al Qaida has a strong base in Somalia and that has been considered their fallback position.
They ran the UN and President Clinton out of Mogadishu (Black Hawk Down) in the early 90's.
My recollection is that the genocide there has made it a lawless place and the outlaws and warlords fight each other. al Qaida could buy itself a base there, and many of the survivors of all the famine and war are one's who think bin Laden, et al, are heros.
Anyone with better knowledge, please set in.