Posted on 06/28/2006 5:41:05 AM PDT by Hydroshock
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The tell-tale sign of a stagnating real estate market? When homes for sale start lingering - and that's exactly what real estate brokers and other industry watchers say they're seeing now.
The National Association of Realtors does not maintain national time-on-market figures. But inventory - the number of homes for sale - spiked 37 percent for the 12 months through April 30, the most recent data available.
Homes are staying on the shelf longer.
Languishing in hot markets There are no official regional statistics for the time homes spend on the market. Here are estimates for local brokers. Market Time on market Up from Hanover, NH 125 days 65 days Napa, CA 60 days 10 days Phoenix, AZ 60 days 7 days Miami, FL 35 days 20 days
At the same time, the rate of sales has slowed, so that there is now 6 months worth of supply, up from 4.1 months a year earlier.
All that supply means homes are sitting around longer and that sellers are asking more than buyers are willing to pay -- an indication that prices may have to come down.
"Sellers are in denial, and there is a rising disconnect with the buyers," said Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser in New York. "Until sellers get the message, you'll see a drop in the number of transactions."
Philadelphia has seen only a modest run-up in time-on-market from about 23 days last year to a still low 33 today. But the city's inventory has grown from nearly 21,000 last year to more than 36,000 today, a more than 50-percent jump.
"The sales pace is identical, but inventory is way up," says Harry Caparo, who runs Coldwell Banker Preferred in Philadelphia. "Time-on-market is going to start to rise."
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
True, but with the pprice run ups we have had in many markets in the past few years and people buying them with interest only loans and teaser rate arms amny people do not have the room to drop much unless they can bring money to the closing.
I agree. People are very short sighted. They think what is happening at any given time is the way it always is, and should be.
Used to be no one thought much of a 3-4 month selling time. Or even longer. A crash is possible I suppose, but at the moment it seems to me we are just returning to a more "normal" market.
No, this is not the media's fault...this is the Fed's fault...they allowed the market to be awash in cheap money, which allowed housing to unrealistically skyrocket....and now it is time to pay the piper.
stagnant and slowing are 2 different things. "
Note: you are being ignored. This is from CNN.com [Clinton News Network] and like CNBC--
THEY HATE AMERICA!!
Let the prices drop.
You're right, but sometimes it's just a bit of greed on the part of the seller. I had a deal fall through yesterday. The house is nice, but the comps aren't there to justify the price and the sellers won't go lower to be more in line with the appraisals. Unfortunately for people in that situation, no bank will loan more for a home than an appraisal says it's worth. Plus, in MOST markets, smart buyers who can come up with a good down payment, won't pay more than the house is worth either.
Another part is a drop in immigration rate.
I expect you will be seeing more of this in the next years time.
Oh? How so? (genuine curiosity)
60 days? Oh the horror.
We are putting our home on Cape Cod on the market this month. I have figured it will take up to a year to sell it. We have priced it fairly and will get what we ask. Since I'm in no hurry at all it is no problem to wait for the right buyer.
"People all want out now b/c they realize that their home values are inflated beyond reality,"
Homes are not inflated beyond reality if buyers are willing to pay the price. Here in central New Jersey, homes are still selling but there are just so many more for sale than there were a year ago.
Last year, you could find 3 or 4 homes for sale in a decent area of my township. Now you can find 10. The well kept lower/middle market ($250,000 - $500,000) priced homes still sell as do cheap fixer uppers. It is the poorly maintained but overpriced homes that are dead in the water as are many of the bigger homes in the $600,000+ range. Homes and land west of here in the rural areas have gone down because the price of commuting (gas) has made it more expensive to live in many of those areas.
On my street alone, there have been 10 houses for sale in the last 3 months. All have sold except for two which were small and priced way too high. My neighbors (she was a real estate agent) sold last year for $395,000 and a month ago an almost identical house, four doors down sold for $460,000 and one behind us (slightly larger) sold a couple months ago for over $500,000.
We've been looking for a new home and anything that is decent and reasonably priced (not cheap, just fair), still sells quickly around here.
Buyers in many markets are becoming increasingly reluctant to pay the prices, and prices are dropping.
Anyone looking to buy a nice 1200 sq ft 2 BR/2 BA condo in San Diego county for $285,000? Please?!? (Technically, my relocation company only requires that a qualified offer be made -- then they buy the property from me. Anyone want to make a qualified offer?!?)
;-)
Sorry to hear it, good luck.
Wait until the grace period for interest-only gimmick loans begin to expire in the near future, sending monthly payments and foreclosures rocketing, and watch buyers continue to refuse to pay the highly inflated prices made possible only by extremely risky gimmick loans.
Buyers are wising up to the fact that buying a $200,000 house for $400,000 because a bank is willing to lend $400,000 on very risky terms is not a smart move.
No, this is not the media's fault...this is the Fed's fault...they allowed the market to be awash in cheap money, which allowed housing to unrealistically skyrocket....and now it is time to pay the piper.
I agree. this is a big part of it. Say since in the begining of 1990's, if you put the on a chart the worth of the dollar vs the price of real estate, gold, and oil, you would see the big picture.
I'm going into the market in October! Yay!
Staaaaagnate! Staaaaaagnate!
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