Bilbray wins and begins campaigning all over again

SAN DIEGO -- U.S. Rep.-elect Brian Bilbray's reward for a hard-fought victory is a House seat for seven months — and another campaign against the same Democrat he vanquished in a special election to fill the seat vacated by disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

While the candidates, and probably the issues, will be the same in November, there will be one major difference: Bilbray will be running as an incumbent. And that makes it even more of an uphill battle for school board member Francine Busby.

Whether the race for a two-year term is as close as this week's 4 percentage-point victory by Bilbray may depend on whether Democrats are willing to again spend so freely on Busby's campaign.

Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, said it's unlikely Democrats will devote significant resources to a district where Republicans hold a nearly 3-to-2 advantage in registered voters.

"Both sides are going to figure that this one is pretty much settled," said Jacobson. "Bilbray is going to be an incumbent, she's going to have a much tougher time raising money, and there's going to be a lot less national attention with all the other races going on."

The special election for the 50th District seat was closely watched by national leaders in both parties, who saw it as a possible bellwether for the fall elections, in which Democrats hope to wrest 15 seats from the GOP and win control of the House. The national Democratic Party spent nearly $2 million on the race, supplementing Busby's own $2.5 million.

Even with that extraordinary expenditure for a House race, Busby was outspent as the GOP poured more than $4.5 million to keep the seat in Republican hands.

Gubernatorial Primary Election
County Reporting Status

U.S. Congress District 50
100.0% ( 500 of 500 ) precincts reporting as of Jun 7, 2006 at 5:56 pm


Districtwide Returns	County Returns \| Other Contests

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  Candidate                                   Votes  Percent

Democratic

  Chris Raye Young                            4,703   10.2   
  Francine Busby                             41,165   89.8

Republican

  Howard Kaloogian                            2,856    4.9   
  Scott Turner                                  723    1.2   
  Victor E. Ramirez                           1,088    1.8   
  Alan K. Uke                                 1,472    2.4   
  Scott C. Orren                                746    1.2   
  Bill Hauf                                   7,499   12.7   
  Richard Earnest                               830    1.4   
  Brian P. Bilbray                           32,117   54.3   
  Eric Roach                                  8,217   13.9   
  Bill Morrow                                 3,647    6.2

Libertarian

  Paul King                                     486  100.0

Peace & Freedom

  Miriam E. Clark                                61  100.0

* = Incumbent
No candidates qualified on behalf of the Natural Law Party.

County Returns for

This district is entirely contained within San Diego County.
County returns are identical to Districtwide returns.

Dems are already spinning this one. From an email to my throw away address received today;

"In a race that unexpectedly became one of the most competitive in congressional history, Francine Busby sent a shot across the GOP bow and proved that even in the most reliably Republican district, the message of change and a new direction for the country is resonating with voters.

As an editorial in The Washington Post wrote this morning...

"If Republican were breathing easier this morning, they had few illusions about what lies ahead. The extraordinary effort to hold onto a seat that has long been safely in GOP hands underscored the challenges as they try to retain their congressional majorities in November at a time when President Bush's approval ratings remain weak, the party's coalition is fracturing and voters are repulsed by the taint of corruption in Washington."

Francine was a tough candidate who fought hard. She couldn't have come as far as she did without the support of our members like you in districts nationwide. She will have another opportunity to win this seat in November, when Republicans in her district will once again be divided. But, the truth revealed in this election is that voters are demanding change and new priorities. This November, in districts around the country -- many more moderate than Busby's -- we will be fighting for new priorities in Congress. The NRCC can't spend almost five million dollars in every district to keep their majority.

CA-50 is a district that President Bush carried by 11 points in both 2000 and 2004 - this race should not have been close. By all measures this was a safe Republican Congressional seat. Yet, Francine Busby forced the Republican Party to spend close to five million defending it - the most federal money the NRCC has spent on a House race, ever."

They go on calling it a "solidly Republican District," but already admitted Bush carried it by only "11 points." Doesn't sound too "Solid" to me.

I guess they just need to feel better about another losing candidate.

Next thing you know there will be moral congressmen, all dems of course.

I almost felt as good today as I did after the 2004 election. I never believed one poll that was release showing the busbrain winning. I am a conservative, and I hate the job our Republican leaders have done while running congress, but the alternative is far worse. Pelosi as speaker and Rangel as head of the ways and means committee.

Nope this was a great day. We are safe for another two years.

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