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"It is no longer business as usual in the ME. The governments are not going to start to be held accountable for the welfare of the peoples. And the Iranian mullahs realize their days are numbered. So they rigged things for this goon to become the president, but know must be wondering what the hell did they do. He could get them all killed."

Um, I thought the ME governments not being accountable for the welfare of the people WAS business as usual. But I would agree with you that we and our allies have changed the picture there, at least somewhat...

Am I correct that the prior Iranian regime seemed to be moderating a bit, but before that, the regime(s) were still pretty radical / counter to U.S. interests?

Another angle: Let's say I include "dirty bombs" as a type of nuke. 10 dirty bombs on the "right" day with the wind in the "right" direction. Pretty well wipes out Israel, I would guess? Not that the reaction / retaliation would be any different. So is all the current effort to "keep Iran from getting nukes" just for show? Maybe we expect 'em to violate any U.N. resolution, but figure sanctions might bring down the regime sooner? (Seems iffy -- sanctions did not bring down Saddam Hussein.)

I follow you on the nukes manufacturing, though. (Am an EE, and, unrelated, regularly pass by a large gaseous diffusion plant in our area - quite a facility.)

Interesting point about the Russians. I wonder how much spare refining capacity they have.

Also an interesting point about the ME countries that want to modernize. With all that oil wealth, a path more like China's (grow economically) would be far more successful than Iran's current path.

Pretty interesting weapons Hezbollah seems to have acquired.

Elections: Seems like a mixed bag in the ME. The dweeb I heard on CNN (or was it Fox) last night used Iran as an example of elections giving a bad result, which I think is silly: Those were not free elections. On the other hand, the Palis elected Hamas. I know that's largely because they were the only alternative to the (highly corrupt) PLO, but, still... And, how would a truly free election in, say, Egypt, come out if held today? (Rhetorical question.)

"Am I correct that the prior Iranian regime seemed to be moderating a bit, but before that, the regime(s) were still pretty radical / counter to U.S. interests?"
Answer: Yes. The mullahs elected to put this clown in because to many Iranians where tasting what basic freedoms where like, and it is obviously contrary to Sharia to allow humans to be free from the yoke they inherit.
As for your suggestion of them planting a lot of dirty bombs in various high density population centers in Israel. Obviously your concerns are totally realistic as well as justified.
And this could end up being a reality Israel will have to deal with. So much medical nuclear waste is easy to obtain anyone can rig a crude device up that could if properly designed disperse bad stuff into neighborhoods.
And I don't discount their wanting to obtain fully functional nuclear devices, just a matter of how soon and by what means.
As for the Russkies refinery capacity. It is unknown to me. But I assume they are building new plants based on their ever increasing ability to extract crude oil and gas from their lands. Perhaps they would not be up to replacing the European refineries capacity to export gasoline, fuel oil, jet fuel etc., to Iran. As you are well aware oil refineries and petrochemical plants take years to build and get on line and are subject to supply and demand etc..
Your comments on modernizing ME countries to be more in line with how China has bailed itself out are right on the money. Some of them are doing just that in essence. A place like Qatar realizes it can with all it's naturual gas money build many types of industrial complexes as well as services. The UAI's growing ship building/maintenance/container shipping business are just some examples as how they are putting their money to build their infrastructure.
Surely these guys are not the common knuckle draggers some would believe they are. Their sons continue to be educated in western colleges. They continue to modernize. So it is in Iran.
As you indicated. Sadly with with the high level of college grads the Iranians have in all areas, they can modernize and build thriving industistrial centers as well as financial and other service industries.
They are not backward in this respect. But this current regime is not keeping up with the very moderate gains they had made in the past. To many hardliner Islamos are now in key positions. And the presidential elections and consolidation of power seems to be driving them deeper into a mode where they will digress. Their large educated work force see all their personal freedoms under attack. And apparently the anti-government movements grow in size.
Sadly they would require a total bloody armed revolution to toss the mullahs and their croonies from power.
It does not appear this will not happen any time soon. As dissent continues to grow, the rulers shall clamp down so much the more.
But write about stuff you are most likely aware off, perhaps moreso then I.
I just feel that their president continues to sabre rattle as their economy gets worse. And with all the knowns about them breaking agreements in the past to disclose all nuclear work projects, they are caught in the lie. So like any good dictator, they arrange for the heat to be taken off them.
If the Persians feel threatened by the west, then the mullahs and this crack pot can appear to have their best interests at hand. Meanwhile they continue to force more Sharia on the people, obviously removing those few freedoms the people started to get a taste of prior to a few years back.
Where this is all going to lead. I have no idea that would reveal anyting most of us could not conjure up at this point.
One thing is for sure. Iran and Syria are not going to show any favor in the eyes of most of the world. Only a real bozo would actually believe they are benevolent well meaning nations at heart.
Hopefully the Russians and Chinese are not going to be able to control/counter what the other security council members believe must ultimately be done. Sanctions must be imposed that will make them (Iran), so helpless, that they will have to lose face and go along with the wishes of the majority on this nuclear issue. The Iranian people hopefully shall in the majority slowly see just how stupid their leaders have been acting and demand (national work strikes etc., to close the whole place down), their leaders go along with the wishes of the Europeans and Americans.
How do we get the russkies and chicoms to finally side with us for very strong sanctions? I don't know, short of a very dramatic change in trade relations, that would make them lose huge amounts of revenue.