Posted on 06/23/2006 11:49:11 AM PDT by Brilliant
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Air Force general responsible for building a U.S. anti-ballistic missile shield on Friday voiced high confidence it could shoot down any U.S.-bound missile from North Korea, despite critics' doubts.
"From what I've seen from our testing from the last several years ... and what I know about the system and its capabilities, I'm very confident," Lt. Gen. Henry "Trey" Obering told reporters after a speech to a seminar.
Obering, head of the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency, declined to confirm reports that ground-based U.S. interceptor missiles had been put on alert for a possible effort to shoot down what U.S. officials say could be Pyongyang's first long-range missile firing in eight years.
But he said the array of interceptor missiles, satellites, radar stations and data relays had been moved from a test status to "operational" configuration many times since the end of 2004, when the initial elements were deployed.
A total of 11 interceptors are now in silos as part of a rudimentary, multibillion-dollar shield -- nine at Fort Greely, Alaska, and two at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
The Pentagon has shot down mock warheads in five of 10 highly scripted intercept tests of the ground-based system. The United States has spent more than $92 billion on missile defense since then-President Ronald Reagan launched what critics called his "Star Wars" initiative in 1984.
'OUR REALITY NOW'
Obering's stated confidence contrasted with views of the Pentagon's own top weapons evaluator as well as those of many outside experts.
"As reported last year, there is insufficient evidence to support a confident assessment of limited defensive operations," David Duma, the Pentagon's director of operational testing and evaluation, wrote in an annual report to Congress on U.S. weapons dated February 1.
Obering said Duma's staff was coming at it "from a different perspective -- how can you break the system, what are the limits?"
"I'm telling you what is our reality now," he said.
Victoria Sampson of the private Center for Defense Information, which has been critical of the program, defended Duma's assessment.
"The operational testers do come at the problem from a different angle: their focus is to test the program as realistically as possible, while that approach seems to be an anathema to the rest of the Pentagon," she said.
Richard Lehner, a Missile Defense Agency spokesman, said Obering based his confidence on four consecutive successful intercept tests in 2001 and 2002.
"The bulk of the know-how gleaned from those tests is what's deployed today, which is why we have a high confidence in our capability," he said.
Boeing Co. is the prime contractor for the ground-based system, designed to shoot down incoming warheads in the middle of their flight, as they course through space. Other big U.S. missile-defense contractors include Lockheed Martin Corp., Northrop Grumman Corp. and Raytheon Co.
confidence...
with 78,85,92.5 or 95 percent confidence?
Don'tcha just love when journalists put on the green eyeshades and play CPA when it comes to Ballistic Missile Defense? Look at all the money that they are shoveling into New Orleans since Katrina. What if New Orleans were a smoking hole and clicking-hot with radioactive debris? Frankly, $92 Billion is a bargain if it works, and that counts DETERENCE.
Thank you President Ronald W. Reagan and President George W. Bush!
I think I'd rather get the opinion of the Young Airman or junior officers that have to pull the trigger on that thing.
I think that they feel that a missile intercept that works well enough so that there is something left of the US after the first wave of missiles arrive will be sufficient. I suspect their logic is that all they've gotta do is leave doubt in the attacker's mind that they will be able to completely wipe us out. If they can't, then the counter-attack will be fatal to them--and that is a certainty.
I compared missile defense research and spending and the criticism to it to AIDS research and spending to a liberal. He didn't get it, even after several attempts.
Is the reason for the trip a chance to get out of the country (bugging out) during the launch? Will he give a launch signal while he's gone and not be there to save face if it's shot down?
Or is he going there by Russian request and are they going to read him the riot act? Or is it because he's actually seeking THEIR advice?
They say it shot down 5 of 10 missiles. But I'm betting most of the misses came in the earlier tests.
I suspect that Kim is not going to be the Great Leader for long. I think the Russians and Chinese are finally beginning to catch on that this guy is dangerous to their health.
I guess 50% is better than 0%.
I'd rather see them more effective tho.
Genreal McInerny (Ret.) said on Hugh Hewitt that if we fired two missles at it he would estimate a 100% success rate.
so-in the case of little kim wouldn't a pre emptive strike with 100% assurity make more sense? or take a 40% probability of losing L.A.? better call the terminator on that one!
if it was a 80% system perhaps it would make senxe to wipe the first shot and then krater korea.....probably more politically correct.
I support this system, but frankly I am concerned at the, shall we say, underwhelming degree of testing. This after having gone to the political trouble of junking the ABM Treaty. At least get serious about deployment. Don't do it on a shoestring. That could have serious negative reprecussions...if in a real-world situation...it lets us down. It would do lasting damage to the idea of missile defense.
This is the one thing that bothers me. The Administration has slow-walked and prevented the go ahead of serious heavy-duty testing. And the money was there. They just wouldn't spend it. Weird.
By way of contrast, I think it is valuable compare the sheer number of tests we did for the old Sprint "last-ditch" Interceptor which was tested to the "nth" degree...
Full scale testing of the Sprint and the MSR (Missile Site Radar) began in mid-1970, and the first successful intercept of a reentry vehicle by a Sprint occurred in December 1970. A total of about 50 flight tests, the majority being successful, were conducted between this date and December 1973.
The most recent test did not even launch. The system shut down due to a mechanical failure in the launch mechanism. The missile itself was fine. The mechanical problem has been resolved and that particular failure will not recur.
Sprint was amazing. Zero to mach 8 in one second. Not many gun systems can do that.
"The Apache helicopters would never work because in peacetime they were "grounded" for repairs 50% of the time."
"The Abrams tanks would never make it in the desert because the engines would fill with sand and all the high-tech gizmos would fail just like they did in training."
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