Posted on 06/08/2006 9:08:40 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
New Rules Could Spell End For Four-Holers
Is the FAA close to settling the ETOPS question? The Wall Street Journal says yes... and the ruling could favor twin-engine commercial aircraft like those now sold by Boeing.
ETOPS officially stands for "extended twin engine operations." The gist of it is... the distance between emergency airfields for planes operating over oceans... deserts... or the North Pole. In 1984, the interval between possible landing points was 60 minutes for any twin-engined jet aircraft with an engine failure; that was doubled to 120 minutes in 1985.
In 1987, it went up to 180 minutes -- allowing for 767 operations across the North Atlantic. That rule was eventually extended to the 777, as well.
Still, those aircraft have to stay within three hours of a suitable airport... which can add miles to long-haul routes -- especially those over the Pacific. Airbus has even turned this into a marketing ploy, by coining the slogan, "4 engines 4 the long haul," in ads for its own -- ahem -- four-engined A340.
That slogan may be soon be out of date. The Journal reports the FAA is close to changing the ETOPS rule once again... allowing 777's to operate an unprecedented five-and-a-half hours between emergency landing sites, and allowing more economical flights for Boeing.
"It's where the real world was headed," said Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia. "This is the next logical step."
That could also spell the end for the Airbus A340 program, which has already been taking hits for being less efficient than its twin-engined competitor from the US.
The FAA's version of ETOPS could be released later this year... and European regulators are now working on similar rules.
ETOPS 330
With ETOPS 330, the only region of the world off limits to twin engined planes is Antarctica.
LOL! Airbust takes another hit.
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Isn't ETOPS-180 really ETOPS-207 for the 777 anyway?
I guess this will allow the closure of the airport on Midway, if adopted.
It's ETOPS-207 in the North Pacific during winter, but it is per operator. Each airline has to prove it can safely operate ETOPS-207.
Could be Boeing will take a hit too with the final shutdown of the 747 line. I don't think there are too many orders for the 747 though, so the hit wouldn't be as big as the hit Airbus will take.
Actually, it will kill the 747 as well.
Anything with more than 2 engines will be non competitive.
330 is too much. One disaster will end it.
And planes crash.
Anything with more than 2 engines will be non competitive.
That depends on CASM. The 747-8 will still have a lower CASM than the 787.
The 747-8 hasn't even made its first flight yet but already has a couple dozen orders; why would the line be shut down anytime soon?
On a side note Boeing's web site is showing the first order for a single 747-8I (passenger model), customer unlisted. Maybe some VVIP is gonna be the first guy on his block to fly the new model...
Which would still leave it marketable. Does ETOPS also affect air cargo flights?
I saw a great looking F-16 on E-Bay today, exact replica, smaller of course, but it looks like the real thing, made out of wood. Pretty cool replication.
Supposedly QANTAS is interested in flying the 747-8 to Dallas (DFW). It has the range to fly year round between Sydney and Dallas both directions. Their One World partner American Airlines has its biggest hub at DFW. Most major cities in North America have nonstop flights to and from DFW. Flying to DFW would allow 1-stop service to an from Sydney to many cities in the midwest and southeastern US that currently would require 2-stops.
Yeah, but if the CASM for the 380 beats the 747, an airline that uses both will have to rethink.
But the future is clearly 2 holers.
Of course once Midway Island closes, you lose a emergency stop between OZ and North America....(and they ain't gonna land at Kwajalein!)
The big dough is gonna be in 250 seat flights from India to the US, and Thailand/Malaysia to the US nonstop.
I just went to Spiegel Online (English) and ran "Airbus". There were a lot hits. Sounds like the leadership disputes between the French and Germans is out of control. There are quite a few negative stories...it seems like Spiegel likes Airbus about as much as Time likes President Bush.
Yeah, I saw that, but what airline would order just one of a new type? A daily SYD-DFW would take at least two if not three airframes, not to mention the expense of operating a single example of a new subtype.
Check your map. Midway is about 1300 miles west-northwest of Honolulu. It is a diversion for North Pacific flights not OZ to USA flights.
It could also operate Mel-SFO, SYD-YVR, or even MEL-YVR. The 747-8 will have more available freight than the A380 even with a full passenger load.
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