Posted on 06/19/2006 8:47:38 PM PDT by edpc
The Pentagon activated its new U.S. ground-based interceptor missile defense system, Bill Gertz reports in Tuesday's WASHINGTON TIMES, just as officials announced that any long-range missile launch by North Korea would be considered a "provocative act."
Poor weather conditions above where the missile site was located by U.S. intelligence satellites indicates that an immediate launch is unlikely, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
However, intelligence officials said preparations have advanced to the point where a launch could take place within several days to a month.
Two Navy Aegis warships are patrolling near North Korea as part of the global missile defense and would be among the first sensors that would trigger the use of interceptors, the officials said yesterday.
Gertz reports: The U.S. missile defense system includes 11 long-range interceptor missiles, including nine deployed at Fort Greeley, Alaska, and two at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The system was switched from test to operational mode within the past two weeks, the officials said.
Their Navy is almost all corvette and patrol type craft, few Destroyers and no capital ships. Their sub fleet is mostly diesel electric and pose a minimal threat also. We always have SSNs in the area, and what the air arm didn't send to the bottom, they would. Most of their ships are a minmal threat in any case. If you're talking 800 ships like Soviet Udaloy or Sovrymenny DDGs or Kresta or Kara CGs or similar capability ships, that's one thing, but they're all much smaller, lower speed, much less armament, and few have any real "blue water" capability.
Their tanks are old Soviet tanks, barely modified since the 80s, and it wouldn't take long for them to lose 2,000. I would't give their armored force more than a couple weeks, and the 2,000 they do have are at best T-65s and T-72s, totally obsolete by today's standards. The artillery would not last long either. Sure it would devestate Seoul and many facilities in range from the border, but air strikes would take many of those out in short time, and most of them their locations are known.
Their Air Force would not last long for obvious reasons. It's mostly made up of old MiGs and SU type attack planes. Maybe some SU-27s, but their pilots are not as good as ours. Their Air Force would last about as long as their navy if they really tried to engage for a long period of time.
Their army is a big threat, but with massive bombing, and other close air support, it doesn't take long to eliminate a million man army now a days even with just conventional weapons. We've killed over 100,000 terrorists in Iraq the past three years (that number is from central command in Baghdad, not official, but the number they use to keep track) and that's fighting an enemy that doesn't mass together in traditonal unit formations like North Korea would.
Their chem and bio weapons are a huge threat, but if they use them, our nukes are on the table, and they know that. Il can't unite the north if his whole nation is glowing in the dark, and I believe that if he launched a chemical or bioligical attack against the South, we would have no alternative but to respond likewise or with nukes. Either way, it would destroy almost all of that huge army of his. And it can't be ignored that many of the North Korean army is not interrested in the facist power hungry plans of their "leader". After 50 years of living in hell under him and his father, they hate him and it's unlikely that those millions of North Korean troops would fight to the death like their grand father's did in the 50s. They have quite a different mindset.
And it's not like the South hasn't been preparing also. They have some hellacious defenses lined up along the border opposing the North. And our soldiers and Marines are d**n good. It's not like we've been sitting around whistling dixie the past 50 years. They have a big army, but most of it's equipment is obsolescent or obsolete, and they don't even have the numerical superiority like the Soviets did in Europe. And while their army is huge, is would take Il 17 years to grow replacements. And he wouldn't last that long. Our equipment is better, and we have the space to deploy much of it out of range of a North Korean first strike, which he can't do because of the relative small size of his country. His navy is out manned and out gunned by ours, same with his air force. And using chem and bio weapons, or nukes against us would result in his total destruction. The world would not tolerate that and we would have to respond by wiping him out completely. A couple tactical nukes right in the middle of his massed troops, far enough that our troops would be safe, would eliminate many of the North's troops if Il pushed us to that. But that won't happen. He wouldn't use chem or bio or nuke weapons. MAD is at least one thing that would work on him that wouldn't with the islamic terrorists. He can't take over the south, if the north is obliterated, and that's what would happen if he used nukes or chem or bio weapons. We'd do to his country what we did to it in the 50s before the Chinese came in. The whole country was ours exceptfor the tiniest of areas and the North was defeated. That's just my take on it. And those reports are always made to sound as ominous as possible, though it is a very serious situation and would make Iraq look easy. The defenses in the South are VERY good, and I'd much rather fight a defensive war than an offensive war. It's always easier to defend your own back yard then go into someone elses and try to take it from them. So defending gives us an extra advantage if he ever attacked. But God willing he won't and the government will some day collapse under it's economic weight. God willing.
