I would agree except I see the "base" as being hopelessly confused and split between three or four marginal candidates.
It is hard to see anyone but Guiliani stopping McCain and would bet on a Guiliani/Allen ticket as as likely as any other.
That's another losing ticket and I doubt that Rudy can win the primary. And it isn't that I think that Rudy wasn't a very good mayor; I do, but there are a lot of folks who will NEVER vote for him in the primary; let alone as the presidential candidate.