Posted on 07/13/2006 2:32:28 PM PDT by RDTF
No, it's more akin to if you said that XY is never equal to X+Y, and I pointed out that 22=2+2 is a counterexample. Your original statement, if I may remind you, was:
Game theory mathematics works in certain simplified games where your optimal strategy is to assume your opponent is rational. If the other party isn't rational, your optimal strategy works even better than if the other party is rational.
The underlined portion is false. There are plenty of "certain simplified games" where an opponent's irrationality changes the optimal strategy entirely, and plenty of strategies which are optimal versus a rational opponent which become suboptimal versus an irrational opponent.
I'm well aware of the fact that actual human interactions and geopolitical diplomacy would require a much more complex model.
So do you think the Iranian has thrown the sterring wheel out the window?
In the sense that he's settled on the defect option, no. He still may back away from the brink. (If Iranians did in fact fire a missile at Israel, that answer would change.) But I posted the payoff matrix for the game Chicken just as an example. I don't think it applies to the current situation. Specifically, I don't believe that mutual defection (which in this case would be: Iran remains intransigent, the West goes to war) is the worst possible outcome.
I wish we could at least keep the off topic chatter to a minimum on the live threads. I get so frustrated with posts about someone's dog or their new car when I am trying to follow a hot issue.
Agree MUCHO!
I know I'm on pins and needles. So much so, it's hard to come out of my semi-lurker mode to post. It's much easier for me to post on a ZOT thread. LOL
Indeed, this IS the story. The magnitude and implications of this situation make it difficult for me to post. I've felt almost physically ill since yesterday. I'm sure there are a legion of people like myself just lurking and learning.
I've been praying hard for Israel, and for us. We can't back down this time.
MANY Crusades. But when people discuss the era known as The Crusades they are discussing seven. The FIRST Crusade was the most successful. Began in 1098 and lasted a year. The Crusaders captured Jerusalem and established several states in the Middle East.
The Second Crusade (1146-1148) was a disasterous attempt to recapture a Crusader state, Edessa, which had been taken by the Muslims in 1147. This group was crushed before it even reached the Holy Land. Failure.
The Third Crusade (1188-1192) was called by Pope Gregory the VIII and was dominated by some strong personalities: King Richard (the Lion Hearted) Emperor Frederick Barbossa and King Phillip of France. They did not manage to retake Jerusalem. Failure.
The Fourth Crusade (1201-1204) was diverted from the QUEST to help press a claim to the throne of the Byzantine Empire. They sacked the city of Constantinople (before it was Istanbul of the Muslim world) and in so doing they SHOCKED Christendom and earned the undying enemity of the Byzantines. Failure.
The Fifth Crusade (1218-1221) focused on Egypt but was doomed by disunity and infighting. Failure.
The Sixth Crusade (1228-1229) was essentially a continuation of the fifth. The Crusaders were offered a 10 year truce in which they would regain Jerusalem, Bethelem and Nazareth. They accepted but they left the muslims in place without restriction. This made it inevitable that the muslims would retake those cities which they did. Failure.
The Seventh Crusade (1248-1250) was the best equipped and best organized of all the Crusades. It was led by Pious French King Louis the IX. They tried to take Cairo but were defeated. Shortly thereafter Louis himself was captured...but eventually ransomed. Failure.
Class is concluded. There will be a test on Chapter twelve next Friday. OH. Wait. School doesn't start for three more weeks!!! Sheeeesh make me go back to work early! Shame on you!
I think the Hezbollah attack and hostage taking was a direct provocation, aimed at soliciting this type of response from Israel. They had already seen what had happened to Hamas, so what was the purpose of the raid?
So, radar told them it was an Iranian missle fired by the Iranian Guard? Amazing.
Agree,...but it is a conversational watering hole...
You wanted a link earlier. Here is one.
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06:02 Al Manar TV: Two killed, 17 wounded in IAF strikes on Beirut (Reuters)
05:03 Tehran denies Israeli claims Hezbollah will transfer held soldiers to Iran (AP)
04:49 IAF planes strike main highway to Beirut`s international airport (Reuters)
03:51 IAF planes strike southern suburb of Beirut where Hezbollah offices based (Reuters)
Did you see the guy in the background giving that one muslim lady weird looks? hehehe
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