I have created no hypothesis, and won't be able to until more info comes out. I always am suspicious of the first wave of information, because more often than not, it is wrong.
I do know that the MSM thought Haditha was a slam dunk for our men being guilty of a massacre. I'm willing to bet now that the Haditha Marines all walk free.
The first wave, which lasted 3 months, was that the Iraqis did it.