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The toppling of the strong man (Saddam) has created a power vacuum. If the US pulled out, there would be a LOT of bullets flying, and probably less than 10% of them would be at Israel. Like Africa, much of the middle east still operates on a tribal system. There are borders, but within those borders, no common culture or sense of unity. People are first of their tribe, and then only marginally a member of the country.

I'm thinking that without US presence, you'd see Iran invade Iraq, Turkey sweep in from the Northwest, and they'd look to wipe out the Iraqis and take over the oil fields. UAE would get plenty nervous, as would Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Iran would use Syria to go after Israel, but would be occupied in Iraq, and Israel would clean up all the way to Turkey. The Palestinians would create some trouble, and Israel wouldn't feel like messing with them, so air bombing them to submission, then retaking the land. Iraq puts up a good fight, but the Kurds, catching it from both ends, get the worst of it. Other Iraqi tribes fight the Iranians collectively, but have a tough time of it. Opposition in Iran starts a civil war there.

Pakistan might make a move towards Iran, if they think they're weak enough. Afghanistan can't export anything but heroin. It all shakes down with reorganized borders and several new strong men, each swearing to wipe Israel from the face of the map.