US gives green signal to Agni III (China-specific Indian missile)

WASHINGTON: The United States has given New Delhi a go-ahead to test its Agni III missile as part of an overarching plan to groom India as a "junior partner" in the Indian Ocean region, the intelligence think-tank Stratfor has said.

Washington green signal came during the recent visit to New Delhi of the U.S Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace, following which India has announced that the Agni III testing which it had deferred would be conducted in August, Stratfor reported in a June 7 commentary. With the assurance that the testing would not affect the pending U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear deal, Pace, it said, also indicated that the U.S would like India to assume a much greater role in patrolling the Strait of Malacca.

"Pace's four-day visit to New Delhi and his comments have a geopolitical undercurrent: The United States is developing India into a junior partner in the Indian Ocean region," the highly-regarded intelligence bulletin observed.

Stratfor said India had put off testing its Agni-III missile for fear of further endangering the U.S-India nuclear agreement. But Pace's June 5 announcement that Washington would not see the missile test as a nuclear-proliferation concern changed New Delhi's reasoning. India, realizing that the United States likely would not approve the civilian nuclear deal until at least autumn, was happy to get the go-ahead from at least the U.S. executive branch.

However, the indications in Washington are that the nuclear deal could clear Congress in July, in which case an August test would not particularly affect its outcome. Even otherwise, August is a month of recess for the Congress and if the deal fails to pass in summer, it might as well be pushed to the next Congress which will be elected in November.

Stratfor though says New Delhi attention to -- and desire for -- U.S. approval suggests that India is playing its role in the development of a strategic partnership between Washington and New Delhi. The relationship is a potentially deep one: the United States will provide India with nuclear technology, development capital, and military hardware and training; in return, India will help safeguard U.S. interests in the Indian Ocean region, it said.

"The partnership could also powerfully demonstrate to Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf that the United States would not act to block a resurgent India from attacking Pakistan (not that such a scenario is likely) and also help take New Delhi out of Iran's orbit," Stratfor analysts, who are mostly former intelligence officials and remain unnamed, wrote.

The Stratfor analysis said Pace's visit merely formalized what has already been occurring: a coming together of Indian and American interests in a confederation of convenience. Washington would like New Delhi to break out of its shell and exert enough influence in the region to "at least annoy China and a recalcitrant Pakistan." New Delhi would like to get whatever it can from its latest patron, the United States, "in order to help alleviate its massive infrastructure problems, which are preventing India from becoming a major world power."

Washington, Stratfor said, would like India to shoulder responsibility and become a powerhouse in the Indian Ocean, second only to the U.S. Navy. The United States hopes that an India more involved in the Malacca Strait and with an improved navy will make China nervous.

As Malacca is a chokepoint for Chinese trade and energy supplies, the naval frontier is essentially the only potential conflict point between New Delhi and Beijing, which otherwise are for all intents and purposes a continent away from one another, it said.

http://www.stararticle.com/article_110137_India-Japan-to-cooperate-in-Malacca-Straits-security.html

India, Japan to cooperate in Malacca Straits security

Tokyo, May 26 (IANS) India and Japan Friday decided to enhance cooperation in the maritime security of the Malacca Straits and the Indian Ocean region by tackling trans-national crimes like piracy, human trafficking and smuggling of arms and drugs.

'We do feel that in order to ensure maritime security in the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Straits, cooperation between India and Japan will be helpful,' Indian Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee said at a news conference at the National Press Centre here on the second day of his four-day visit to Japan.

His remarks came after a meeting with Japanese Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Kazuo Kitagawa.

During the meeting, the two countries agreed to cooperate in search and rescue operations and in the protection of the marine environment.

To this end, the two ministers announced concrete measures such as holding of annual Coast Guards' talks, regular exchange of visits, exchange of Coast Guard ship visits, holding of combined exercises for anti-piracy, search and rescue, disaster relief and other areas of mutual interest.

At the press conference, Mukherjee said a primary objective of defence cooperation between India and Japan is to ensure maritime security in the Indian Ocean region.

'The security environment has changed after 9/11.Cross-border terrorism has assumed much more importance in the context of security,' he maintained.

'Also, the security of maritime trade, security of sea lanes which carry major energy sources and the growing concentration of lethal weapons in the hands of non-state actors require the collective intervention of the world community, who have interest in peace and stability of the world.

'Therefore, I do feel it is necessary to have defence cooperation among the peace loving countries all over the world including our region. Japan is an important collaborator of India in our economic and trade activities,' Mukherjee added.

The minister answered questions covering a wide range of subjects.

Asked why India was modernising its defence forces in a big way, Mukherjee said 'our defence policy is entirely oriented towards self-preservation and self-protection'.

Even as the modernisation process was underway, India's defence spending was well below three percent of total GDP, he pointed out.

Mukherjee strongly defended the India-US civilian nuclear deal, saying 'we require energy to ensure our rapid development. India presently has a growth rate of eight percent.

'We must sustain growth at the level of eight-10 percent for a number of years and for that we require energy. That is the rationale of our entering into an arrangement with the United States. I do hope the US Congress will ratify the arrangement, after which the Nuclear Suppliers Group will also recognise and help India gain access to technology, material and equipment,' he added.

Speaking about non-proliferation, he said that while India had not signed the NPT, it had voluntarily accepted most of its obligations under NPT by declaring a ban on further testing, both horizontally and vertically.

On his visit to China beginning Sunday, he said: 'We will exchange views about our respective perceptions on different issues concerning our mutual interest.