Even taking that report into consideration, the North could not knock us out in a a couple weeks, and that is what they'd have to do in order to neutralize our ability to move large numbers of men and hundreds of thousands of tons of material into the area. Much of the air and ground strength we have in the south is not with in easy striking range of the border. It would be too easy to wipe out there. Much of it is stationed in Japan still. It would be foolish to station most of our armored, artillery and air strength within the North's striking distance of the border. That would be beyond stupid.
The North Koreans can't knock us out but they can wreak so much havoc within a 1000 mile radius.
Well, you know, development and introduction of a major new weapons system into the Korean penninsula doesn't exactly square up with the cease-fire either.
They can wreak so much havoc even though they have obsolete items. I would say most of the things in that report is mostly accurate.
Does this mean the President Bush does not need congressional approval to send in troops or lob some missiles there way?
Thats very dangerous especially when you are dealing with other nations like Russia and China. You can start a global nuclear war.
As an eleven-year resident of Seoul, I believe I already knew that.
My point is that under the terms of the agreement signed back in 1953, neither side is permitted to introduce major new weapons systems into the penninsula.
Upgrades/rotation/replacement/improvement of existing systems are permitted, but no form of IRBM or ICBM existed in Korea in 1953; therefore the introduction of such a weapons system- well, it ain't exactly legal, if you catch my drift.
They started it. They are talking smack. China/USA is a symbiotic relationship that is dependent upon each other, and Russia is in shambles. They may talk - but would do nothing. Especially for Sung who is a crazy bastard - we'd be doing the planet a favor. Now is the best time - to kick ass - and show the world America means business.
I'd be surprised to see a boost or even a midcourse phase intercept. I don't think Aegis could pull it off, and I really don't think Japanese Aegis systems could pull it off.
At the end of ODS, after the Scud hit the QM barracks in Dhahran, 6 of 7 Scuds "exploded in mid-flight", well out of range of PAC-3 Patriots. FWIW. Prior to ODS, a guy who knew his way around FELs and knew enough to get pretty upset when I attempted to discuss lasing frequency with him told me that the wiggler cavity scaling problems had been resolved, that toughput was no longer an issue and that all components of a ground based laser defense system had been tested and were status operational. Personally I doubt this information, at the very least Bush acts like he's unaware of it if true.
Popping somebody else's missile is roughly on a par with taking your 30-06 out to Canaveral and running target practice on the shuttle. Unless it's inbound towards your territory. Then you have a clear right to self defense.
Conventional air to air missiles, like Phoenix, for example, aren't an option. They are designed for targets travelling at Mach 1 or 2. Orbital velocity starts around 17,000 mph, and escape velocity up at 25k. We had some cold war options for the F-15 that were notionally effective at those speeds, but I don't kow the current status of those systems, and besides, you need multiple, stable orbits to set up that kind of an intercept.
NMD might have a midcourse shot at a Korean missile, and any time after it tips over, headed for North America, I'd expect to see all efforts made to destroy it. Japan might have a terminal phase shot, if Japan was the target.
If Korea gets uppity over a shot-down missile, they will prep with artillery and invade South Korea conventionally. I don't believe Seoul would be "vaporized" but it won't be a fun place to be. If the NK's mass and head south, well in OIF, during the great "operational pause", standoff air delivered loitering cluster munitions put which between 2 and 6 RGFC divisions combat ineffective in less than 48 hours.
NK might clear Seoul, but they'd never see Pusan. That would also be the end of the joyous leader and he knows it.
Whether he's sane enough for the prospect to inhibit him is anyone's guess.
Carl Wolfgang Von Clausewitz in his treatise "On Strategy"said that waiting was a fundamental part in the act of war.
I'm no expert, but from what I've read, cold war era ICBM's from the former Soviet Union had an estimated travel time of 20 minutes to reach the Continental (northern) United States. If a U.S. interceptor did try to shoot down the aircraft, I'm guessing that it would have to be a far shot so as not to get shot down themselves and the window of oppurtunity would be very short (seconds) because the missile would be accelerating up to speeds in excess of Mach 20.
If an F-14 Launched a Phoenix after it aquired the missile and locked (say from 10 miles), I think the ICBM would outrun it!
Sorry... meant to type ICBM.
Talking smack does not count. Especially when you can slide into a global nuclear war very quickly.You must be justified and have a good reason when you are dealing with three nuclear powers within arms reach of each other.
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