Retirees Will Face Dire Straits [Baby Boomers to force following generations to suffer]

RSteyn said: "Part of the solution is something nobody wants to think about: tariffs. "

The company I retired from makes half of its sales internationally. What do you think will happen to them if tariffs are imposed on their customer's products?

Your idea is just the sort of government interference that will create an economic mess.

Which industries will you protect and by how much and for how long?

There have been a few cases of predatory practices by foreign companies and action was probably justified. But in general it will not be productive to use the power of government to decide that somebody inside our borders should be able to conduct a business but that people outside should not.

I would be curious to hear what level of tariffs you think would be needed and what the results would be. How much increase in US government revenue, taking into account the decline in US businesses that deal overseas. What final level of international trade will result. Will trade be off by 50%. What third world countries will be affected and how? Will their people then starve?

I wonder what the tariffs on US goods being imported into the Soviet Union looked like just prior to their collapse? Aren't they an example of trying to lock out foreign goods in order to assure full employment? Wasn't their government intimately involved in exactly how much every product sold for?

After the fall of the Soviet Union, I remember a key incident, I believe in the Ukraine. Farmers there were being forced to sell their products locally at artificially low prices. The farmers refused to sell.

Fortunately, the authorities opted for freedom over government control. The locals had to pay the going price. Consequently, the reward for being a farmer increased, and there was incresed incentive to grow even more. Government action should be a last resort.

Yes, what you have just described is the Social Security Nation. Not only will they keep borrowing from SS, they could conceivable pass laws to start dipping into your IRA's and 401K's by ending their tax exemptions.

The whole notion of SS is deplorable and wrong.

By nearly every expert's forecast, half to three-fourths of the next few generations of retirees will live on the edge financially or in desolate poverty.

Most of whom had the opportunity to contribute to some sort of IRA or 401k program at their employment. That's the truly sad fact. These retirees have bought into the biggest lie the feds ever told. That SS will keep them safe in retirement. They were fed this crap, most of them, from the day they were born as SS had existed for over 20 years before some of them were born. The fact that this program has been allowed to persist for this long is the biggest crises of all. If SS were scrapped decades ago, it would have forced citizens to do what they should have done in the first place, take responsibility for themselves and invest in their futures. Our economy would be three times stronger now and it may have reduced the impacts of the three major recessions our nation has faced since the baby boomers were conceived. The fact that our government is continuing this sham is a crisis as well. End the lie, End Social Security!! Heck, I would be willing to donate my portion to help pay off the national debt. If we all did that it might put a good dent into it. But then again some slick politico would jump in front of that gravy train and divert the funds somewhere else, I'm sure.

RSteyn said: "People owe too much, ..."

The Federal controlling interest rate has climbed from 1% to over 5%. I just paid off a home equity line of credit that looked pretty reasonable when it was at 4% but ugly at 8. I think that 1% was too low and that 5% is too high. The Feds need to stop acting like a healthy economy can turn on a dime. Of course, the low interest rates are loved by those whose metric is "home ownership rates" without any attention to indebtedness.

The dot-com bust was in part caused by easy money that enabled places like Mexico to install cell phone systems on credit based on the premise that they would eventually pay off.

RSteyn said: "the price of oil is unstable, ......"

It's unstable and high. I am absolutely floored by the fact that consumption in the US has only now stopped growing. This may bode well for the future, since there can be expected little growth in consumption as prices fall. We just might find ourselves swimming in oil soon. I would prefer that to any kind of supply interruption.

RSteyn said: "we appear to be on the threshhold of admitting millions of unassimilatable people who cost us billions while running down the calibre of schools, medical care, etc., ..."

This is a result of unbridled socialism here and corruption south of the border. If an American sneaks into a foreign country, I doubt that there is an expectation that he is entitled to free health care or education. Nor would it be tolerated for him to be working free of taxes.

High taxes make a powerful incentive for employers to hire these people and pay them off the books. The minimum wage law also provides an incentive to hire illegals at lower pay.

RSteyn said: "the housing market is a mirage......"

Housing has seen quite a run, but a lot of it, I think, is the result of inflationary expectations. The government can't be expected to maintain the value of the dollar, so it makes sense to invest in an asset that can appreciate. So far, very few people have lost money in real estate.

RSteyn said: "and one well-placed terrorist act could cripple the economy. ..."

