Posted on 06/07/2006 7:16:36 AM PDT by blogblogginaway
From their memo to "GOP friends" (i.e. talking points):
Update: With 90.2% of the precincts reporting, Republican Brian Bilbray leads Democrat Francine Busby by 4,814 votes - 49.5% to 45.2%. The Associated Press has called the race for Brian Bilbray.
In San Diego County (of which the 50th District is a part) there are about 40,000 absentee ballots remaining to be counted today, as well as over 14,000 provisional ballots. So it will be at least this afternoon before we have final results.
Note: Brian Bilbray also won the GOP primary last night for the right to face Democrat Francine Busby on the ballot in November.
The following post-election analysis may be helpful to you as you discuss the race and its implications:
Ø A Democrat “Culture of Corruption” Defeat – There are no moral victories in politics. A loss, is a loss, is a loss. Democrats lost the election despite the heavy emphasis they placed on ethics and corruption in this race, and the fact that Francine Busby ran for this seat nonstop for almost 2-1/2 years. Busby has now failed three times in 19 months to put CA-50 in the Democrat column.
Ø Democrats Failed to Capitalize on a Friendly Environment. A loss does not create a shockwave. Not only did National Democrats lose in a district where the right track/wrong track has plummeted in recent months, they also failed to take advantage of an environment as friendly to their "culture of corruption" argument as they are going to find: the GOP incumbent resigned and then went to jail while the Republican candidate to succeed him was a lobbyist.
Ø This Was a Team Effort. The NRCC spent just over $4.5 million on voter contact. The Administration was very helpful – President Bush, First Lady Laura Bush and Vice President Cheney all recorded GOTV phone calls and Vice President Cheney hosted a fundraiser. The RNC organized the Election Day GOTV operation. Senator McCain was a big help as well, hosting a fundraiser and recording both a radio ad and a GOTV phone call.
Ø The NRCC's Commitment to This Race Made the Difference. The NRCC spent what it took to win. The NRCC ran an extensive voter contact program including: absentee ballot program, television, direct mail, phone calls, and radio.
Ø Special Elections Are Unique. It is no surprise that this was a close race. Historically, the results of special elections do not always reflect a district's traditional profile.
THE LANDSCAPE
Ø The Candidates – Democrats effectively attacked Congressman-elect Brian Bilbray for being a lobbyist as well as for being a former Member of Congress who missed votes to travel on junkets. All this in a district where the former Member went to jail for being bribed by a lobbyist. This was a very effective attack for the Democrats.
At the same time Francine Busby was attacked for her pro-amnesty position on immigration and for her position in favor of tax increases – both not wanting to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and her past support for increasing the gas tax.
Ø The Environment – There was significant erosion in the overall environment during the course of this campaign. Since March, the right track / wrong track numbers went from 33-59 to 23-70.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Ø Local Issues Made The Difference. National issues were not a factor in this race. While Francine Busby and National Democrats concentrated their efforts on attacking Brain Bilbray as a lobbyist, it was Busby’s positions on immigration and taxes that were the main focal points for Bilbray and anti-Busby voters.
Ø Campaigns Matter. Despite having the more effective attacks and a very favorable environment, the Democrats couldn’t win the race. This campaign proved that in competitive House races, despite the environment, voters will be forced to focus on the choice between the two individuals on the ballot.
Good news. On the negative side, the GOP needed to outspend the Dems about 2:1 (if I read the numbers correctly) to save this seat. But a win's a win.
Dims anti-corruption theme not selling.
Considering the reason this seat was open (CUNNINGHAM), the GOP had no choice in the spending. I don't see it as a huge factor.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=H5DmDtWr0WE
Bilbray won because of one guy with a tape recorder was able to record the truth.
How can it sell? With Black racist felons like Cynthia McKinney and William Jefferson in the Democrat Party, the Democrat scum and vermin are going nowhere!!!
1) There was a massive corruption factor working against Bilbray via Cunningham. He overcame that.
2) There was an ultra-conservative who split the vote.
3) Busby still didn't get more than 45%.
Folks, if the Dems can't win this seat, they will have trouble winning anything.
Oh, I'm in agreement with you. I was just making an observation. But it was certainly worth the money to deny the Dems more crowing about their pending tidal wave (yeah, right) in November.
Wasn't aware #2 was much of a factor. Did s/he grab approx. the remaining 5%?
Yes. The Candidate supported by the Minutemen claimed 5% of the vote.
Okay, thanks. Definitely an impact on Bilbray's totals.
The ultra conservative got 5%, meaning that Bilbray/conservative got 55%/45% over the open borders people.
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