Posted on 07/20/2006 12:43:45 PM PDT by SmithL
A University of Tennessee poll conducted earlier this month shows Bob Corker holds leads over his Republican primary rivals and Democratic U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in the state's U.S. Senate race, though one in five voters is undecided.
Races between Ford, the presumptive Democratic nominee, and Corker's Republican opponents, former congressmen Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant, would be a statistical dead-heat, according to the poll of 501 registered voters.
Corker's GOP opponents say the polling is flawed and conducted before their own television ads have had a chance to take effect.
Corker, former mayor of Chattanooga, is the preference over Ford by 42 percent to 35 percent, the poll shows, which is outside the poll's 4.4 percent margin of error. Twenty percent remain undecided.
"Corker leads strongly in East and Middle Tennessee, while Ford has only a six-point edge in West Tennessee," said Michael M. Gant, who conducted the survey, sponsored in part by the News Sentinel, for UT's Social Science Research Institute.
Spokesman Ben Mitchell said Corker is focused on winning the GOP primary, "but at the end of the day what makes Bob Corker the best candidate in the primary is also what makes him the best candidate in the general election. There are three candidates who have spent their careers in Washington and then there's Bob Corker, who has a lifetime of experience in Tennessee."
Michael Powell, a senior adviser to Ford, called Corker's lead "statistically insignificant," especially after outspending his GOP rivals by nearly 6-to-1.
"It's of no concern," Powell said of Corker's poll performance. "The dynamic will change, whoever the Republicans nominate."
Ford, who is attempting to become the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction, enjoys 77 percent support among blacks. Among white voters, Corker leads Ford 48 percent to 27 percent.
"Corker is much stronger among independents," Gant noted, with a 42 percent-to-26 percent advantage.
"This race has not been fully joined," Powell said. "There's been a food fight in the Republican primary for several months.
"Harold Ford intends to put forth an agenda for change and to talk about big issues and to talk about issues that are worthy of the people."
In the Aug. 3 GOP primary, Corker leads the pack of three Republicans seeking to replace retired Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.
Among respondents identifying themselves as Republicans, Corker received 37 percent support to Bryant's 26 percent and Hilleary's 15 percent. However, Gant cautioned that the smaller sample size for the GOP-only question increased the margin of error to plus or minus 7 percent.
Mitchell said the results are consistent with the Corker campaign's internal polling. The Bryant campaign, on the other hand, dismissed the results.
"The only poll that matters is on Election Day," Bryant spokesman Andrew Shulman. "Unlike both of our opponents, Ed Bryant keeps building momentum that will lead to victory on Election Day."
Hilleary's camp blasted the methodology of the poll and contended that the campaign's internal polling puts Hilleary in second place.
"Our scientifically valid internal polling has Van Hilleary solidly in second place in a competitive race," spokeswoman Jennifer Coxe said.
"We don't put much stock in fly-by-night polls done by volunteer college students that take 15 days to complete with faulty methodology. Not to mention the majority of this so-called poll was conducted prior to Van Hilleary (commercials) being on television."
Hilleary and Bryant only recently have begun running campaign ads to combat the well-funded Corker's dominance of the airwaves.
The poll indicates there are major differences between the state's three Grand Divisions.
Corker is strongest in East Tennessee, where half the Republicans are in his camp. Bryant has the support of 50 percent of the Republicans from West Tennessee, but only 9 percent in East Tennessee. Hilleary trails in all three Grand Divisions, with support ranging from 24 percent in Middle Tennessee to 2 percent in West Tennessee.
In addition to gauging support for each candidate, the poll also probed into issues that divide the candidates and the electorate.
More than six in 10 supporters of Republican candidates approve of the job President Bush is doing and believe the economy is stronger now than it was a year ago. Only 15 percent of Ford's supporters approve of Bush's performance, and only 19 percent think the economy is getting better.
A little more than half the voters who prefer Ford believe the war in Iraq was a mistake, the poll shows. Among those supporting GOP candidates, roughly one in four characterized it as a mistake.
"None of the Republicans appears to enjoy an advantage here," Gant said.
Roughly half those supporting Republicans say the war on terrorism has made the country safer, while only one quarter of Ford's supporters say that. About one in five voters isn't sure whether the country is safer.
Corker's GOP opponents sure waited a long time to get serious about this campaign.
Bryant's ads just started a couple of weeks back. Haven't seen any for Hilleary shown in Memphis.
The primary is in two weeks, and early voting has already begun.
African Americans from Corrupt families do not win Senate seats in the South. Enough said. Remember the Liberal fawning in 2002 over Ron Kirk in Texas. He lost by 15 points.
I already sent money to Ed Bryant... hoping to find something else I can do aside from encouraging people to vote for him that I know. Corker would be a disaster for Republicans in TN.
I'm a little suprised the Club for Growth stayed on the sidelines in this one. I wonder why.
In my area (TriCities), the Country Club set is big behind Corker. Hard to gauge how the rank and file Republican is leaning; however, I tend to think Bryant will lead Hilleary. I think Corker may have peaked; I hope Bryant can edge Corker out. Bryant could ice a win merely by being more vocal on immigration: no amnesty, border fences, stiff employer penalties, deportation of any immigrant arrested, no taxpayer-paid benefits for illegals or their children, etc. However, he hasn't called me thus far and asked my advice. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
I still rather have him than JR.To me he is just a black slick Willy. I early voted for Bryant but if Corker is the man,I will support him.
I would likely vote for Corker if he wins the primary... but about that black Slick Willie? Corker is a white one. Corker really belongs on the other side of the aisle... way across the aisle.
you got me there!
I was there at the Capital during the Income Tax fight.
I hope I am wrong I really do but it looks to me like this thing is Ford's to lose. He is already a "media darling". Yesterday I heard a couple of Nashville Radio Talk Show guys talking about what a great guy he is. For is smooth. Meanwhile Corker runs ads with his momma endorsing him. Corker is a joke.
Ford will get strong support from Memphis and the greater Shelby County area. He will also do very well in Nashville which is very liberal. Davidson County is pretty much a lock for Democrats.
Corker will do well in Knoxville and he better do well in Chattanooga.
Another wildcard is the Illegal Immigration issue. Corker better come out strong on this one. Ford will have all the illegals voting for him [and yes they do vote in Tennessee because there is no documentation required for a divers license and a license is all that one needs to register].
Corker might win but it is going to be a whole lot closer than you think.
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