Israel At War
Godzilla Observations
The shake up in the IDF Northern Command is probably the most significant issue today. First, the Chief of Staff (similar to our Chairman of the Joint Chiefs) is an Air Force General, and carried out the war in the only way he was familiar with – via airpower. The ground commander is an Armor General. Now, there’s nothing wrong with armor, just that it appears he has no clue how to operate in mountainous terrain. Plus, he’s bearing the monkey that an indecisive Israeli government has put on him. Now it appears that a general with infantry experience – what is needed to deal with a ground campaign – is “unofficially “officially taking over. (excerpts below)
Shake Up in the IDF
Chief of staff appoints his deputy Maj.-Gen Moshe Kaplinsky as personal representative in the IDF’s northern command. This appears to indicate that there is dissatisfaction on the part of chief of staff, Lt-Gen Dan Halutz, with the conduct of the war and his lack of confidence in the IDF’s northern command’s ability to carry the campaign forward without on-location supervision.
Current Northern Commander, Maj.-Gen Udi Adam specializes in classical tank warfare. He has never encountered comprehensive warfare in Lebanon’s special conditions against a Hizballah guerrilla force backed by Iranian and Syrian sponsors, trainers and armorers. This may account for the seemingly inability of the ground forces to accomplish much.
When Halutz saw the northern command was incapable of finishing the Bin Jubeil battle, he decided to send Gen. Kaplinsky, 49, into the breach. As former OC Central Command, Kaplinsky’s forte is the disposition of ground forces. He is a former commander of the Golani infantry brigade.
This is not tank country and a better, more experienced commander in this kind of conflict is necessary, as well as a leadership who is not politically pandering or afraid to fight. This gets more interesting….
Halutz, an air force officer who had been criticized for waging an extended air campaign that did not shut down rocket attacks, is ceding authority over the war to Kaplinsky. This overall shift in their war fighting strategy has raised a few eyebrows and suggests that the ground option may be more aggressively pursued in the coming week to force the war back into Israel’s favor. This may possibly be reflected in the increased activity in the western sector (see below).
IDF Ground Offensive
According to the IDF, ground forces have created an 8 km buffer zone along the border. My estimations are fairly close to that, but it does not appear to be a continuous penetration. This could be due to my inability to find reported villages with the resources I have available.
Activity appears to be increasing in the western most sector with IDF pushing into Dibil, just west of Bint Jubayl. Fighting continued in the costal cities of Al Bayyadah and Al Mansuri. This may be linked to yesterdays push into Majdal Zun, suggesting that the IDF may be pushing from Majdal Zun to the ocean but this is not clear yet.
Fighting in the central sector indicates that IDF is pretty much controlling Bint Jubayl after yesterdays capture of a cell asleep at the wheel. Clearly they are not receiving the resistance they once were.
Combat continues to be fierce in the area of At Tayyabah and Kafr Kila, in the eastern sector.
IAF Activity
IAF continues to attack multiple sites with no opposition. Yesterday, they destroyed an apartment that was believed to be the site of a leadership meeting of Hezbollah. With the warning for Lebanonese to stay off the roads at night may permit a higher kill of rocket launching teams.
Hezbollah Rockets
Accuracy and overall volume is down after last weekend’s surge. Daily totals have dropped to around 150/day from the 200+/day over the weekend. Kiryat Shmona still getting hit pretty hard, but most rockets are striking open areas. Nasty rumors regarding chemical warheads for these rockets should things go real bad for Hezbollah continue to circulate.
Powerline Blog has a great chart indicating the rocket numbers generated at ‘Vital Perspectives’
http://vitalperspective.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/rockets_88_2.jpg
However, I can't seem to get this to link or show properly.