September 11th was a pretty good shot. They killed 3000 and caused maybe $50 billion in direct and indirect damage. ( I think that is the number. )

But I sure wouldn't want to be a terrorist these days. There aren't many places to hide. Now that people understand, they behave differently. Flight 93 demonstrated that Americans were prepared to fight in order to cut our losses dramatically.

There may be yet another dramatic event in the US. But I doubt very much that it will create anything but greater anger and stiffen our resolve. The Demoncrats have seriously misread the American people.

All of the above issues have been affecting the US for some time. I would not characterize any of them as having caused dramatic dislocations. September 11th comes closest, but even then there were warning signs ignored by prior administrations.

The unemployment rate is at all time lows. The standard of living has not changed to any great degree. The trend is unescapable, though. These are far from "the worst of times" in my book. Surviving VietNam was a pretty fair challenge. There is no draft now and its unlikely that there will be one. National divisiveness is high but not at an all time high, I think.

Kalifornia has problems, though, It looks like they are proposing a record 130 billion dollar budget. If the economy turns down next year, there is no way they could spend that much again. I am much more concerned about the consequences of socialism here in the US than competition with the rest of the world.

>Which industries will you protect and by how much and for how long? <

Those absolutely essential for defense. Not in my wildest dreams can I imagine countries hostile to us selling these to us in time of war.

You need to look into tear-down prices. When electronics are put on the consumer market at a lower cost than their component parts, something is not quite right.

The ugly truth is this country could not fight a prolonged war of any magnitude. We have wonderful technology--as long as foreigners will sell us the parts.

I know tariffs are a dirty word. I'm also fairly sure that I will not live to see people locked in a factory in this country working 15 hour days to make cheap goods. But some of you maylive to be glad when your grandchildren can wrangle such plums.

Much has been said about how the looming retirement of 76 million baby boomers will stampede Social Security, which is expected to start running out of money in 11 years.

It's not the old people that are breaking social security - it's the "disability is the new welfare" crowd that's breaking the bank. And that's the dems and the usual suspects...

>September 11th was a pretty good shot. They killed 3000 and caused maybe $50 billion in direct and indirect damage. ( I think that is the number. ) <

You just aren't very imaginative. Give me 30 guys willing to blow themselves up and a budget of no more than $250,000, and I know how to bring this country to a crawl and put a lot of cities in the dark all winter. And I am not a terrorist--I'm not actively thinking about these things all the time, so I'm sure the bad guys have already thought of these things. It could all be done in the space of 30 minutes, and every armed warplane capable of taking to the skies could not stop it.

>So far, very few people have lost money in real estate.<

Wait'll the boomers try to cash in their McMansions, and the for sale signs spread across the land. Supply and demand. Unless, of course, the McMansions are sliced up into multiple apartments for all the illegals to burrow into.

>The unemployment rate is at all time lows. The standard of living has not changed to any great degree. <

Job growth has been in low-paying jobs. A lot of people are employed in jobs well below their capabilities. Do you consider a highly skilled person working as a waitress or delivering pizzas to be fully employed? What about the people who used to have health care through their employers but who is now stocking shelves and working for dirt money and no health insurance? There is a lot going on that isn't as happy as the numbers might indicate.

>There is no draft now and its unlikely that there will be one. <

Never say never. I cannot think of a time when so many different threats loomed over this country.

In fact, unless I really need it at some point, my intent is to never claim SS. I would have a guilty conscience, otherwise, and avoiding that is worth far more than the money.

You are a true conservative and Christian my near atheist, moderate friend.

I don't think the government will tax us younger people too much for this. It will kill the economy to do so...and the country goes with the economy.

Sure, but that's not going to help nearly as much as some think. It could get REALLY ugly, and so while you did the right thing and planned ahead, millions have not and will eye warily your assets once the SHTF.

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I prepared to the best of my abilities, my home, cars etc. are all paid for. I am still working and I am PRE-baby boom. The bad news is that as I have often said it all depends on the ratio of young workers to retirees in the end. Other than a favorable ratio the only thing that will save retirement is rapidly advancing robotics to do the work. People have bought into the idea that social security and pensions have changed all this but the fact is that they have only changed the details. People who lived past their working years used to depend on their own children. Now they all in aggregate must depend on all their descendants in aggregate.

OK, explain to me why teaching should be a more "honorable" and "cherished" profession than, say, computer programming, accounting, office manager,fireman, or any other.

Teachers perform a job, just like any other, and are well compensated for it.