Israel At War
Godzilla Observations
With the Israeli government threatening to hit key Lebanonese infrastructure, I would recommend that they target Hezbollah instead. There are still rumors that the Litani River option is still on the table, but I don’t anticipate anything soon. It does appear that the government’s reluctance to move forward to stop the short range rockets is not going over favorably with the general population. This has come to light even more so after this weekend’s deadly rocket attacks.
Meanwhile, Olmert has issued another statement that the Katyusha rocket fire must be stopped and that Israel will be going forward with operations to accomplish that end. However, Olmert has been talking that talk for a couple of weeks now.
Don’t expect quick results on any cease fire. For one to acceptable to either side, the other much capitulate too much.
Lebanese army calls up reserves, may deploy to south
The Lebanese army called up reservists on Monday ahead of a possible deployment of 15,000 troops to the south of the country south as Israeli troops pull out of territory. I have mixed thoughts, mostly that Hezbollah will find it easy to bully the lesser trained Lebonease army into letting it do what ever it wants to and not really disarming.
IDF Ground Offensive
Activity has picked up since the weekend, but not too much. My open sources are back up. However, pinpointing the towns where activity is taking place is a pain, especially since there are like three different names for each town.
There appears to be a push northward in the western salient over all with a new thrust along the line from Yarin northward to Majdal Zun. IDF is probably securing its positions better. A second push appears to be directed again against Bint Juayl (again) in the central salient. Additional IDF reinforcements have been noted in this area too. Scattered battles have occurred in the eastern salient, with scattered fighting between IDF patrols and Hezbolla. Additionally, some kind of activity (possible commando actions) has been taking place along the coast in the cities of Al Bayyadah Shama and Al Mansuri.
Hezbollah Rockets
Hezbollah gunners launched over 160 rockets at northern Israel on Monday. Of those, over 70 landed in and around the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, with the rest landing in Rosh Pina, Maalot, Nahariya, Safed, and Acre. Five people were lightly injured by the barrages. It appears that the massive barrages have stopped, but have been replaced by steady rocket fire that so far has not been very effective.
I this is believeable, IDF Northern Front Commander Udi Adam said “…. that rocket launching centers are moving north and east." This would reflect attrition and inability to resupply the areas to the south and west, back to the Bekaa Valley.
For what it is worth, Debka is reporting that rocket launches are being coordinated from the Anjar base of the Syrian Army’s 10th Division opposite the Lebanese town of Az Zabdani. It is reportedly manned by Iranian and Hizballah officers, who take their orders from a Syrian military intelligence center in Damascus to which Iranian Revolutionary Guards intelligence officers are attached. This is not surprising, in fact I would expect something like this. Such a key facility would naturally be placed in a ‘safe’ area.