'We have established a regular mechanism through the institution of special envoys appointed by both countries who are discussing the unresolved border issues. They are meeting regularly and exchanging views. Those talks are going on satisfactorily,' he said.

'We firmly believe that as we have to live with our neighbours, it is desirable that we should live in peace. Our entire policy is directed towards that. We try to resolve outstanding issues through dialogue, debate and discussions,' he added.

On Pakistan, Mukherjee said although all outstanding issues between the two countries had not been resolved, there have been certain positive developments.

'We are engaged in a constructive composite dialogue with Pakistan...The ceasefire is continuing on the border since November 2003 and both sides in their bilateral talks have reaffirmed the continuation of the ceasefire. We have also been able to build up people-to-people contacts on both sides of the border', he said.

Mukherjee also visited the Nippon Electronic Corporation (NEC) factory at Fuchu near here Tokyo. With an annual turnover of $45 billion, NEC is one of the leading suppliers of electronic devices and equipment to the Japan Defence Agency.

The delegation members were taken on a guided tour during which they were shown a mobile three-dimensional radar in which the antennae is rotated electronically. It has a ground-to-air communication system and can be integrated with an airborne warning and control system (AWACS).

During the day, Mukherjee called on Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe and Minister for Foreign Affairs Taro Aso and discussed regional and global issues.

JUST IN:

Why Didn't the Agni III Fly?

WASHINGTON, DC, United States (UPI) -- The Agni III ICBM, the pride of India`s strategic deterrent force, has been shot down before it could even conduct its first test flight. Why did the Indian government pull the plug?

The ambitious rail and road-mobile Agni III was the pride of the Indian strategic missile program and was designed to have a range of at least 2,000 miles, giving it the capability of reaching almost all of China with nuclear weapons.

Indian Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee said May 16, 'As responsible members of the international community, we want to keep our international commitments on non-proliferation.' Those comments certainly suggested that U.S. pressure had been behind the decision not to test the new ICBM. And many analysts came to that conclusion.

'The United States has always been very suspicious about India`s Agni program, and in 1994 persuaded it to suspend testing of (earlier, shorter-range versions of) the missile after three test flights,' a report in Asia Times Online said on May 25. 'The U.S.-backed Missile Technology Control Regime seeks to prevent the proliferation of missiles capable of delivering a 1,100-pound payload over distances of more than 180 miles.'

But the Indian government denied that U.S. pressure had anything to do with their decision. And there is good reason to believe their denials.

The Bush administration remains gung-ho about its developing strategic relationship with India. If anything, administration hawks led by Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and their advisers would welcome the test flight of the Agni III. In their eyes, it would put India on the strategic map and give it far more credibility as a potential threat and counterweight to China on the continent of Asia.

Democratic Party heavyweights and potential presidential contenders have been notable by their silence on the issue, and by their failure to jump on the anti-proliferation bandwagon to oppose it.

The problem for the pro-India Bush administration hawks is that no major leaders in New Delhi -- in either the ruling UPA-Congress alliance or the main Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party opposition -- want to play the role Washington strategists have dreamed up for them. India`s relations with China were dramatically warming up even in the last year of the old BJP-led coalition in 2003-4 under then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and the trend has only intensified under his successor Manmohan Singh.

Mukherjee has just concluded a highly successful visit to Beijing, where he signed a potentially far-reaching Memorandum of Understanding with China. And on June 15, India will attend as an invited and friendly observer the fifth anniversary summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by Russia and China. The SCO, also known as the Shanghai Pact, is dedicated to opposing the spread of U.S. influence in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. But it is actively seeking close diplomatic and even strategic ties with India, as well as with Pakistan and Iran.

Singh`s ruling Congress Party has traditionally sought close relations with China, ever since the idealistic days of the Non-Aligned Movement led by Jawarhalal Nehru, Mao Zedong and Indonesian President Sukarno in the 1950s.

Singh has made clear that he would rather spend money on social programs than on ambitious strategic missiles that he believes India does not need.

'I have been concerned about the problems of cost and time overruns which have plagued our defense industry for decades now,' the prime minister said in mid-May. 'For it is also true that each project that undergoes cost and time overruns is also siphoning off vitally regarded resources away from other defense projects, and ultimately, from the nation`s poor.'

The main strategic threat to India is not directly from China, but from Pakistan`s formidable intermediate-range ballistic missile program. Pakistan is believed to have up to 150 usable nuclear warheads. Much of the technical excellence and accuracy attributed to the Pakistani intermediate-range missile force is thought by U.S. and Indian intelligence analysts to be caused by components supplied by China.

But India already has a formidable intermediate range nuclear-capable missile force of its own with the Agni-II IRBM. India is also developing, as Israel did before it, a survivable second strike nuclear capability with nuclear-armed cruise missiles carried on board French-built Skorpene diesel submarines.

So developing the Agni-III only makes sense if India believes it is going to face a serious direct strategic threat from China in the immediate or foreseeable future. But India-China relations have been warming under both BJP-led and UPA-Congress-led governments for the past three years.

It is India, not China, that is developing an ambitious eventual three aircraft carrier surface fleet to potentially control the crucial oil export seaways out of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. China is not currently planning to build any carriers at all, and may therefore be dependent on India at some future point to ensure the security of its own oil import sea trade from the Middle East.

The decision not to test-fire the Agni-III, therefore, was not made out of weakness, fear or some naive, misplaced idealism. It was based on shrewd power calculations in Delhi. India currently enjoys the benefits of excellent strategic relations with the United States, Russia and China. It has already reaped rich dividends from its close ties with both Washington and Moscow. It is likely the warming ties between India and China will also see some interesting quid pro quos.

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