I thought we had a 45% chance to advance coming into this WC.
My new thoughts are we have about a 10% chance to advance.
We need to beat Italy, we all know that, but Italy has far better players technically speaking and know that they likely would only need a draw from us to advance (considering the goal differential).
The Italians will be watching for the CZE/GHA result (that game is first up Saturday). If the Czechs win, the Italians will probably bunker down and play very conservatively. A tie is all they need to advance at that point.
“We need to beat Italy, we all know that, but Italy has far better players technically speaking and know that they likely would only need a draw from us to advance (considering the goal differential).”
Your consolation is that Italy will be looking to win, if they have any sense. (Likely) Avoiding Brazil is a BIG incentive not to draw against you guys.