Hu had better not tempt his own fate by being so bold against N. Korea lest he wind up the former leader, deposed of by Chinese 'democracy'.
President Hu, who became the director of the CCP Leading Group on Foreign Affairs (LGFA) in early 2003, deserves much of the criticism leveled against Beijing’s DPRK policy. China-North Korean relations cooled perceptibly during the tenure of Hu’s predecessors—ex-president Jiang Zemin and former premier Zhu Rongji—both of whom did not hide their contempt for Kim.
In a nutshell all this combined means HU is really a military outsider and doesn't want to ruffle the old school's feathers. If he does, he's screwed. It means he doesn't have control of the military nor does he have a network of 'guanxi' within the military like his predessors did...
here ya go...
Sorry.
I think it's dawning on the Chinese government a bit late that although it was a clever ploy to proliferate missile technology in the direction of Iran and North Korea to vex the United States, the vessels chosen for the mission are quite a bit less stable than Chinese foreign policy would desire. But they can't take the toys back at this point.
Their bet is that NK will prove enough of a problem to its neighbors and the U.S. that China may sit back and wait for others to invest the blood to solve this little problem. That used to look like a sound bet but these days it appears the calculation might have shaved the odds a little fine.
They'd gladly trade North Korea to the West if the result was the reclamation of Taiwan. I think that's what they're holding out for. To solve, or help solve, North Korea would be to give away a major bargaining chip. I don't think they're ready to do that yet,
>>If he does, he's screwed. It means he doesn't have control of the military nor does he have a network of 'guanxi' within the military like his predessors did...
He does have the control. He promoted tens of his own generals. Controlling PLA is pretty simple: military spending and promotion.
China would not move unless there is an unmistakable sign that its economy or national security is at significant risk due to N. Korean crisis.
That is, either the West is squeezing China economically(financial sanction, raised tariffs, or relocation of production facilities)
or Japan is serious about scrapping Article 9 of Japanese Constitution and expanding military power.
Another case is that N. Korea creates unacceptable provocation, such as attempting nuclear test or trying to shoot at U.S. or Japanese (or even S. Korean) military.
China must be confident that it has great intel sources and connections in N. Korea, so that they can smell trouble the moment it develops. I am not sure if such strategy is still wise. N. Korea has become brittle. It may look impenetrable and hard. However, with instability rising, a few coincidental domestic events can spin N. Korean situation out of control, before China has the time to react properly. Of course, some 150K to 200K Chinese troops stationed across N. Korea's northern border could be used to handle such a situation. However, it could complicate the situation by provoking response from U.S. and S. Korea. Most S. Koreans won't tolerate PLA moving into N. Korea en masse. S. Korea and U.S. will move up across DMZ to beat China's rush to Pyongyang. It could become pretty dangerous. Not only militarily, but also economically. Chinese economy could go south.
The surgical palace coup by pro-China faction would be ideal for China, but I am not sure if they can control the situation once the safety pin is finally removed from the grenade called N. Korea.
Maybe that is why China is dragging its feet. China does not think it can control the course of events once Kim Jong-il is gone and the tumultuous change ensues. Since they are not sure, they just drag out situation in N. Korea by providing some economic aids, until Kim Jong-il finally leaves them no other options except to remove him.
Why tinker with something they do not know what to do about? Buy time and just hope that they get lucky. That is my take.