If the GOP drops the immigration thing this year I think there will be a few losses in the House and maybe a net one seat loss in the Senate, but both chambers will remain Republican. I think the most important change has been the GOP base is starting to come home to Bush, because of some victories in Iraq like the Zarqawi offing as well as just simply out of fear of the extremism of the Democrats. There's nothing like a good debate over the Democrats' "retreat and defeat" policies on Iraq to focus the minds of conservatives over what's at stake in this election. Plus with gas prices coming down and the economy continuing to remain on good footing, I wouldn't bet against the GOP this fall at all.
Good point, but I still think the wild card in all this is going to be the illegal immigration issue. If the Republicans grow some balls and pass a bill that will make border security the primary issue (before any other "comprehensive" crap is considered), they will win in a big way. Without it, your prediction is right on target.
IMO, if they passed an enforcement only bill they'd guarentee gains in both the House and Senate.
If they simply kill amnesty I think they'll hold status quo, which is what I've said for months unlike these useless "experts" that ride the rollarcoaster everyday. :-)
I'd disagree in part with you over the "come home to Bush" aspect. Not quite true. On the WOT, saving a few, no one ever really left among the "base" in their support for the policy.
We're still worlds apart on illegal immigration and that allows friction in this relationship to still stand. But that friction doesn't really matter. So long as his policy doesn't actualize in a passed bill.
I really don't think this election is about him for anyone but Democrats anyway. It's about issues and turnout. And the reason I've never bought the polls or conventional beltway wisdom is that I'm confident conservatives are the majority. Therefore I'm confident the net result will be as conservatives determine it will be. I've always felt, then, not the NYT's, not the alphabet networks and not even John McCain really call the shots. Conservatives do. So it's always come down to whether we're motivated to turnout. If conservative actisvists are motivated to turnout, that translates into millions more votes because they'll man the polls, the GOTV efforts, door to door, etc.. pulling out the needed votes for the Majority.
And that's why conservatives have been screaming bloody murder, and been insulted many times for it, for demanding action from Republicans that WILL induce excitement and high turnout. And, yeah, there has been talk of boycotting the election and the talk has been serious too. But think the arrogant beltway cliques would listen if we weren't serious? Nope. They had to be convinced their butts were on the line to stop pandering to liberals and START making some steps back to the people that brung them, conservative activists, that need something to take to undecideds to convince them to vote Rep. Nancy pelosi ain't going to sell an undecided to vote Rep., and for awhile that was all they were offering.
Now I'm not stating I'm back on the GOP wagon. I'm not. I'm keeping them on a tight leash up till November. We'll see what they do between now and then. But I'm not AS mad as I was three months ago.