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That's like saying, without the Catholic vote for JFK, Nixon would have beaten JFK.

That's not what I'm saying at all.
Bush won because conservatives came out en masse to support him.
The Republican candidate will lose in 2008 without that same support.
Bush won the second go round because of the war.
If he had to run right now, he couldn't get elected dog-catcher.
If the GOP runs a moderate globalist again, the democrats win the WH.
That's what I was trying to get across. Sorry you didn't get it.

"Bush won because conservatives came out en masse to support him."

Bush won for plenty of reasons, one of them being the desire of millions of Americans, to sweep out the corrupt, sleazy Klinton/Gore people from office.
Conservatives were going to vote against Gore, no matter who the Republican candidate was.

"Bush won the second go round because of the war."

The war was one of the biggest campaign weapons used by the RATS against {President Bush.
He was constantly attacked on the war, and the Bush haters were fired up to vote against President Bush more because of the war than anything else.