[SunkenCiv]

thanks for that link to Varifrank. This summed it up nicely:

"Why would any government be interested in sending a message of their own weakness at the beginning of a shooting war"? Well, you do it because you want the enemy to commit. You want the enemy to be in the best place for you to deal with them, not in a place where they can defend or they can retreat from.

And the only tactics they have -- keep shooting the same missiles and bringing down retaliatory raids (the IAF has always been superb; a few years ago I read that the IAF is actually capable of running more sorties per day than the US military), try to sell the world on the false premise that the terrorists are civilian victims, and keep rushing to meet the IDF in largely hopeless firefights.

This whole operation actually benefits Syria to some extent, which is the reason there has been no response until now, nor will there be. Syria won't talk to anyone who has any chance of bringing ab out a diplomatic solution to avoid post-annihilation (of Hizbullah) recriminations. Syria might go ahead if Assad et al thought there was any chance of success, but Syria sure doesn't want Hizbollah to be more of a partner to Iran, and sure doesn't want the surviving Hizzies to flee into Syria.

If Egypt makes a move on the southern border, we'll see Syria enter the war as well. But the Egyptian gov't doesn't care to risk a massive defeat (and the negation of the treaty with Israel) because the Islamofascists (funded by Saudi Arabia and perhaps other factions funded by Iran) will start an uprising and civil war. The Egyptians don't look good when the terrorists blow up Egyptian hotels in Sinai.

[Defiant]

Varifrank's analysis was written several days ago, before this latest fighting. I thought it was prescient that he thought that fireworks in Bekaa would precede a dash across Lebanon to cut off Hezbollah. Today, we had the fireworks, and the troops are massing on the border. I hope the rest of it falls into place. Won't it be sweet seeing these terrorists getting mopped up, day after day, as Syria stays on the sidelines, twisting in the wind, and Iran reveals that it is powerless to harm Israel. It might even make Russia more willing to help us on nukes in 30 days, after they see that their pal Iran is really a pussy.