Posted on 06/28/2006 5:41:05 AM PDT by Hydroshock
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The tell-tale sign of a stagnating real estate market? When homes for sale start lingering - and that's exactly what real estate brokers and other industry watchers say they're seeing now.
The National Association of Realtors does not maintain national time-on-market figures. But inventory - the number of homes for sale - spiked 37 percent for the 12 months through April 30, the most recent data available.
Homes are staying on the shelf longer.
Languishing in hot markets There are no official regional statistics for the time homes spend on the market. Here are estimates for local brokers. Market Time on market Up from Hanover, NH 125 days 65 days Napa, CA 60 days 10 days Phoenix, AZ 60 days 7 days Miami, FL 35 days 20 days
At the same time, the rate of sales has slowed, so that there is now 6 months worth of supply, up from 4.1 months a year earlier.
All that supply means homes are sitting around longer and that sellers are asking more than buyers are willing to pay -- an indication that prices may have to come down.
"Sellers are in denial, and there is a rising disconnect with the buyers," said Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser in New York. "Until sellers get the message, you'll see a drop in the number of transactions."
Philadelphia has seen only a modest run-up in time-on-market from about 23 days last year to a still low 33 today. But the city's inventory has grown from nearly 21,000 last year to more than 36,000 today, a more than 50-percent jump.
"The sales pace is identical, but inventory is way up," says Harry Caparo, who runs Coldwell Banker Preferred in Philadelphia. "Time-on-market is going to start to rise."
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
Do you see what I mean about reality being blurred, here? $250K is not "lower market." How many "lower-middle class" families can really afford to purchase a $250K house? Sure, they could using an 80/20 ARM/HELOC, but that is not reality...that is idiocy.
October will still be too early...give it 9-12 months to really see prices fall.
2007. Thats when your going to see inventories of avialable properties really starting to increase, and sellers starting to get frustrated as their properties aren't selling quick enough or not at all. All those arm and exotic loans readjusting upward is going increase selling and bank seizures.
we are in the plateau stage right now as prices start flatlining in many markets.
I'm not a sky is falling guy, but I'm a realist. I've been saying it for a while now that double digit % gains year after year in the real estate market in the US cannot and will not be sustained.
then some posters around here trash me saying I don't believe in capitalism. Whatever.......
It's all a complex cycle, but there are so many factors,
influx into neighborhoods, unavailability of new houses close
to city centers, traffic, gas prices, booming economies,
interest rates, earthquakes, hurricanes, buyer debt, buyer
fears of being locked out of housing "merry-go-round",
seller fears of having unsalable house, etc...
I've seen 3 major spikes so far, late 1970's, late 1980's,
late 1990's up to about 2005 so far..(this last one was
very prolonged relatively speaking)...expect a cooling down,
some deflation,...long waits for sales, and then
relative "stability" at prices that are now, considering
the prices in the 70's and 80's, outrageous.
It's all a complex cycle, but there are so many factors,
influx into neighborhoods, unavailability of new houses close
to city centers, traffic, gas prices, booming economies,
interest rates, earthquakes, hurricanes, buyer debt, buyer
fears of being locked out of housing "merry-go-round",
seller fears of having unsalable house, etc...
I've seen 3 major spikes so far, late 1970's, late 1980's,
late 1990's up to about 2005 so far..(this last one was
very prolonged relatively speaking)...expect a cooling down,
some deflation,...long waits for sales, and then
relative "stability" at prices that are now, considering
the prices in the 70's and 80's, outrageous.
It's all a complex cycle, but there are so many factors,
influx into neighborhoods, unavailability of new houses close
to city centers, traffic, gas prices, booming economies,
interest rates, earthquakes, hurricanes, buyer debt, buyer
fears of being locked out of housing "merry-go-round",
seller fears of having unsalable house, etc...
I've seen 3 major spikes so far, late 1970's, late 1980's,
late 1990's up to about 2005 so far..(this last one was
very prolonged relatively speaking)...expect a cooling down,
some deflation,...long waits for sales, and then
relative "stability" at prices that are now, considering
the prices in the 70's and 80's, outrageous.
Q.Did you have to post it 3 times???
A.Well my modem wasn't responding, so I clicked "post"
three times...
Q. You ninnie!
A. Sorry about that.
I heard you the first time. I do admire your passion, however.
250K has become lower market here in Seattle. This also means if you need to buy at that level, you going to either live in a hovel in ghetto areas or live more than an hour drive outside the city. Median home price is now something like 440,000 here.
< turbo post /off >
The Fed had to do something to get the economy to move again after they kept rates too high in order to crash the stock market. W's demand side economics weren't doing the job, plus his desire for a weak dollar also meant lower rates.
Oh? How so? (genuine curiosity)
Immigrants need a place to live, too. This creates a damand for housing.
Sure, it may be demand mostly at the low-end of the scale, but that pressure is enough to lift most prices generally.
I remember when I was selling my two-bedroom bungalow in Florida, I had all sorts of recent immigrants showing up with plenty of cash.
That pushed the price up :).
Yeah, home sellers tend to be stubborn. It's going to take another year before the reality sets-in.
Of course, trouble in October, like a financial melt-down might speed things up, but buyers should wait anyway while sellers are still rushing for the exits.
Buy 'em at today's fire sale prices while you can.
BUMP
The median family income for my county is $100,417. So yes, $250,000 around here is in the lower price range for a home. You want crazy ?? Go to the new developments right up the mountain from me and new home prices start at about $1,250,000. There are no homes or lots available in those developments anymore, they have all been sold.
I could not disagree more.
Nice charts
That sounds like Rainier Beach. What is Queen Anne
R.E. going for these days?
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