AMLO ALERT! Mexican Leftist Coalition Threatens to Radicalize Protests (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | July 22, 2006 | Jorge Octavio Ochoa ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

Coalition threatens to harden protest mobilizations

Fernández Noroña, spokesman for the For the Good of All Coalition,¹ asserts that, if after the meeting of July 30th,² the PAN Party continues to reject the opening of the electoral packets,³ the coalition will initiate "energetic radical actions."

Gerardo Fernández Noroña, spokesman for the For the Good of All coalition, made known that after the protest meeting that will take place Sunday July 30th, "if the PAN Party continues to reject the opening of the packets, we are going to make important decisions for absolutely forceful and energetic radical actions that will not leave any doubt that we are not going to permit an imposition [of an unjust electoral result]."

The For the Good of All coalition spokesman added that 1988 is not 2006 "and in that PAN is right,"⁴ since this time there is not going to be an imposition [of an unjust electoral result].

Fernández Noroña assured that Sunday July 30th will be a point of departure for the country, given that Mexico will see one of the most impressive and numerous protests that ever has been carried out in our modern history. He put forth that they are counting upon the support of between 2.5 and 3 million people who will demand a vote by vote, precinct by precinct recount. Equally, Fernández Noroña criticized the attitude assumed by the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) which, he said, instead of presenting a report on the electoral process of July 2, delivered a report in which it dedicated itself to giving a response, point by point, to all the arguments presented by the [For the Good of All] coalition. This demonstrates a partial attitude, in that they acted as an official defender of the candidate of the National Action Party (PAN).

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Translator's Notes:

¹The "For the Good of All" coalition is the political coalition of Lopez Obrador's Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), the Convergence for Democracy (Convergencia), and the Labor Party (PT - Partido de Trabajo) that supported AMLO's presidential candidacy in the recent electoral campaign.

²The For the Good of All coalition has scheduled a massive demonstration for Sunday July 30 in Mexico City.

³The "electoral packets" are the casillas, which are the sealed and crated packets containing the actual ballots cast in the July 2 presidential election. They are counted on the evening of the election, after voting has concluded, in the presence of representatives from all major parties, who must sign the official "act" (Acta) which is sent to the Electoral District headquarters and later to the Federal Electoral Institute. Under Mexican law the electoral packets cannot be reopened unless there is evidence of fraud or damage to the "act" reporting the vote count. Lopez Obrador and his supporters are demanding that this law be superceded by a total recount of the votes.

⁴1988 is a year recognized by most Mexicans as an instance of the theft of a presidential election when PRI candidate Carlos Salinas Gortari defeated Cuauhtemoc Cardenas. PAN has said repeatedly that there is no need to reopen all the electoral packets because "this is not 1988."

[StJacques]

This is starting to get really, really dangerous. The Electoral Tribunal has been handling its work in a methodical manner, taking the various and separate protests which AMLO and the PRD and Felipe Calderon and the PAN party have entered regarding adjustments to the vote count and the results of their work, while not released with any official judgement, are clearly not going the way AMLO and the Mexican Left want them to go. So now they're very close to threatening to tear everything down if they don't get their way.

I truly think this is a pressure cooker sitting on the stove right now and it's going to explode if something is not done to cool things down. July 30, a week from tomorrow, is a very important day to watch.

[StJacques]

A Mexican post-election ping for you all.

Other articles translated can be located using a keyword search for the unique keyword -- STJTRANSLATION

[Mike Darancette]

REVOLUTION!!!

[brain bleeds red]

So basically Mexican socialists are threatening violence if their power is taken away from them - by the people of Mexico. It would be funny if these MexiCommies weren't so bloodthirsty.

[traditional1]

I hope there IS a Mexican Revolution....they should call up the Reserves (20 million of 'em that are now in the U.S. illegally, awaiting the call of their compadre's)

[tet68]

July 30, a week from tomorrow

We'll be watching.

Thanks for your efforts.
t.

[StJacques]

"So basically Mexican socialists are threatening violence if their power is taken away from them - by the people of Mexico."

Yes brain bleeds red, that's basically it. Just take a look at this pic of their demonstration outside the Federal Electoral Institute in Mexico City on July 6.





These are not just "liberals" who look and sound like socialists, these are the real thing. They will tell you so themselves, as you can see.

[brain bleeds red]

The funny thing is, I have the feeling this is one of the fairest elections Mexico has seen in years. That alone is a good thing, but understandably so, it angers those who can only acquire power through non-democratic means. So naturally they will kick and bite, all the way to the election results, and then we will probably see orchestrated riots(terrorism for political purposes), and other assorted violence.

[mjolnir]

But there's a good side to this, too.

i honestly never thought Mexico's institutions, including the PRI, would respond with this amount of strength and maturity, but they have. Despite the real danger these populist demagogues represent, I have a feeling it will not be able to sustain itself against such steadfast patience any more than a baby can cry at peak decibels forever.

[SAJ]

Thanks again, Saint.

BTW, couple of tips for you (if you don't already have them) regarding finding out way before any news reports just how serious things are becoming. One site to find out what the punters think is happening is www.tradesports.com (with which I have no affiliation, except as a punter). Click on 'Politics'at left on homepage, then select 'Mexican Elections', then 'Presidential Winner'. This pool is not yet settled, reasonably enough, and ObraGore is currently quoted 3.6 bid at 4.1, 1 up. He was running 4.8 bid at 6.0, 5 up mostly this past week.

