[conservative in nyc]

There's a lot of PRD-leaning population outside of Mexico City proper in Mexico State, a decent turnout in Obrabor's home state of Tabasco, and a decent-sized pro-PRD population in Oaxaca, and Chiapas. Veracruz, which was fairly evenly divided, is also in the south.

[SAJ]

Hmmm. Time for a refresher course, evidently.

Just btw, here's the current betting book on tradesports.com -- which, please note, had the Sunday results dead smack right well before even CME/IMM Mexican Peso on GLOBEX.

Contract BQty Bid Offer AQty Last Vol   Chge 

Trade MX06.PRES.LOPEZOBRADOR 
           1  12.0 15.0   2  14.0 5991  +7.5 

Trade MX06.PRES.MADRAZO 
          41   0.3  0.6   5   0.3 3476  +0.1 

Trade MX06.PRES.CALDERON 
          10  85.1 88.0  10  76.0 6033 -19.0 

ObraGore (wonderful sobriquet!) has been as high as 21 bid w/in the past 2 hours.

Thanks yet again for all the info!