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China is the wild card. They've gotten themselves in a poker game w/ W and it remains to be seen how far they are willing to take this lame hand.

Here's my read on China: South America and Africa are their future customers. A dollar of investment there goes far further than anywhere else in the world, not to mention it being a stable outlet for arms production. While the rest of the first world is playing games in the Middle East, they're working on the future.

Taiwan: So long as Taiwan doesn't take any steps to affect China's present status quo, all that's going to happen is a few military folks will be given beanies to go play in the straits every once in a while. Meanwhile, long term creation of a blue water navy and related surface ships to actually affect another piece of land is being worked on, but five years off before they could consider taking anything, ten years before they can imagine holding what they take.

Trade is their downfall at the moment. Any action they could take has to be weighed against an economic collapse. They're busy working on shipping out Christmas right now and getting ready for Valentine's Day. An economic boycott would cripple the country in weeks - and there are a lot of citizens who quite enjoy the benefits of trade. Cut it off, and China's vast armies will be protecting it's leaders (if the armies don't take out the leaders themselves.)

Were China in a military stance, their target wouldn't be Taiwan, nor any place most would expect, but instead North Korea. They have a near daily excuse to invade due to the constant rebel actions along that border. Take out North Korea, rebuild it with a quick eye on returning the land to a unified Korea, and money will keep flowing, the military gets their play time, and manufacturing continues at breakneck speeds.

As a threat, China's future, not present, for us and most of the world.

I think you nailed it, again. The ChiComs can make this whole thing stop right now, if they wanted to. I think they are testing W's resolve in the face of bad poll numbers and blistering media attacks. Clinton faced the same test in Somalia and failed and we got 9-11. W is a different breed. He consistently comes back over the top of his opponent. Luckily, he's been blessed with weak opponents. I hope his luck holds.