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BREAKING on FOX [Israel believes] Missile that hit Haifa was fired by Iranian Guard

Posted on 07/13/2006 2:32:28 PM PDT by RDTF

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To: Thane_Banquo
Creating a pretend game whose rules prove your point doesn't imply that your point is valid. It is akin to saying that 2^2 = 2 + 2, so therefore X^Y = X+Y.

No, it's more akin to if you said that XY is never equal to X+Y, and I pointed out that 22=2+2 is a counterexample. Your original statement, if I may remind you, was:

Game theory mathematics works in certain simplified games where your optimal strategy is to assume your opponent is rational. If the other party isn't rational, your optimal strategy works even better than if the other party is rational.

The underlined portion is false. There are plenty of "certain simplified games" where an opponent's irrationality changes the optimal strategy entirely, and plenty of strategies which are optimal versus a rational opponent which become suboptimal versus an irrational opponent.

I'm well aware of the fact that actual human interactions and geopolitical diplomacy would require a much more complex model.

981 posted on 07/13/2006 7:36:19 PM PDT by Politicalities (http://www.politicalities.com)
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To: Mad_Tom_Rackham
Thank God Iran does not have Jets that can reach Israel per an earlier thread without refueling. This means they would have to truck the bomb to Syria and I am not sure little Assad wants that on his platter.
982 posted on 07/13/2006 7:37:09 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: Politicalities

So do you think the Iranian has thrown the sterring wheel out the window?


983 posted on 07/13/2006 7:39:50 PM PDT by DonnerT (Salafists are self gratifiers.)
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To: DonnerT
So do you think the Iranian has thrown the sterring wheel out the window?

In the sense that he's settled on the defect option, no. He still may back away from the brink. (If Iranians did in fact fire a missile at Israel, that answer would change.) But I posted the payoff matrix for the game Chicken just as an example. I don't think it applies to the current situation. Specifically, I don't believe that mutual defection (which in this case would be: Iran remains intransigent, the West goes to war) is the worst possible outcome.

984 posted on 07/13/2006 7:43:31 PM PDT by Politicalities (http://www.politicalities.com)
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Comment #985 Removed by Moderator

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I wish we could at least keep the off topic chatter to a minimum on the live threads. I get so frustrated with posts about someone's dog or their new car when I am trying to follow a hot issue.


986 posted on 07/13/2006 7:50:24 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
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To: Straight Vermonter

Agree MUCHO!


987 posted on 07/13/2006 7:51:51 PM PDT by Khurkris (Things look different from over here.)
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To: Lizarde
Slightly OT: amazing how few people at FR are posting about the Israel situation - to me this is the story

I know I'm on pins and needles. So much so, it's hard to come out of my semi-lurker mode to post. It's much easier for me to post on a ZOT thread. LOL

Indeed, this IS the story. The magnitude and implications of this situation make it difficult for me to post. I've felt almost physically ill since yesterday. I'm sure there are a legion of people like myself just lurking and learning.

I've been praying hard for Israel, and for us. We can't back down this time.

988 posted on 07/13/2006 7:55:50 PM PDT by mplsconservative
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To: pissant
Actually...you're right AND you're wrong. But you're more right than I am. It's been awhile since I taught World History (mostly these days I'm an American Government guy) but I went to a very good source: The Politically Incorrect Guide to Islam and the Crusades by Robert Spencer.

MANY Crusades. But when people discuss the era known as The Crusades they are discussing seven. The FIRST Crusade was the most successful. Began in 1098 and lasted a year. The Crusaders captured Jerusalem and established several states in the Middle East.

The Second Crusade (1146-1148) was a disasterous attempt to recapture a Crusader state, Edessa, which had been taken by the Muslims in 1147. This group was crushed before it even reached the Holy Land. Failure.

The Third Crusade (1188-1192) was called by Pope Gregory the VIII and was dominated by some strong personalities: King Richard (the Lion Hearted) Emperor Frederick Barbossa and King Phillip of France. They did not manage to retake Jerusalem. Failure.

The Fourth Crusade (1201-1204) was diverted from the QUEST to help press a claim to the throne of the Byzantine Empire. They sacked the city of Constantinople (before it was Istanbul of the Muslim world) and in so doing they SHOCKED Christendom and earned the undying enemity of the Byzantines. Failure.

The Fifth Crusade (1218-1221) focused on Egypt but was doomed by disunity and infighting. Failure.

The Sixth Crusade (1228-1229) was essentially a continuation of the fifth. The Crusaders were offered a 10 year truce in which they would regain Jerusalem, Bethelem and Nazareth. They accepted but they left the muslims in place without restriction. This made it inevitable that the muslims would retake those cities which they did. Failure.

The Seventh Crusade (1248-1250) was the best equipped and best organized of all the Crusades. It was led by Pious French King Louis the IX. They tried to take Cairo but were defeated. Shortly thereafter Louis himself was captured...but eventually ransomed. Failure.

Class is concluded. There will be a test on Chapter twelve next Friday. OH. Wait. School doesn't start for three more weeks!!! Sheeeesh make me go back to work early! Shame on you!

989 posted on 07/13/2006 8:01:29 PM PDT by ExSoldier (Democracy is 2 wolves and a lamb voting on dinner. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote.)
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To: DonnerT

I think the Hezbollah attack and hostage taking was a direct provocation, aimed at soliciting this type of response from Israel. They had already seen what had happened to Hamas, so what was the purpose of the raid?


990 posted on 07/13/2006 8:03:18 PM PDT by popdonnelly
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To: Ancesthntr

991 posted on 07/13/2006 8:05:21 PM PDT by knyteflyte3
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To: Ancesthntr

992 posted on 07/13/2006 8:06:42 PM PDT by knyteflyte3
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To: JasonC

So, radar told them it was an Iranian missle fired by the Iranian Guard? Amazing.


993 posted on 07/13/2006 8:07:46 PM PDT by Kenny Bunkport
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To: Straight Vermonter

Agree,...but it is a conversational watering hole...


994 posted on 07/13/2006 8:08:27 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
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To: mplsconservative
Did you see Hannity and Colmes tonight,....especially the exchange between Colmes and Newt Gingrich?


If Newt keeps talking like that I am gonna vote for him in 2008...The Guy
TOTALLY GETS IT!

Colmes does not!!!
995 posted on 07/13/2006 8:11:23 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
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To: Southack
What you won't see is that mistake made on a news web site.

"Mistake" on News Web Site

You wanted a link earlier. Here is one.

996 posted on 07/13/2006 8:12:33 PM PDT by Syncro
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.


997 posted on 07/13/2006 8:14:02 PM PDT by kimmie7 (Liberals embrace the sin......Christians embrace the sinner.)
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To: All
06:04 State Department authorizes family of embassy staff in Beirut to return to U.S. (Reuters)

06:02 Al Manar TV: Two killed, 17 wounded in IAF strikes on Beirut (Reuters)

05:03 Tehran denies Israeli claims Hezbollah will transfer held soldiers to Iran (AP)

04:49 IAF planes strike main highway to Beirut`s international airport (Reuters)

03:51 IAF planes strike southern suburb of Beirut where Hezbollah offices based (Reuters)

998 posted on 07/13/2006 8:14:11 PM PDT by Fitzcarraldo
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To: RDTF

Did you see the guy in the background giving that one muslim lady weird looks? hehehe


999 posted on 07/13/2006 8:15:03 PM PDT by Freedom Dignity n Honor (There are permanent moral truths.)
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To: All

1,000 posted on 07/13/2006 8:15:09 PM PDT by monkapotamus
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