The Syrians have had a history of supporting whoever allows them the most leverage in their neighbor. For awhile during the Lebanese civil war it was the Druze - when the New Jersey shelled the Druze command post the commanding Syrian general was killed. Hezbollah has blossomed in the power vacuum in the two decades since then.
People tend to forget that for most of that time Syria wasn't Iran's "prison b!tch" as Mark Steyn put it, but her competitor for influence within the warring tribes of Lebanon. Since the withdrawal of formal Syrian forces after the assassination of Hariri, they've been scrambling to maintain that influence by acting as a conduit for Iranian weapons. That has put young Mr. Assad in a truly unenviable position - he supports Hezbollah or he is overthrown; he gives them too much support and he is overthrown.
What the author is suggesting is that by offering him protection against outside influence he may maintain his precarious hold on power. However, inasmuch as his probable successor would be Moslem Brotherhood and not allied with the Iranians one might argue that that would also reduce Iranian influence. What it would give us instead might be just as radical but less aggressive. So goes the argument. Personally I'm suspending judgment until we see what happens after Israel withdraws.
Since so many "moderate" regimes are as friendly as their fears of being overthrown by their much more Islamist populace permits them to be, perhaps coming to face an openly hostile Muslim nation might not be such a bad thing. So Syria is taken over by the Muslim fanatics? Time to face down Syria. The radicals are not going away; I'd rather face them now while we are strong and they are relatively weak. Perhaps we could flip them one by one.
I agree. I don't see the urgency for us to go in there and upset the apple cart. This is a real opportunity. Assad is a wimp. I can't see how this guy sleeps soundly at night.
The Syrians are talking tough, but I don't think they want to engage the Israelis.
Also, how can anyone protect Assad? How can the Americans prop him up?
I agree, if he comes out against Hizbollah he's dead meat.
I'd love to see an all out war among the Arabs Sunni vs Shia countries..but it won't happen, but there is clearly a re-allignment...and the young people in these countries who are educated must like the idea of choices and the good life...in their life....
Very interesting times....but these war mongers asking Bush to "act" is irresponsible.
IF they attack us, that's another story.