Brown will probably also do worse in Dayton than you might think. Wright Patt Air Force Base has a big effect on the area, and Brown's views on the military and it's use aren't going to be very popular with a large portion of those living there.
I work at Wright Pat.
What is the county name that Toledo is in? mercer? Something like that? Meigs?
That's one of the 5 I figured he'd probably win.
Frankling (Columbus), Lake (Cleveland), Athens (Dirty Hippie Land), Montgomery (Dayton) and whatever the county near Toledo is.