Newt really needs to reign his instinct to be a media whore. He is a professional Historian for god sake. This is the stupidest nonsense for any Historian to be uttering. This sort of Chicken Little Bombast really, really, really undercuts the intellectually and political credibility of the various Conservatives who are saying it. When this all settles out in a month or so with no where near any of the doom and glooms hysteric predictions being any where near accurate, these Conservatives are going to take a massive PR hit.
Newt is a professional historian and I've read several of his books. His analytical skills, particularly about global geopolitical issues like this, are truly impressive. That doesn't mean he can't be wrong, particularly about a currently unfolding situation, and especially at the beginning of such a crisis. Anybody can misdiagnose a rapidly changing situation. But he's got more ability to diagnose this sort of situation than anyone I can think of.
Also, you have not presented any evidence that this will all "settle down in a month or so." Many folks were poo-pooing the threat of conflict before both World War 1 and World War 2 in very much the same type of language. That doesn't mean your wrong, but a bald assertion doesn't establish you as being right. Newt offered background and facts, or as much as he could in the short time allowed, and he's developed this position over several months of analysis of the entire global situation, not just the current flare up.
The odds are this is being overhyped, particularly by the media for their own business (ratings) reasons. But at the beginning of 9/11 this same type of thinking led many to report that a "light plane" had hit the towers. Newt used a phrase I first heard from Frank Borman after he headed up the Apollo 1 fire investigation, there is sometimes a "failure of imagination" in situations like this. "It just all seems so unlikely." Yep, but the unlikely does happen and then everyone screams "why didn't they know?"
This is NOT WW3. OK everyone? This is vermin control or international gang warfare. Nazi German could conquerer whole countries and threatened the very structure of the International Political system. Even combining all the various 3 world thugs involved here none of them come any where near Nazi Germany's weight militarily, politically or economically.
Korea and Iran each have military capabilities that make Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan combined look like Haiti today in comparison. North Korea has 5,800,000 military personnel, one million of them on active duty, mostly at the border with South Korea. They have 1,600 tanks and 6,500 aircraft, along with 21,000 artillery tubes. Iran has 18,000,000 military personnel, with 300,000 on active duty. They have 1,000 aircraft, 2,300 tanks and 4,500 artillery tubes. Those tanks and planes are so much more capable of wrecking destruction on a broad scale than the World War 2 equivalents that even a brief conflict can be devastating. No, they can't get to us here, but they can get at countries and facilities that are critical to our continued existence, at least as we live now. And they both almost certainly have access to nukes, something neither Nazi Germany nor Imperial Japan ever achieved.
And think about Iran's ability to destroy our economy by denying us access to oil. They can plant crude nuke "mines" in the straight's of Hormuz and shut off that oil completely. Korea is in a position to strangle our trade with the far east with similar devices. And before you say that that's crazy and would cut their own throats, France was Germany's largest trading partner before Germany invaded.
Perhaps more importantly the leadership of both Iran and Northa Korea are irrational. Ahmaddinejad believes that his mission is to start the war of Armageddon and he has the capability to do just that. Lil Kim just thinks he's god.
Then there is the Military disparity between the US and all the various rouge states and terrorist groups. If push comes to shove we can annihilate their whole society in a very brief span of time. They can sucker punch, kill some of our people but NOT threaten our national survival. This sort of "World War 3" talk comes across and hysteric and bombastic. Conservatives should stop it.
I never assume that irrational people will take a rational look at balance of forces and "do the right thing." And a nuke will ruin your whole day. More importantly a nuke detonated above the atmosphere will result in an EMP that will destroy virtually all electronic and most electrical systems anywhere in direct line of sight. That would ruin our whole society for quite some time to come.
How do you take down a lion if you're only a hyena? Get a lot of hyena's together and keep nipping at the lion's private parts. Eventually the lion will either run away or be destroyed. We can defeat any one of those hyena's lining up against us in short order. We can defeat two or three of them with some effort and at a serious cost. But if enough hyena's take enough shots at us continuously we will be damaged beyond our ability to recover within our lifetimes.
No one really knows what either one will do next. We face and have faced many other super powers with far more superior nuclear capacity but also with relative common sense. An enemy who is totally out of it, is far more dangerous. Like Newt said today Lil' Kim has starved so much of his population that over the last generation they have lost 3 inches in overall growth. And ahmaddinejad stil thinks some 8 year old kid who fell in a well in 800 Ad is going to come out and save the day. Crazy is as crazy does.
You can't be serious. Except for modern weaponry, the North Koreans and Iranians can't compare with the professionalism and effectiveness of the Nazis and Japanese. They had the ability to project power with superior logistics and military expertise.
North Korea has 5,800,000 military personnel, one million of them on active duty, mostly at the border with South Korea. They have 1,600 tanks and 6,500 aircraft, along with 21,000 artillery tubes. Iran has 18,000,000 military personnel, with 300,000 on active duty. They have 1,000 aircraft, 2,300 tanks and 4,500 artillery tubes. Those tanks and planes are so much more capable of wrecking destruction on a broad scale than the World War 2 equivalents that even a brief conflict can be devastating.
Numbers are meaningless as Saddam proved. The Iranians could only achieve a stalemate with Iraq after 8 years of fighting. The Iranians would fold like a cheap suit when faced with a real military force like the US or the Israelis for that matter. To compare these ragtag armies with the Nazis and Japanese is laughable.
FYI: The Nazis had 9.5 million under arms and the Japanese about 4 million. They killed over 40 million military personnel and civilians. They overan most of Europe, Asia, and North Africa.
And think about Iran's ability to destroy our economy by denying us access to oil. They can plant crude nuke "mines" in the straight's of Hormuz and shut off that oil completely. Korea is in a position to strangle our trade with the far east with similar devices. And before you say that that's crazy and would cut their own throats, France was Germany's largest trading partner before Germany invaded.
LOL. Do you really believe that we would allow that to happen? If the Iranians mined the strait of Hormuz, it would be an act of war, which would be met with overwhelming force. The same holds true with North Korea. Both of these "powers" lack the ability to project military force. Logisitics wins wars and that is something they both lack along with command in control to achieve dominance over the battlefield.
Perhaps more importantly the leadership of both Iran and Northa Korea are irrational. Ahmaddinejad believes that his mission is to start the war of Armageddon and he has the capability to do just that. Lil Kim just thinks he's god.
I don't believe that for a minute. Their statements and actions are calculated to elicit certain reactions and responses. They are not suicidal nor are they irrational.
I never assume that irrational people will take a rational look at balance of forces and "do the right thing." And a nuke will ruin your whole day. More importantly a nuke detonated above the atmosphere will result in an EMP that will destroy virtually all electronic and most electrical systems anywhere in direct line of sight. That would ruin our whole society for quite some time to come.
And if such weapon were to be used, Iran or NK would cease being nations. The primary threat that Iran and to a less extent NK pose to us is the state sponsorship of global terrorism and the possibility they will provide surrogates with WMD. They don't pose a real military threat to the US recognizing that any direct confrontation will result in their demise.