Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Allegra
I understand fully that you are keeping your ears to the ground, but I think the phrase "CONFLICT THAT WILL SPARE NO ONE INCLUDING THOSE WHOSE MILITARY POWER IS NOW TEMPTING THEM TO PLAY WITH FIRE" is actually not only directed at Israel.

Of course the Saudi Arabians can't say that they side with Israel, but I'm pretty certain that they actually would like to see Iran's proxy get beaten. But like in all Near Eastern politics (and maybe not only there) you don't get any points for siding with the loser. So if Hezbollah can survive the campaign, and in the eyes of the Muslim world Hezbollah is the winner if it survives, Saudi will change its stance - this is probably the beginning of that.

It all puts some severe challenges to Olmert's gov't.

First of all Israel needs to win militarily, but the realities on the ground makes it unlikely that this can be accomplished in a quick campaign. Thus, Israel needs to win time. The best way of doing that is probably to appear not to be winning too big - at least in the eyes of the Europeans and the UN (China & Russia).

On the other hand the support that Israel (and especially the US) appeared to gain in the Arab world will weaken as soon as it appears that Hezbollah and its sponsors may end up winners.
To stop that development Israel needs to be seen to humiliate Hezbollah.
A difficult situation.
85 posted on 07/29/2006 4:26:45 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 70 | View Replies ]


To: ScaniaBoy

14:18 French foreign minister criticizes Israel`s rejection of 72-hour truce (AP)
14:02 Katyushas strike Ma`alot, causing some damage but no injuries (Israel Radio)
13:59 Kuwaiti environmentalist group: Israel must compensate Lebanon for damage (AP)
13:58 Officials believe missiles fired at Afula were Syrian, not Iranian (Israel Radio)
13:17 Rice: Hezbollah ministers` moves on truce, disarmament is `positive step` (Reuters)
12:53 Dichter: Israel holds Lebanese gov`t fully accountable for Hezbollah`s actions (AP)
12:49 Chancellor Merkel skeptical about Germany joining int`l force for Lebanon (AP)
12:12 Report: 3 women critically wounded in shooting at Seattle Jewish center (Agencies)
12:10 Seattle mayor: Jewish center attack was `hateful act` by man `acting alone` (Reuters)
12:01 Israel: No need for 72-hour truce, as already opened humanitarian corridor (Reuters)
11:36 Rocket lands in Safed area; no injuries (Haaretz)
11:07 WZO chair Ze`ev Bielski expresses deep shock at Seattle murder (Haaretz)
10:51 First U.S. boat carrying aid to Lebanon by sea arrives in Beirut (Reuters)
10:20 Man arrested for shootings at Seattle Jewish center named as Naveed Afzal Haq (AP)
09:51 Australian police clash with pro-Lebanon protesters mobbing Australian PM (AP)
09:16 15-year-old girl drowns, 21-year-old man stabbed at Ashdod beach birthday party (Itim)
08:55 An additional IDF soldier seriously hurt in Bint Jbail clashes with Hezbollah (Haaretz)
08:39 6 IDF soldiers hurt in clashes with Hezbollah in Bint Jbail overnight (Itim)
07:59 Seattle authorities treat fatal Jewish center shooting as a `hate crime` (Reuters)
07:27 Condoleezza Rice leaves Malaysia and heads for Israel (Reuters)
07:25 IDF attack Gaza-Egypt border tunneling sites, knock out electricity in Rafah (Reuters)
07:14 UN`s Annan plans meeting for potential contributors to int`l force for Lebanon (AP)
06:12 Basketball: Macc. TA star Maceo Baston bolts club, joins Indiana Pacers (Army Radio)
06:06 IAF raid destroys bridge in Lebanon`s eastern Bekaa (AP)


86 posted on 07/29/2006 4:31:19 AM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Act Justly, Love Mercy, and Walk Humbly With God Micah 6:8)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 85 | View Replies ]

To: ScaniaBoy
Very well stated. The 'moderate' Arab states don't want Iran as the big dog, but if it looks like that is who will come out on top, they will be the first to show their support.

Kinda like dims - We did it first!

87 posted on 07/29/2006 4:36:27 AM PDT by mathluv (Never Forget!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 85 | View Replies ]

To: ScaniaBoy; All; AdmSmith; TexKat; jhp; Dog; Coop; jeffers; nuconvert; Arizona Carolyn; ...

Olmert faces an exact replica of the Cuban Missile Crisis, except the approaches to the launch sites is via ground, not sea.

Iranian and Syrian missiles have been deployed too close to Israel's borders to be defended against.

Unless Olmert and company come up with a better plan, which I have yet to see any evidence of, they need to blockade the missile flow in such a way as to directly confront Iran and Syria, just as the US did in 1962.

Not engaging Hezbollah with overwhelming ground force brings ululation from every Muslim desperate for a victory since 1947, i.e. all of them. The Muslim street is begining to affect sideliners, like Saudi Arabia.

If I were Olmert:

1. I'd put round the clock air over the main pass roads inside Lebanon, and vaporize any and everything coming across from Syria. Publicly and deliberately. Same for any vehicle or person headed south from Beirut or any other port or coastal area.

2. I'd call up every man woman and chlld in Israel with military training, and their dogs too. This is a confrontation, and if the enemy does not back down, Israel will need all of them.

3. I'd bury Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon under no more than one third of my now-fully mobilized ground force. Cut them off, pin them to the Litani, and exterminate every last one that didn't swim the Litani fast enough to get out of my way.

4. I'd issue a public statement for the benefit of Iran, Syria and any other Muslim coutry that was feeling froggy, to the effect of, "Israel will not tolerate rockets and missiles, which might carry WMD, within X miles of our border, under any circumstances what-so-ever. ALL options are on the table and will remain under careful consideration until and unless those missiles are removed."

Israel faces a "live free or die" moment here. If they back down from this challenge, then the threat of future similar escalations guarantee a safe haven for any and all terrorists who wish to engage Israel for the forseeable future.



96 posted on 07/29/2006 5:32:45 AM PDT by jeffers
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 85 | View Replies ]

To: ScaniaBoy

" support that Israel (and especially the US) appeared to gain in the Arab world will weaken as soon as it appears that Hezbollah and its sponsors may end up winners."

Quite true...
The "Hero's" of the Arab world are all DEAD, and anyone who can stand against the west is seen as the new "Leader".

With a constant parade of bad press, and supposed Israeli "Indecision", the Arabs are beginning to rally to Nasrallah....


136 posted on 07/29/2006 6:41:30 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Terrorism-You Reap What You Appease........)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 85 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson