The Federal controlling interest rate has climbed from 1% to over 5%. I just paid off a home equity line of credit that looked pretty reasonable when it was at 4% but ugly at 8. I think that 1% was too low and that 5% is too high. The Feds need to stop acting like a healthy economy can turn on a dime. Of course, the low interest rates are loved by those whose metric is "home ownership rates" without any attention to indebtedness.
The dot-com bust was in part caused by easy money that enabled places like Mexico to install cell phone systems on credit based on the premise that they would eventually pay off.
RSteyn said: "the price of oil is unstable, ......"
It's unstable and high. I am absolutely floored by the fact that consumption in the US has only now stopped growing. This may bode well for the future, since there can be expected little growth in consumption as prices fall. We just might find ourselves swimming in oil soon. I would prefer that to any kind of supply interruption.
RSteyn said: "we appear to be on the threshhold of admitting millions of unassimilatable people who cost us billions while running down the calibre of schools, medical care, etc., ..."
This is a result of unbridled socialism here and corruption south of the border. If an American sneaks into a foreign country, I doubt that there is an expectation that he is entitled to free health care or education. Nor would it be tolerated for him to be working free of taxes.
High taxes make a powerful incentive for employers to hire these people and pay them off the books. The minimum wage law also provides an incentive to hire illegals at lower pay.
RSteyn said: "the housing market is a mirage......"
Housing has seen quite a run, but a lot of it, I think, is the result of inflationary expectations. The government can't be expected to maintain the value of the dollar, so it makes sense to invest in an asset that can appreciate. So far, very few people have lost money in real estate.
RSteyn said: "and one well-placed terrorist act could cripple the economy. ..."
September 11th was a pretty good shot. They killed 3000 and caused maybe $50 billion in direct and indirect damage. ( I think that is the number. )
But I sure wouldn't want to be a terrorist these days. There aren't many places to hide. Now that people understand, they behave differently. Flight 93 demonstrated that Americans were prepared to fight in order to cut our losses dramatically.
There may be yet another dramatic event in the US. But I doubt very much that it will create anything but greater anger and stiffen our resolve. The Demoncrats have seriously misread the American people.
All of the above issues have been affecting the US for some time. I would not characterize any of them as having caused dramatic dislocations. September 11th comes closest, but even then there were warning signs ignored by prior administrations.
The unemployment rate is at all time lows. The standard of living has not changed to any great degree. The trend is unescapable, though. These are far from "the worst of times" in my book. Surviving VietNam was a pretty fair challenge. There is no draft now and its unlikely that there will be one. National divisiveness is high but not at an all time high, I think.
Kalifornia has problems, though, It looks like they are proposing a record 130 billion dollar budget. If the economy turns down next year, there is no way they could spend that much again. I am much more concerned about the consequences of socialism here in the US than competition with the rest of the world.
>September 11th was a pretty good shot. They killed 3000 and caused maybe $50 billion in direct and indirect damage. ( I think that is the number. ) <
You just aren't very imaginative. Give me 30 guys willing to blow themselves up and a budget of no more than $250,000, and I know how to bring this country to a crawl and put a lot of cities in the dark all winter. And I am not a terrorist--I'm not actively thinking about these things all the time, so I'm sure the bad guys have already thought of these things. It could all be done in the space of 30 minutes, and every armed warplane capable of taking to the skies could not stop it.
>So far, very few people have lost money in real estate.<
Wait'll the boomers try to cash in their McMansions, and the for sale signs spread across the land. Supply and demand. Unless, of course, the McMansions are sliced up into multiple apartments for all the illegals to burrow into.
>The unemployment rate is at all time lows. The standard of living has not changed to any great degree. <
Job growth has been in low-paying jobs. A lot of people are employed in jobs well below their capabilities. Do you consider a highly skilled person working as a waitress or delivering pizzas to be fully employed? What about the people who used to have health care through their employers but who is now stocking shelves and working for dirt money and no health insurance? There is a lot going on that isn't as happy as the numbers might indicate.
>There is no draft now and its unlikely that there will be one. <
Never say never. I cannot think of a time when so many different threats loomed over this country.