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US 'could be going bankrupt'
U.K. Telegraph ^ | 7-14-06 | Edmund Conway

Posted on 07/15/2006 9:54:37 AM PDT by Babu

click here to read article


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To: curiosity
The author of the article (Conway), makes a point that you seemed to have missed -- that fiscal insolvency has repercussions on the economy as a whole...

    If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

But he doesn't go far enough. Inflation deep enough to erode the government debt will also play havoc with the economy as a whole. What then happens to investor confidence in the private sector?

Yep, I'm sticking to my remark about economic ruin.

Your other point about raising taxes is well-taken. The author does indeed tip his hat to spending reduction as a remedy for debt. But he explicitly blames the tax cuts as a cause of the problem.

121 posted on 07/15/2006 3:51:12 PM PDT by Bonaparte
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To: TommyDale
Can you find a graph that shows overlays of tax rate cuts, and tax revenues? I don't claim to have a PhD from MIT, but I suspect there is a correlation.

Over the long run, no, there isn't. If you just extended that graph back to the 1990's, you see the opposite trend: tax revenue increasing after a tax increase.

122 posted on 07/15/2006 3:52:26 PM PDT by curiosity
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To: TommyDale
It doesn't take a genius to look at that chart and see that the tax cuts and increased revenue are correlated.

You're basing your correlation on ONE DATA POINT!

Extend the Chart to the 1990's and 1980's, and your correlation dissappears.

123 posted on 07/15/2006 3:54:13 PM PDT by curiosity
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To: mkjessup
Dennis Miller addressed this issue the best when he asked rhetorically, "they keep talking about the deficit, the deficit, who do we owe this deficit to anyway? F--k em! Don't pay 'em

I saw that today since I Tivo'd his HBO special last night. I laughed my ass off
124 posted on 07/15/2006 3:54:22 PM PDT by TheRedSoxWinThePennant
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To: defenderSD

Thank you for the lucid explanation of your point of view. Are you a member of the CFR? You seem to know what they do and don't do. Rockefeller alledgedly said, "Control the money and you control the world." Perhaps many members are not aware of the total power this organization wields. You may find the mentioned book in post 17 an interesting read. God bless.


125 posted on 07/15/2006 3:57:29 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( on the cutting edge.)
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To: dalereed

> You missed one. It started with Wilson.<

Thank you. You are right.


126 posted on 07/15/2006 3:59:04 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( on the cutting edge.)
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To: curiosity

Any way you cut it, tax revenues are up, and my taxes are down, and I like it that way. If they would just cut spending and stop the flow of illegal invasion, we could totally eliminate the deficit.


127 posted on 07/15/2006 4:00:25 PM PDT by TommyDale (Stop the Nifongery!)
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To: Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek

Excellent post and thanks!


128 posted on 07/15/2006 4:00:55 PM PDT by Bonaparte
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To: Babu
"The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, "

Stopped reading right there, as the author has NO credibility after writing such a comment. After the tax cuts, government revenue INCREASED! What an idiot this one is.

129 posted on 07/15/2006 4:02:57 PM PDT by KoRn
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To: Paperdoll

No, I'm not a member of the CFR. I'm out here in the wide open landscapes of Arizona and I diligently avoid Washington, D.C. and anyone who lives or works there...lol. (I'll make an exception to that for J.D. Hayworth, Trent Franks, and Jon Kyl if I get a chance to meet them.) We don't admire the federal government (or FDR) out here in the west, and like you I'm one of those working continuously to limit and control federal power.


130 posted on 07/15/2006 4:05:51 PM PDT by defenderSD (With my LCD's RGB at 57/57/57 & contrast = 80, Freeper opinion looks even sharper & more brilliant.)
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To: curiosity
"No, they'll simply refuse to lend to us..."

There's a global interdependence of economies now. If America sinks economically, through denial of credit or for any other reasons, many other economies go down the tubes as well. These foreign creditors are not going to cut off their nose despite their face. Money is usually the one area in which they are fairly realistic.

131 posted on 07/15/2006 4:07:38 PM PDT by Bonaparte
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To: defenderSD

>...(social security and medicare) will be reduced because they have to be significantly reduced...<

Perhaps if the gubmint were not allowed to use the funds collected for SS for a slush fund, but they were actually put in an interest bearing account, we wouldn't be facing these problems. As far as medicare goes, anything the gubmint ventures into becomes a nightmare. Before medicare went into effect, EVERYONE could afford medical care. Since then the costs have gone out of sight. Now that MedicareD has gone into effect, watch the price of prescriptions take off. Alot more going on in the world than meets the eye, IMHO.


132 posted on 07/15/2006 4:09:51 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( on the cutting edge.)
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To: TommyDale
Any way you cut it, tax revenues are up, and my taxes are down, and I like it that way. If they would just cut spending and stop the flow of illegal invasion, we could totally eliminate the deficit.

Hey, that's something we agree on. We also need to do something about medicare, because as another poster remarked, that's the real bomb.

BTW, I didn't find a fancy chart, but I found this only PDF document that has historical levels of Federal tax receipts:

http://a255.g.akamaitech.net/7/255/2422/23feb20050900/www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy06/pdf/hist.pdf

Go to page 27, and look at the Federal Funds column under receipts. You will note, that following the Regean tax cuts in 1981, tax revenue fell for 2 straight years. From 410 billion in 1981, to 409 in 1982, to 382 in 1983. It caught up in nominal terms by 1984, but adjusted for inflation, it was still lower.

You'll also note the opposite trend in "trust fund" receipts. They grow substantially after 1981, and it just so happens that this increase conincides with a sharp hike in the payroll tax around the same time.

Then note that after the 1986 tax increases, revenue jumps significantly, from 474 in 1986 to 538 in 1987.

Finally, look at 1993. Tax revenues were 641 billion. After Clinton's tax increase, they went up to 656 billion, and kept growing.

133 posted on 07/15/2006 4:10:32 PM PDT by curiosity
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To: mysterio
See post 127.
134 posted on 07/15/2006 4:15:13 PM PDT by curiosity
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To: curiosity

I heard you the first time. ;)


135 posted on 07/15/2006 4:16:19 PM PDT by mkjessup (The Shah doesn't look so bad now, eh? But nooo, Jimmah said the Ayatollah was a 'godly' man.)
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To: patton
Here is the great lie:

" One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. "

Anybody believe that if we doubled taxes today, congress would not spend it, today?

Both of these statements are fallacious.

If the law ordered a doubling of these taxes, there would an immediate total bankruptcy of virtually all personal and corporate entities.

The tax receipts would actually decline, therefore the congress would be unable to "finance" current spending much less additional spending.

No one can spend more than they make if they can't borrow.

136 posted on 07/15/2006 4:17:40 PM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
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To: mysterio

Woops. I mean see post 133.


137 posted on 07/15/2006 4:21:46 PM PDT by curiosity
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To: patton

Anybody believe that if we doubled taxes today, congress would not spend it, today?

Ummm, don't quote me but I'm quite sure it's already been spent.


138 posted on 07/15/2006 4:22:05 PM PDT by Joan Kerrey
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To: staytrue
"we should just lower the retirement age to 22 of course we can't pay, but who cares about reality."

Not a bad idea, how does this one sound? Don't raise taxes, just increase the Federal Minimum Wage to $350,000/year...

Then everybody would be in the maximum tax bracket and tax revenues would rise through the roof...

...this is right...isn't it?

139 posted on 07/15/2006 4:22:30 PM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
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To: curiosity
[curiosity to TommyDale]: "You're basing your correlation on ONE DATA POINT!"

As far as I can tell, TD posted a graph showing a continuous 5-year curve. That's not "one data point."

If you believe that boosting tax rates has historically resulted in more revenue to government than lowered tax rates can provide, by all means, post your own graphs and sources for this.

140 posted on 07/15/2006 4:24:25 PM PDT by Bonaparte
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