What some people here are missing is: (a) fixing TX-23 to meet Kennedy's ruling requires shifting about 100,000 voters, which is between a third and a half of a Texas congressional district; and (b) Kennedy explicitly rejected a "non-compact" Latino district (new TX-25) substituting for a "compact" Latino district (old TX-24).
In other words, this is hardly a trivial shift just to fix the TX-23, and there is an inevitable domino effect, and because Kennedy's ruling requires not just that Texas have six Latino districts, but that those districts be compact districts, there is very little leeway for manipulating the maps.
You are correct. I forget sometimes how much Laredo has grown in the past 10-15 years sometimes.
In the end, it comes down to one thing: Will the court impose a solution or will they allow the Leg some time to come together to make a new one that goes for this election? And when will the primaries and deadlines be, regardless?
One thing's for sure, the GOP back in Texas is probably working out a plan right now as we speak. And the Democrats are probably working on travel arrangements to New Mexico.
The simplest plan for the GOP is probably the one you laid out to go after Chet Edwards using rural west Texas and leave Bonilla to the dogs, hoping (and this is probably hope for the GOP) that the situation in 2002 where both Governor and House candidate were from Webb County raised the vote totals to astronomical proportions you won't normally see in midterm elections.
I could see AU2H0's plan possibly working legally, but definitely incurring a travel trip from Democrats.