[Jameison]

" Notwithstanding a recent Gallup Poll that gave former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani an edge among Republicans, Sen. John McCain is the Republican front-runner. "

How can McCain be the "front-runner" when Rudy has bested McCain in practically every poll that matters? :

"For months, the media have treated their favored candidate, maverick Sen. John McCain, as the man to beat. But the basis wasn't the polls, but the now-clearly-mistaken assumption that Rudy wouldn't run - plus a willful adherence to a false storyline that social conservatives could never accept a Giuliani candidacy.

Yet the polls show that Rudy is the favorite not just of Republicans, but of conservatives. And my recent conversations - on and off the record - with state-level GOP activists shows that these folks range from enthusiastic to at least open to America's Mayor making a run for the Oval Office. "


http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/rudy__the_front_runner_opedcolumnists_ryan_sager.htm

[Blackirish]

The author also states "Mr. Giuliani, meanwhile, has yet to give a clear signal that he is really running"

What does he think that Rudy is crisscrossing the nation raising money for Repub candidates because he likes the resteraunts in Iowa or downstate Illinois ?

[Soul Seeker]

IMO, it's between Rudy and Allen w/Tancredo as a spoiler if he runs.

The reason conservatives like Rudy is because he's tough on Defense no matter media critism, and he doesn't seek to marginalize them. Maybe he did in past? Don't know, but he doesn't now. Whereas McCain gets off on tweaking us every chance he gets it.

I think the Liberal activists in the primaries have to make a choice. If they really want a shot to get a Lib on the ticket, Rudy's their best shot. Conservatives wouldn't be HAPPY about his liberalism, but most will hold their nose and vote on an '08 ticket because he doesn't hate them and he's solid on WOT. If McCain is their representative choice, they are screwed. McCain hates us, we hate him. He loses.

Allen is the default choice for conservatives. He's not the solid charismatic conservative everyone wants, but he's positioning himself as the most tolerable to the conservative base fiscally, socially, to Hawks, to borders. Conservatives are holding out endorsements hoping a stronger chice emerges, but if not, Allen gets the pick and their support. Newt has too much baggage. Romney remains an unknown. Pence screwed himself with his amnesty proposal.

Then we have Tancredo. If he runs. I'd be surprised if he finished first, but depending on the unity of conservatives and Liberals and their selection of choices, he could squeak in as a second or third place finisher at times. Respectful enough finish to influence a change of policy on this issue at the top. Plus, border security is an issue that bridges Liberals and conservatives in the voting public.

I think it's Allen's to lose. Conservatives like Rudy more, but Allen's more right on the issues generally and in the end it's the issues that are going to matter in the primary. If he's lousy as a campaigner, however, that could create an opportunity for Rudy.