Israel Needs A Preemptive Nuclear Strike Against Iran

The Israel News Agency ^ | June 24, 2006 | Jonathan Ariel

[IsraelBeach]

Israel Needs A Preemptive Nuclear Strike Against Iran

By Jonathan Ariel
Israel News Agency

Jerusalem ----- June 24...... One of the best ways to ensure the world doesn’t get wobbly over Iran, is to make it understand that although Israel prefers to regard the rogue Islamic regime as an international problem, we will, if necessary, do whatever it takes to ensure our survival, including a preemptive nuclear strike.

In 1936, when Hitler marched into the Rhineland the allies appeased him, even though they could have been in Berlin in two weeks. In 1938 they once again let him off the hook, even though the allies could have been in Berlin within two months. Shortly after the appeasement of Munich, Russia signed a non-aggression treaty with Hitler, setting the stage for what it hoped would be his defeat of the West, which would pave the way for Russian domination of Eurasia, from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

Now we have Iran, a country led by Ahmadinejad, an equally deranged and evil maniac. He is driven by an ideology combining elements of Nazism and Mahdism, with a tad of Maoism as well, a lethal cocktail of three of the most evil ideologies of human political history.

By most current intelligence estimates, by 2008, exactly 70 years after Chamberlain announced on his return from Munich he had achieved “peace in our time”, the Iranian Islamo-Nazi regime will have succeeded in developing an atomic bomb. Although it seems that the international community has belatedly begun to awaken to the danger, it is still far from certain that this will actually lead to concrete and concerted steps to ensure this doesn’t happen.

Moreover, even if the West does get its act together, three is no guarantee that Russia will not revert to course, enacting a repeat performance of the Molotov-Ribbentrob pact. Putin seriously mulling double crossing the West.

This week new and highly disturbing evidence came to light that this is exactly what Russia is doing. According to a western intelligence report published earlier this week, satellite images showed large volumes of heavy Russian weaponry heading towards Iran. The weapons belonged to Russian military units evacuating Georgia, as part of the Russian-Georgian agreement signed in March, which calls for all Russian troops to be withdrawn from Georgian soil.

The Russians were evacuating their two big Soviet-era military bases in Georgia on the shores of the Black Sea – the 12th base in Batumi and the 62nd at Akhalkalaki to the north, 19 miles from the Turkish border. The mages revealed the retreating Russian units moving along not one but two routes. The first showed small groups of Russian officers and soldiers heading out of Georgia carrying only their personal kits, the second was jammed with convoys of trucks loaded with weapons and logistical systems, radar and ammo.

Freight trains were also pressed into service. This route wound out of Georgia and headed into Armenia where the vehicles halted at the Russian base near Gyumri. A Russian military spokesman explained this relocation by stating that “the property of the 62nd (Akhalkalaki), Georgia, would be reassigned to replenish Russia’s 102nd base in Gyumri, Armenia.” He added: “The transfer of this property to any other party is not envisioned.”

However Armenia was not the “the property’s” last stop. The close watch on the Russian supplies convoys continued and, lo and behold, a third route surfaced, this one heading out of the 102nd base in Armenia and into Iran.

Western military sources have traced the route these weapons took. From Gyumri, the trucks and trains rolled on to the Armenian capital of Yerevan. There, they were offloaded onto Armenian and Iranian trucks and trains, which turned south to the Iranian border. The freight crossed the border and halted at the Iranian town of Sadarak. Its next stop was the Iranian-Azeri town of Naxcivan and then on to Tabriz. Subsequent shipments by truck and rail followed the same route, They included APCs, heavy artillery, Grad rockets, BM-21mm missiles and anti-aircraft systems.

So far this year, Iran has purchased over $7 billion for arms from Russia, including anti-air, nuclear-capable Tor-M1 cruise missiles, considered by experts the most advanced of its kind in the world. Iran has purchased these missiles to secure the Bushehr atomic reactor and other nuclear sites. These sources say that Teheran is using the Georgian weapons deal as bait, to get Moscow to part with weapons and technologies it has so far refrained from passing over to the ayatollahs, specifically technology transfers enabling Iran to begin domestic production of the sophisticated Russian X-5518 nuclear cruise missiles, known also as Kh-55 or AS-15s.

