Israel At War
Godzilla Observations
It seem that things are going to (and presently are) heating up following the cabinet decision to expand the ground campaign. I have my doubts about Olmert’s resolution to go all the way to the Litani, but we’ll see. Fighting already bloody for the IDF with about 11 dead already.
IDF has adapted to Hezbollah’s use of ATGM by using snipers to provide overwatch. This has had some success, though hasn’t totally stopped the ATGM attacks.
Nasrallah Speech
Key notes:
1. No mention of attacking Tel Aviv
2. Warns Arabs to leave Haifa
3. Invites Lebanese Army to move into Hezbollah territory.
Cabinet Votes To Expand Ground Operations
Israel's security cabinet has ordered a 30-day expanded ground offensive in Lebanon aimed at striking a harder blow against Hezbollah and curbing its cross-border rocket attacks. The decision by PM Ehud Olmert and top ministers may send troops as far as 13 miles - to the Litani River - into southern Lebanon. Nine ministers approved the decision and three abstained, including Vice Premier Shimon Peres. IDF's recommended target: Litani River
IDF Ground Offensive
Things are happening fast, so most of the following is a little old already, though fresh within the past 24 hours. The IDF attempted to make limited advances towards Labouneh, in the eastern sector. The push in Labouneh appears to be an attempt to finish securing the southwestern most corner of Lebanon and link up with elements in Al Bayyadah and Al Mansuri.
A push north in the area west of Bint Jubayl, probably trying to close the gap between the central and eastern sectors.
In the eastern (northern) sector, attacks towards Qantarah, and in the direction of Khiyam. These pushes are probably reconnaissance in force for a larger push tomorrow.
The IDF reportedly has reinforced their presence in the general areas of Marwahin in the western sector, and Sarda in the eastern sector. There were also reports about a concentration of IDF troops in the Manara and Metulla areas on the Israeli side. It is currently estimated that IDF has between 7,000 – 10,000 ground troops in Lebanon with another 30,000 – 40, 000 marshalling on the border. RUMINT indicates that there has been another 50,000 called up, still pending confirmation.
Godzilla Interpretation of ground actions and possible tactics / objectives.
There are no reports on the Al Bayyadah / Al Mansuri areas today. I am suspecting that an IDF push along the costal road has occurred and coincides with the push from the southeast via Majdal Zun, and Labouneh thus sealing off the southwestern most portion of Lebanon.
IDF probes in the eastern and northernmost sector towards the northeast and west. These areas are the closest to the Litani River. They are probably setting up a push to the river.
Based upon the current disposition of the IDF, I suspect that they are trying to launch envelopment around Hezbollah. The eastern (northern) sector will push to the west / northwest and seize the length of the Litani river. The build-up of IDF in the Metulla area will support that assault. The other pincer will come from the western most sector northward past Tyre to the Litani. Reinforcements in the Marwahin area and possibly Shetula will go to support that assault. This will isolate Hezbollah units in southern Lebanon from receiving reinforcements or supplies.
A shallower envelopment will push west and southwest from the Hula area towards the Haddathha area to be met by a push to the northeast from the Ayta ash Shab area as well as a general advance to the north / northwest across the central sector, then drive to connect with the blocking forces to the north and west. This is where the heaviest fighting will occur IMHO as it was a Hezbollah stronghold even during the Israeli occupation in the 1980’s. IDF sources suggest that this operation will take at least a week to accomplish. Unless Hezbollah cracks under the attack, I suspect it may take longer.
IAF Activity
IAF continues to attack multiple sites with no opposition. Israeli Air Force warplanes attacked early Wednesday more than 120 targets throughout Lebanon, among them 80 Hizbullah structures, four rocket launchers, a cave used to hide weapons, 25 roads and seven bridges -most of them on the Litani River. Israeli air strike killed Hizballah politburo member Hassan –Sadr in the Beqaa village of Mashgaran early Wednesday.
Hezbollah Rockets
As of late Wednesday afternoon, about 171 rockets had been fired at Israel since the morning. On the RUMINT side, some rumors regarding the reason Olmert hasn’t more aggressively pushed to the Litani is the fear that to do so would cause Hezbollah to start targeting Tel Aviv.