Jobless Claims Dip to Lowest in 4 Months

NY Times ^ | 6/15/06 | AP Newsfeed

[Oshkalaboomboom]

Industrial production unexpectedly fell in May, reflecting weakness in manufacturing, as the economy flashed more signals of a spring slowdown.

The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities dropped by 0.1 percent last month following an increase of 0.8 percent in April.

The weakness last month reflected a slowdown of autos and auto parts as the U.S. auto industry continued to struggle with soaring gasoline prices that have sapped demand for sport utility vehicles.

Production of autos and auto parts fell by 1.3 percent last month following a smaller 0.2 percent drop in April.

The 0.1 percent drop in industrial production marked the first drop since a similar 0.1 percent fall in January. Economists believe that manufacturing, which had finally started to recover from the 2001 recession, will slow in coming months as overall economic growth slows.

The economy expanded at a sizzling pace of 5.3 percent in the first three months of the year but many economists believe that will slow to around 3 percent in the April-June quarter, as consumers struggle with rising interest rates, soaring gasoline prices and cooling home sales.

In other economic news, the Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of newly laid off workers filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 295,000 last week, the lowest level in nearly four months.

[Oshkalaboomboom]

You gotta love how the MSM tries their darndest to turn good news into bad. The headline is about a dip in jobless claims but they preface that with 6 paragraphs of news that they consider to be bad. It is bad, but only for Democrats and their lackeys in the press that are campaigning on the theme of an America that can do no right.

[edpc]

Why collect unemployment when there's so much 'Katrina Money' out there for the picking?

[The South Texan]

And the bad news keeps on getting worse for the Rats and the Drive By media........

[MichiganConservative]

I recently heard of a study that found that the biggest indicator of when you get a job is when your unemployment benefits run out.

[in hoc signo vinces]

I think there's some truth to that. I believe those people are placed in a class where they are considered to "no longer" be looking for work, thus taken out of the math that determines the unemployment rate. (Retirees fall into this group by default.)

[Jameison]

"The headline is about a dip in jobless claims but they preface that with 6 paragraphs of news that they consider to be bad"

Exactly what I was thinking.
But hey, hey it's The Slimes.
That's about par for the course as far as they are concerned.
They have developed disinformation and agenda driven journalism too a whole new level.
Even Soviet are Pravda is going to find it hard to compete with these suckers.

[1rudeboy]

I think there's some truth to that. I believe those people are placed in a class where they are considered to "no longer" be looking for work, thus taken out of the math that determines the unemployment rate. (Retirees fall into this group by default.)

This falsity is becoming a FR myth.

[in hoc signo vinces]

Considering that Roy Ruffin my economics professor in college spoke to it years back...I dont know how much a myth it is.

However, it may not be as much a factor as some my think. I tend to believe the rate is an accurate one and good economic news...not trumpeted by an MSM that hates the current administration.

Thanks.

In Hoc.

[1rudeboy]

Best let Prof. Ruffin know that unemployment compensation, and whether one collects it or not, is not a factor in determing the unemployment rate.

[in hoc signo vinces]

How do you know the BEA doesnt consider it a factor in determining those "out of the job search" when coming up with the unemployment rate? Granted, I have only heard second hand that it's a factor.

I've done some work with the BEA in the past, I'll call them and find out.

In Hoc.

[RightWhale]

(Retirees fall into this group

It's not all that easy avoiding work after retirement. Even when one stays home as one should there is always something that needs doing if one is objectivist. For instance, yesterday there were two squirrel fights in the yard that needed broken up.

[1rudeboy]

BEA? Why not BLS? "Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work."
Bureau of Labor Statisics.

[in hoc signo vinces]

The real question is what "labor component" is left out of the determination, which is the point. I understand "who" is considered unemployed...but the question put forth was "Is there a componenet of "unemployed" labor left out of the unemployment rate calculation?"

Yes, the BEA. w/o regard to the BLS, tracks all national economic statistics from manufacturing output to labor. usage...

[1rudeboy]

. . . but the question put forth was "Is there a componenet of "unemployed" labor left out of the unemployment rate calculation?"

Yes, and people whose unemployment benefits have run out are not, because failure to qualify for benefits is not a determining factor.

[in hoc signo vinces]

Which is why some feel the rate is skewed.

Think of it this way...when your unemployment benefits run out, and thus you are factored out of the calculation, arent you still "unemployed", so, the rate may be a bit artificially low.

[1rudeboy]

Think of it this way...when your unemployment benefits run out, and thus you are factored out of the calculation . . . .

As I keep reminding you, when your unemployment benefits run out, you ARE NOT factored out of the equation.

[Mase]

This falsity is becoming a FR myth.

Maybe the fact it's being taught in college level economic classes has something to do with the perpetuation of this myth.

This is from the BLS:

Where do the statistics come from?

Because unemployment insurance records, which many people think are the source of total unemployment data, relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940 when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. As explained later, the CPS estimates, beginning in 1994, reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey.

What are the basic concepts of employment and unemployment? The basic concepts involved in identifying the employed and unemployed are quite simple:

• People with jobs are employed.
  
• People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
  
• People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.
  

  Who is counted as employed?

  Not all of the wide range of job situations in the American economy fit neatly into a given category. For example, people are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time year-round employment. Persons also are counted as employed if they have a job at which they did not work during the survey week because they were:

• On vacation;
  
• Ill;
  
• Experiencing child-care problems;
  
• Taking care of some other family or personal obligation;
  
• On maternity or paternity leave;
  
• Involved in an industrial dispute; or
  
• Prevented from working by bad weather.

  Who is counted as unemployed?

• Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.

  Who is not in the labor force?

• All members of the civilian noninstitutional population are eligible for inclusion in the labor force, and those 16 and over who have a job or are actively looking for one are so classified. All others--those who have no job and are not looking for one--are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who do not participate in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force. Still others have a physical or mental disability which prevents them from participating in labor force activities.

  BLS FAQ's

I think this is where the misconceptions arise and people begin believing that there are millions of discouraged workers in America who have just given up looking. Why someone who needs a job would not be looking for a job during any given four week period is a mystery. How they would survive is another question.

Regardless, the belief remains that there are a great many potential workers in American who have given up and resigned themselves to permanent unemployment - although the government does not count them as such. Fortunately, NR debunked this myth for us.

The percentage of unemployed people who have given up looking for work is low, by historical standards, and has recently been dropping. We know this, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the same agency that counts the number of unemployed people, also counts the number of discouraged workers — or the number of people who have given up looking for work and say they have done so because they believe there is no appropriate work to be found.

Here's what the BLS found: Only about a third of a percent of American workers are classified in the "discouraged" category. That's right: Ninety-nine and two-thirds percent are not discouraged. This is hardly the teeming mass of employment despondency that we have been led to believe is out there.

The Myth of the Discouraged Worker (Have American workers been giving up in the Bush economy?)