Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 5
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 19, 2006
The last recon pass through the center of Beryl this morning indicated the pressure had dropped another millibar down to 1004 mb. Flight-level winds at 850 mb were 52 kt in the eastern quadrant in convection...and that is the justification for increasing the intensity to 40 kt. Also...the correct pronunciation of Tropical Storm Beryl is berle... like the last name of Milton berle. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt...which is a blend of recon ...Satellite...and Doppler radar data. Radar and satellite imagery since the last recon flight at 12z suggest that the circulation center may be undergoing some re-organization closer to a band of strong convection that has formed in the northwestern quadrant. As a result... there may be some wobbling to the west until convection wraps around the east side... but the overall motion should be northerly and parallel to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in the short term. In the longer term... the forecast track hinges heavily on the intensity and structure of Beryl. The GFDL...GFS...and NOGAPS models move a very weak Beryl across Long Island and southern New England...whereas the UKMET...Canadian...and ECMWF keep the circulation center more offshore. However...all of the models keep the mid-level circulation well offshore. Since Beryl is expected to remain a vertically deep system... the latter solution of keeping the center offshore is preferred given the large shortwave trough currently moving across the Ohio Valley toward the northeastern United States that is expected to capture the cyclone and move it northeastward. The official forecast is close to the previous forecast track and is a little south of the GUNA model consensus. Banding features in the eastern semicircle have improved... as has the outflow pattern. Beryl is also moving over some of the warmest water along its past and future track. However... these favorable intensification conditions are expected to be short-lived as the vertical shear will begin to increase within 12 hours...and the cyclone will also be moving over sub-26c SSTs shortly thereafter. Some additional strengthening is possible before Beryl moves over much cooler water by 24h...which should induce slow weakening as Beryl transitions over to an extratropical low pressure system. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 19/1500z 35.6n 73.7w 40 kt 12hr VT 20/0000z 36.6n 73.7w 45 kt 24hr VT 20/1200z 37.9n 73.1w 50 kt 36hr VT 21/0000z 39.6n 71.5w 50 kt 48hr VT 21/1200z 41.3n 68.6w 45 kt...becoming extratropical 72hr VT 22/1200z 44.9n 61.5w 40 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 23/1200z 47.0n 52.0w 35 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 24/1200z...merged with extratropical cyclone $$ forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 19, 2006
...Beryl getting stronger as it moves northward and parallels the
East Coast of the United States...
...Tropical storm watch issued for southeastern Massachusetts...
at 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
southeastern Massachusetts from Plymouth southward and westward to
Woods Hole...including Cape Cod...Nantucket Island and Martha's
Vineyard.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 36.3 north...longitude 73.5 west or about 135
miles...220 km...northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and about
390 miles...630 km...south-southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts.
Beryl is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. This general
motion is forecast to continue tonight... with a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast expected on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to
24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160 km
...Mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...36.3 N...73.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart