Would someone please help me understand what's going on in the Middle East. Hubby and I are having a discussion about it but there's alot I don't understand.
What is Israel trying to accomplish by targeting within Lebanon? Are they trying to remove Hezbollah from that country, or put pressure on the Lebanese people to remove Hezbollah? Both?
Does the Lebanese government want Hezbollah out of their country? Do the majority of the people want them out? If they are unable to kick them out on their own, are they asking for help from others (US, UN (yuck) the West, anyone else)?
Links to sites with brief explanations or posts on threads here would be fine, or just answers in a nutshell from someone who understands would be really good too. Thanks, and what a mess it is over there. God bless America is all I can say.
Peach gave an excellent link early in the thread this morning to blogs from the region. You really get the flavor of what the people in the middle of this are thinking, and it's not necessarily negative towards Israel.
The best current resource for updates from Lebanese and Israeli bloggers covering the conflict can be found @ Truth Laid Bear:
http://truthlaidbear.com/mideastcrisis.php
Also, great news feeds and blog links can be found here:
http://pajamasmedia.com/
Most Lebanese want Hezbullah out of the country. Many Lebanese also hate Israel. Right now, though most of the Lebanese don't want to be bombed.
Israel's goal now is to demolish Hezbullah, not Lebanon. It has changed from simply getting the soldiers out. It changed once Hezbullah started targeting major Israeli cities with rockets.
I hope this helps.
Israel is done asking for favors and will take care of matters itself. The Lebanese government and military best stay out of the way.
Lebanon is split, 10 to 20 perent see Hezb as a positive benefit, per election results.
Israel is indirectly (for now) pressuring Syria and Iran to rein in the H twins, Hezbollah and Hamas, with surprisingly open US support.
If the bad guys fold, Israel will occupy parts of Lebanon for a month or so, and Hezb will not be sitting down for future Lebanese Parliament sessions, sore bottoms from a significant spanking.
If the bad guys raise and call, then everything from Mashad, in eastern Iran, and possibly Herat, in western Afghanistan, over to say, 20 miles northeast of the Suez becomes a war zone, theater one in WWIII, with the possible (early on at least) exception of Saudi, the rump states, Jordan, and Turkey.
When Israel went into Lebanon in 1982, they created a defensive buffer zone that pushed back Hizbollah far enough that their rockets couldn't reach into Israel's territory effectively. When they left, under the auspices of a UN resolution, Lebanon's army was to take control of the area and secure it, thus securing Israel after the withdrawal. Lebanon's army failed to do so. Hizbollah went back in and took advantage of the power vacuum.
Hizbollah is both a political party and a militia. The two parts work in concert, using negotiation to stall while their militia gains control over areas. The political half builds schools, provides some social services functions and buys popular support from the Lebanese citizens in areas under their control.
The assassination of Lebanon's prime minister by Syrian operatives last year was an attempt to derail Lebanon's moves towards democratization. A rift has been forming between Hizbollah and the Lebanese government since that time.
It appears that Israel is trying to not only disarm Hizbollah and diminish its influence in Lebanon. If that succeeds, they may get their kidnapped soldiers back and enable Lebanon to keep the peace and establish democracy in their borders.
That's an analysis I heard from a former ambassador on the news the other day. In my opinion, Israel's just acting as our proxy to goad the Syrians and Iranians into a conflict so we can go in and kick their butts and force a broader regime change.