Tehran already has a dozen of these missiles, which have a 3,000km range and are capable of carrying a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead. They were purchased on the black market of Ukraine in 2005. Teheran has reportedly promised to significantly increase its purchase of conventional weapons from Russia, if it agrees to the missile technology transfer.

Despite the uncertainty as to whether Russia (and possibly China as well) would cooperate with the West regarding Iran, the conventional wisdom has remained unchanged, namely that Iran is an international problem, being dealt with accordingly by the international community, and that Israel should therefore take a back seat.

Nothing could be further from the truth. The world needs to understand very clearly that Israel cannot and will not allow a Holocaust –denying regime that openly calls for its destruction to wield a nuclear bomb. Israel needs to make it very clear that the consequence of it having to face a nuclear Iran by itself will be a preemptive strike against Iran.

The more the international community gets the message that the consequences of appeasement will be worse than those of action, the better the chances of action. The growing evidence of Russian perfidy makes it even more important that there be no room for misunderstandings in this regard. The best way to get that message across is to make it very clear that if Israel is faced between an Iran nuclear bomb, or having to launch a preemptive nuclear strike to prevent that eventuality, it will opt for the latter.

The world must be told loud and clear by Israel that the only way to avoid the first nuclear strike by a nation since Nagasaki is to take whatever actions are required to ensure Iran doesn’t get the bomb, and to prevent an Iranian conventional weapons build up to the point where a preemptive nuclear strike becomes the only option for dealing with the rogue ayatollah regime.

Jonathan Ariel, was an advisor to the South African government and is a former editor-in-chief of the Israel on-line Maariv International. He has filled numerous positions with well known Israel and international media organizations such as Maariv, Makor Rishon, Jerusalem Post, Ha'aretz, The International Herald Tribune, Israel Radio, SABC and the Independent Foreign Service. These include Managing-Editor of Makor Rishon and Editor-in-Chief of Maariv International. He has been interviewed and quoted by leading media organizations such as the LA Times, The Economist, The Guardian, The New York Sun, Times of India, The Australian, Sunday Times and the BBC. His articles have been translated into over a dozen major languages, including German, Danish, Dutch, Italian, Serbo-Croatian, Spanish, French, Arabic, Japanese, Korean and Chinese. He has degrees in Political Science and Journalism. He speaks English and Hebrew at mother tongue level, French, Dutch (Afrikaans) fluently.

[mysterio]

It's not 1967. If you think we will let Israel fight a war with the entire Middle East without joining the fight, then you are mistaken.

[garbageseeker]

Why do you need three bunker busters carried by plane and flown by a pilot to destroy a underground target with no guarantee your bomb has detonated? It is easier to fire one nuclear tipped missile to completely destroy underground target in which you are guaranteed success.

[musicman]

I just Googled "1 kiloton nuclear blast data".

This link came up:

http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309096731/html/30.html

It's an Adobe style page, but close to the top, it has a table of contents that looked interesting, and the title that shows up on the link is:

"Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons Against Hard and Deeply Buried Targets"

...... kinda what this thread started to be about.

[GSlob]

"President Bush, please take a new peek into Putin soul...you might have missed something."
One cannot take a peek into something which is not there, and has never been. ND - not doable.

[garbageseeker]

They want to do it themselves, they are waiting for negotiations to fail. They will choose the time to launch their attack. The Israeli armed forces has always performed at their best by themselves. They proved it in 1948,1967 and 1973 and they won against all the odds.

[Mr. Jeeves]

A space-based laser missile defense - good enough to blow up any delivery system of theirs before it clears the launch pad. It's probably too many years away, though.

[Sic Luceat Lux]

If you think we will let Israel fight a war with the entire Middle East without joining the fight, then you are mistaken.

Prove this - - right here, right now, thanks.

[Sic Luceat Lux]

I agree with all your points in your #145.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Last I heard, Israel was not terribly friendly to the gospel.

Because they have the effrontery not to believe in it? ;)

[familyop]

Russia is doing the same, old thing again.


From PalestineFacts.org:

What led to the Six Day War in 1967?

