A Middle East chess match

Washington Times ^ | July 27, 2006 | Thomas Lipscomb

[WaterDragon]

The Israeli military has already been surprised by the carefully prepared defenses of Hezbollah, just across the Lebanese border. Their leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and his Iranian sponsors have clearly not been wasting their time over the past six years. Israel's military has been facing first-rate defenses that are breaking up the effectiveness of invading Israeli armor with both fixed defenses like mines and IEDs and well-employed flexible defenses like anti-tank missiles. Israeli armor is already responding with a quick fix, like installing belly armor to save their highly trained crews if they can't keep their tanks from being knocked out. But a key element in understanding the underlying Hezbollah strategy may be paying attention to the kind of missiles being used up to this point in the engagement. (snip)

[MNJohnnie]

And pershaps Mr Lipscomb you are simply a drama queen trying to make the operation seem more dramatics and high stakes then it really is.

I have a higher probablity of being right then Mr Lipscomb does.

[Paleo Conservative]

Perhaps one dimensional chess.

[Wuli]

It may, at some time, become necessary for the IDF to announce a need for a general evaction of southern Lebanon, with 48 hours notice, followed by a week of total carpet bombing with some rented B52s.

War is war and neither Israel nor anyone who actually wants peace in the Middle East can leave Hezbolla in place anywhere in southern Lebanon.

[capt. norm]

Seems like they are rotating between positive reports and negative ones.

I read one and feel better, then the next one is negative and depressing.

[GSlob]

There is a useful question to ask: where did the hezbollai get this level of training and tactical competence? Neither the Syrians nor the Iranians have been known to be particularly good.

[SJackson]

If you'd like to be on this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

High volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. also

2006israelwar or WOT

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[gafusa]

This type of depth defense they are practicing, is very Soviet/Russian. Russia operates military facilities in Syria, and has helped train the Syrians, and has sold advanced equipment to Iran, and not doubt provided significant training and other support to Iran, especially the IRG, and probably directly to HezbAllah.

[r9etb]

It may, at some time, become necessary for the IDF to announce a need for a general evaction of southern Lebanon, with 48 hours notice, followed by a week of total carpet bombing with some rented B52s.

One thing about which Lipscomb is correct in this article is the fact that Hezbollah has prepared for this. Note, for example, the bunker that took 23 tons of bombs without being breached.

So carpet bombing -- which is admittedly a viscerally satisfying suggestion -- is probably not going to be effective.

Lipscomb's remaining hand-wringing is utterly irrelevant at this point -- Israel is committed. What happens, happens. And FWIW, I have no doubt that the locations of the major Hezzie installations are known.

[pgyanke]

Should I answer you in Cyrillic?

[EQAndyBuzz]

I have no doubt that the minutes the bunker busters arrive you will see trucks heading to Syria very fast.

[Paleo Conservative]

One thing about which Lipscomb is correct in this article is the fact that Hezbollah has prepared for this. Note, for example, the bunker that took 23 tons of bombs without being breached.

And people say the US shouldn't have nuclear bunker buster bombs.

[Dog]

What the heck you talking about...

Mr Lipscomb is one of the better reads you will find.

Johnnie do a google search on his articles..

[GSlob]

Cyrillics or hyeroglyphicals have not been particularly good either, at least recently. Quality has to come from recent successful experience.

[Wuli]

The empty terrain afterwards will leave little for Hezbolla to hide behind when the IDF follows the bleeching with troops. Hezbolla can then only hide inside the bunkers, but seeing their entrances and getting at them will be much easier. If they then stay in their bunker, a running line of napalm will achieve a fitting crematorium. Or they can come out and pretend to fight which is unlikely given the cowards that they truly are.

[tet68]

Hezbolla can then only hide inside the bunkers, but seeing their entrances and getting at them will be much easier. If they then stay in their bunker, the IDF's Rachel Corrie Heavy Equipment Brigade will soon berm them up for a nice long sleep. ( May the peace of the grave be upon them. )

[JasonC]

It is precisely bombing that won't remotely work. See, the bad guys just get into their holes, deep, and it does nothing. There is this thing in military matters called "combined arms". It is the idea that every known threat has a counter, but the whole bag of them at once doesn't. If you hide in a hole, infantry can get right up to the hole. It takes ground ops to dig them out, or to force them to come out where bombs and artillery can hurt them. There is no such thing as a clean antiseptic pure tech victory from 10,000 feet.

[JasonC]

If they send it. So far, they aren't. Too weak in the will-bone.

[JasonC]

Dream on. It takes full spectrum forces.

[EQAndyBuzz]

"Dream on. It takes full spectrum forces."

Nahh, a few well placed Golani and some snipers. The hezzies will come out dazed and confused and then heads will start exploding.

I hope Sheepherder Smith is there to see it.