The other site to check is the CME, where Peso futures are traded. www.cme.com, then click on CME Globex Flash Quotes for a 10-minute delayed quote on Peso (and every other currency, of course, plus Eurodollars and indices).

During elecion night and the aftermath next 3 days, I noticed tradesports' mkt movement running about 10-15 minutes ahead of CME. Go figure, eh? But tradesports has quite a number of punters in Mexico, and I suppose some of them are/were right on top of things.

Many thanks once more for your great info!

[StJacques]

I like your use of the word "maturity" in that post mjolnir. I would definitely agree that confronting a controversy like this is going to force Mexicans to "grow up" and learn that either they support the rule of law or they face anarchy. Obviously it can take a turn for the worse and, once the Left goes off the deep end and lets the genie out of the bottle, it could potentially take years to get back to normal. But sooner or later no one can make the decision for the Mexicans, they must make it themselves.

Do you know who I think is truly most threatened by all of this? The PRI. If AMLO and company force this out into the streets the PRI will not be able to stand on the sidelines and they will be split amongst themselves as to whether to support PAN or AMLO. I would predict that, in that event, they would split 2/3 to 1/3 in favor of PAN and the rule of law. But they would cease to exist as a force in Mexican politics ever afterwards.

And I am wondering if that kind of result is exactly what Mexico really needs to mature. Maybe their multi-party political system will not sustain the political peace. It could be that they might have to make the transition to a two-party system in order for their democracy to work. I really don't know, but it is something I think about.

[StJacques]

Those are some interesting insights SAJ. I've just loaded tradesports.com in another browser instance and I'm looking it over now.

I wonder what odds those British bookies are giving on Calderon right now?

[SAJ]

Saint, you must not be looking at the right page. The specific page you want is:

this one

Calderon is quoted 96.1 bid at 96.5, 3 by 1 right now. Max value for this type of market is 100, when winner is formally declared. Min is (duh!) zero.

BTW, these guys are fellow Celts, they're Irishmen -- not Brits (g!). Straight as a string, too.

[StJacques]

Okay, that is a different page. Thanks!

[StJacques]

SAJ, tell me. The bidding and offering for Lopez Obrador at the upper right on that page. As I read that, it's saying the odds are increasing very slightly in his favor right now. Obviously only rising to a level that still puts it at a very very distant remote possibility, but still rising as I view it. Do I have that right? Has there been a rise in the odds for his presidency? From 1.6 to 3.6? Lol! Ain't gonna happen I know, but just asking.

[Shuttle Shucker]

I'm not sure why you think the PRI would cease to exist as a political player if it temporarily split its allegiances between ObraGore and Calderon? Meanwhile I think the three+ party system that Mexico has is a major reason why its national debt is just 24% of annual GDP whereas ours is over 70% because all pork barrelers have to do up here is buy out TWO different political parties.

I think a major concern the PAN might want to have right now is the international repercussions involved with excessively violently cracking down on the Leftist thugs the next time they attack Felipe's car or even him. If the new government comes off as overly harsh and oppressive, investment might return to China (where folks figure that kinda stuff's par for the course). However, it also looks bad to let the Leftist tail wag the national dog at the expense of the economy.

We should promulgate the "ObraGore" name in Mexico as it's clever, and helpful for those seeking to get a better handle on what motivates that Commie...

[hispanarepublicana]

I hope there IS a Mexican Revolution....they should call up the Reserves (20 million of 'em that are now in the U.S. illegally, awaiting the call of their compadre's)

I wonder what would happen if there were a revolution down there and the U.S. backed the Mexican Administration.....I mean, I wonder what the illegals here would do in terms of reacting to the U.S.'s support of the Mexican government....Of course, Venezuela would back the rebels in Mexico without a doubt.

[rottndog]

So now they're very close to threatening to tear everything down if they don't get their way.

This is so typical of leftists throughout the world...If they don't get what they want at the ballot box, violence (or the threat thereof) often follows.

[Pikachu_Dad]

How do you make a 'ping' list like that with a bunch of names in it?

[StJacques]

Regarding the PRI and its future in the event of widespread political upheaval brought on by the left, it seems to me that this kind of upheaval would force people to take sides. It could possibly lead to the destruction of the PRI as an independent political entity, but to be honest, I doubt that. At the very least, it could cause enough defections from the PRI to make it a minor player, after which it would have to recognize it could not win the presidency in a three-way contest with PAN and the PRD et al., and then it would do what the Labor Party and the Convergence have had to do, which is to join in coalition with another party in a presidential campaign.

I can envision more moderate elements within the PRD, such as Lazaro Cardenas Batel in Michoacan, encouraging reaching out to the PRI so they could dump the truly radical Labor Party -- these are the true Commies in Mexican politics -- from their coalition and thereby make the PRD a more viable force for the presidency. I doubt that would work, but I don't doubt that some PRD members will try to make it happen. It seems to me that the logical partner for the PRI is PAN, even though some of the PAN's free market policies do not sit well with many PRI members, not to mention their resentment of PAN for taking their privileges away. But PAN is a law and order party and the only thing the PRI has stood for over the past few decades has been order, at least the only moral thing.

And as an even more remote possibility, but not impossible, it could be the PRD that splits and its more moderate elements could return to the PRI. I don't doubt that there are PRI leaders right now trying to woo these moderate elements away, Lazaro Cardenas Batel has had to explain his own extra-party contacts this past week as something other than a "betrayal" of the PRD.

I think if you're a Mexican politician right now, life is anything but boring.