I think the split so far is about 160,000 votes (0.05%). I'd say he has a right to a recount.
Your percentage is off. 200,000 vote margins is more like 0.5% gap. This is a close election, but not close at all in vote recount terms. It's impossible for a recount to put Obrador ahead unless the manufacture 200,000 votes or eliminate the same somewhere. Aint gonna happen.
If Orbador was a class act, he'd concede. He lost. Calderon won. Game over.
Also, Mexico laws determine the 'right' to a recount, and they do not allow for nationwide recount only ballot by ballot contest.