Military Provocation By Arab Countries and Soviet Disinformation

Excerpt:

At the same time, and unknown to the Israelis, the Soviet Union mounted a disinformation campaign pushing Egypt to join Syria against Israel. At that time, the Soviets were providing military and economic aid to both Syria and Egypt. On May 13, 1967 a Soviet parliamentary delegation visited Cairo and informed the Egyptian leaders that Israel had concentrated eleven to thirteen brigades along the Syrian border in preparation for an assault within a few days, with the intention of overthrowing the revolutionary Syrian Government. This was a complete fabrication designed by the Soviets to destabilize the Middle East. Similar false information may have been given to Egypt by the Soviets as early as May 2.

[familyop]

The Russian military leadership already said that it would not try to physically intervene, if military strikes are carried out against Iran.

[garbageseeker]

Right. Because the Israelis has a missile with Moscow's name on it.

[GSlob]

Not bad a list, but not enough. One needs to hit the identity centers, like Qom, as well. Victory is defined as crushing the enemy's will to fight, not his capacity to do so - where is a will, there is a way. If the will is rooted in the identity, then the whole identity needs to be crushed, and this is much more bloody proposition than nuking Natanz facility.

[GSlob]

'China and Russia would immediately align with Iran, as would the rest of the Middle East."
How could one align with a radioactive waste, if that's all that's left there?

[garbageseeker]

Everything is a target in my book.

[Polybius]

Would you care to point out which two or three or four targets can be eliminated by Israeli nukes in order to achieve "checkmate"?..........Polybius

Abadan N30°21' E48°17' Abu Musa Island N25°52' E55°01' Aliabad N34°47' ?E51°05' Arak N34°05' E49°41' Bandar Abbas N27°11' E56°16' Bonab N38°25' E45°54' Bushehr 28°51'N 50°53'E Chalus N36°40' E51°25' Damghan N36°10' E54°20' Darkhovin N30°45' E48°24' Dorud ?N36°00' ?E51°29' Esfahan N32°40' E51°40' Esteghlal ---- ---- Fasa N28°56' E53°38' Gamsar ?N35°40' ?E51°45' Gostaresh N35°28' E48°53' Hama N??°??' E??°??' Islaker N??°??' E??°??' Karaj N35°50' E51°00' Khorramabad N33°28' E48°21' Kukh-e-Barjamali N35°39' E51°39' Lavizan N35°46' E51°29' Maghdad N??°??' E??°??' Tabriz N38°05' E46°15' Tehran N35°40' E51°25' .........For Starters...........garbageseeker

That is exactly my point.

Two or three or four Israeli nuclear strikes WILL NOT achieve an Iranian "checkmate".

Such an Iranian "checkmate" would require Israel to unleash a nuclear Armageddon. ......For starters, as you said.

(At which point, it should not surprise anybody if a Russian nuclear strike on Israel results in the last four mushroom clouds of that Sampson Option scenario.)

Thus, my analogy of using a chainsaw for a heart transplant: Extremely loud and dramatic (not to mention deadly) but not the appropriate tool for the job.

The feasible alternative is a U.S. conventional air war that has, time and again since the Gulf War, proven capable of hitting enemy architectual targets, at will, for week after week, as long as it takes, with pin point accuracy, with minimal U.S. casualties while the enemy watches helplessly on CNN.

[SwordofTruth]

To let these people get their hands on a nuke is the worst mistake Israel could make.

If Iran already has a nuclear weapon, which I think they do, then Israel nuking Iran would be the worst mistake they could ever make.

[TheClintons-STILLAnti-American]

"This is not rational thought."

Neither is Islam.

Unless there can be devised a way to allow freedom of ideas and expression in Islamic communities-- which would result in wholesale abandonment of Muhammad's cult and is precisely the reason it is outlawed under Sharia law-- there is no way to end the Islamic threat to the rest of the world short of some sort of cataclysmic event.

Got any ideas on how to make the mullahs "open-minded", short of putting holes in their heads?

[garbageseeker]

Your vastly under estimating the Israeli nuclear arsenal. They can clean out Iran.

[garbageseeker]

They can take out the entire Mideast if they wanted to.