Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

KB Home: Negative Trends in Housing Could Continue into 2007
Nize Notes ^

Posted on 07/10/2006 7:43:50 AM PDT by toaster

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-35 next last

1 posted on 07/10/2006 7:43:53 AM PDT by toaster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: toaster

Most of the earnings reports for the big homebuilders will be in the last week of July. This warning seems to have been some kind of a bear trap -- the homebuilders dropped maybe a percent over the first 45 minutes but have since rallied hard for no reason whatsoever starting in the always-baffling 10:30 timeframe.


2 posted on 07/10/2006 7:53:38 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: toaster

"In truth, no one knows how bad the housing market will get. It has been in a multi-decade Federal Reserve inspired boom. Now that the Fed is raising interest rates, the key question will be how much damage have the rate hikes to date already done to the real estate market. Remember, it may take months before all the problems show up. And once they do, we don't believe the Fed will reverse and lower rates until a major obvious crisis hits the economy and/or financial markets. By that time, the real estate market could be on life support."

California is beginning to plummet. Kennedy-Wilson Real Estate Auctioneers in Santa Monica, Ca. is gearing up for a good run.


3 posted on 07/10/2006 7:53:51 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Taglines for sale or rent. Good "one liners", 50 cents.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jiggyboy

I am a homebuiler, and that rally is BS : )


4 posted on 07/10/2006 7:55:51 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Taglines for sale or rent. Good "one liners", 50 cents.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: toaster

Well, if my home is any indication, KB will continue to see declining sales and cancellations. I don't think it's representative of the market as a whole, they (KB) build CRAP!!!

I am the second owner of my home and the things that I've found and seen in mine and my neighbors' homes just amaze me. Such shoddy workmanship and shortcuts that I kick myself for not looking a bit closer at what I was buying. I'll fix it, learn from it and move on.

I will never look at a KB (KaufmanBroad) home again.

Cheers,
SZ


5 posted on 07/10/2006 7:56:32 AM PDT by SZonian (Fighting Caliphobia one detractor at a time)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stephenjohnbanker

builder that is : )


6 posted on 07/10/2006 7:59:31 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Taglines for sale or rent. Good "one liners", 50 cents.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: SZonian

They were quality builders years ago. Some of the big builders are using so many illegals now, that the quality is questionable at best, and lawsuits abound!


8 posted on 07/10/2006 8:03:33 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Taglines for sale or rent. Good "one liners", 50 cents.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: stephenjohnbanker

Yeah I figure today will be like Friday was -- high of the day in the first half hour then close at the lows. I'm seeing too many reports just this weekend of sales being down 20-40% from the same quarter of 2005.

We haven't even gotten to lower EPS's compared to the previous year yet, and I figure negative EPS's and a bankruptcy or takeover or two is necessary before it's all said and done.

So I curse at the ticker for a while but I ain't sweating it long-term. (I'm short one of the builders.)


9 posted on 07/10/2006 8:09:32 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: yoogli semantics

Simple things, like a range hood that actually vents outside, an exhaust fan in a bathroom, light switches you can reach without having to walk halfway into a room, etc. would be nice.

I truly want my next home to be built according to my now enlightened standards. Tract homes are not the way to go that's for sure.

Cheers,
SZ


10 posted on 07/10/2006 8:09:48 AM PDT by SZonian (Fighting Caliphobia one detractor at a time)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: stephenjohnbanker

The final responsibility goes to the builders and not the illegals.


11 posted on 07/10/2006 8:10:29 AM PDT by BlueAngel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: toaster
Bold font added
"Our outlook is tempered with caution, however, as conditions in many of the markets we serve across the United States have become more challenging in recent months. A number of our markets have been affected by a build-up of new and resale home inventories, higher interest rates and higher cancellation rates, particularly markets that have experienced rapid price appreciation or substantial investor activity, or both, in the past few years. As a result, our sales have been adversely affected. During the quarter ended May 31, 2006, for example, we generated 9,908 net orders, a decrease of 19% from the 12,290 net orders posted in the same quarter last year. Second quarter 2006 net orders from our French operations increased 16% on a year-over-year basis, while our U.S. net orders decreased 27% during the same period."

Source: KBHomes SEC form 10-Q


12 posted on 07/10/2006 8:12:18 AM PDT by stainlessbanner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stephenjohnbanker

I was talking to my neighbor who bought new and he was saying that they were building the homes so fast that the stucco barely had time to dry before they were painting it and moving on.

I was contacted by a lawyer about getting into a warranty lawsuit against KB, but I didn't feel that my problems were that great. Others, however, did get some $'s because of a lot of problems with theirs.

I still needed a house, so I probably would have bought regardless and now that the values are up, I'm glad I did. Now I just need to make it worth the so-called "market value" they claim it to be.

Cheers,
SZ


13 posted on 07/10/2006 8:14:50 AM PDT by SZonian (Fighting Caliphobia one detractor at a time)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: toaster

While the article seems to present the obvious, how good of an authority is the author? Just curious if you know this guy's background.


14 posted on 07/10/2006 8:16:34 AM PDT by Oystir
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stephenjohnbanker

Although there was a downward trend for a period in California, Zillow.com is now showing an upward tick in the housing there, at least in those that I have been monitoring.


15 posted on 07/10/2006 8:17:11 AM PDT by maxter (Swiftboating = exposing frauds. Let the swiftboating begin.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: toaster

16 posted on 07/10/2006 8:17:58 AM PDT by Vaquero ("An armed society is a polite society" Robert A. Heinlein(the moon is a harsh mistress))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #17 Removed by Moderator

To: SZonian

Wouldn't a reputable realtor have encouraged you to get a home inspection before purchase?


18 posted on 07/10/2006 8:23:46 AM PDT by Pan_Yans Wife ("Death is better, a milder fate than tyranny. "--Aeschylus)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Oystir

I have been following Nize's commentary for awhile. Though you have to read Vietnamese, it's clear that he nailed the current bull market in gold here: http://www.vnn.vn/kinhte/toancanh/2003/4/8835/

It basically says that gold, at the time around $325, was going much higher. He seems to generally take unquestioned facts like the KB report--no non-sourced material--and comment from there.


19 posted on 07/10/2006 8:24:48 AM PDT by toaster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Vaquero

Very good. Mr. Internet bubble cost me some money.


20 posted on 07/10/2006 8:28:55 AM PDT by Swanks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-35 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson