It's going to be a very tight race.
What really hurt Arnold is that he put those conservative propositions on the ballot and called the special election, where he took on the unions, tried to curtail spending, get a fair redistricting -- all of which would have been devastating for the Dems. So the unions really came out and trashed Arnold, they were running anti-Arnold ads 24/7 about every 5 minutes.
What is remarkable, is that given that, Arnold is doing as well as he is. If it hadn't been him using his political capital to pass conservative propositions, he would be sailing to an easy reelection.
Most conservatives finally did figure this out, that's why he has 85% of the Republicans supporting him -- at least according to the poll. I hope the other 15% and third party voters will realize the devastation Angelides would call and get out and vote for Arnold.
... and Tom.
Californian's do seem to have short memories. They are also distracted by small shiny objects.
Arnold will win the election (as long as he doesn't do anything to rile the unions) because Califonian's want to vote for Arnold's Hollywood smile.
dung.
P.S. I do enjoy they way Arnold's campaign is using Steve Westly's mud from the primaries to attack Angelides. The slug line on the new commercials? "What if Steve Westly was right?!?!?"
I voted for all the propositions he sponsored. I think the main problem is that he put them on the ballot, and then endured months of negative ads from the unions without adequately responding to them.