Posted on 06/07/2006 5:26:05 AM PDT by areafiftyone
The shape of the 2008 presidential sweepstakes is gradually becoming clearer through the fog of war. There is a surprising and artful symmetry in how each partys contest is shaping up.Both parties have clear front-runners Hillary Clinton and John McCain around whom the race will be formed. In each party there is a looming presence whose entry into the race could change it completely. And there is an assortment of ideologically more extreme contenders who are trying to break through and challenge the front-runner.
In the Republican primaries, McCain runs far ahead of all other contenders. But the specter of Rudy Giuliani hangs over the nominating process. If Rudy runs, his challenge will most directly affect McCain, who then would have to battle for the moderate side of the party. But if Rudy stays out, the contest will polarize around the Arizona senator.
But since McCain is to the left of the GOP despite his efforts to court the Right he will inevitably face a runoff in the primaries against the great right hope, a title for which Virginia Sen. George Allen, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist are competing. Gov. George Pataki of New York and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska are considering runs for the nomination, but both would have to battle McCain for the center-Left and neither will be able to get much traction in the face of McCains appeal.
The problem is that McCain probably cant win the Republican nomination. He is too independent, original, creative, and populist for his party. A party that prides itself on regularity and corporate grayness wont take a chance on a maverick who led the fight for tough corporate governance, against big tobacco, for campaign-finance reform, against CIA torture, and for tough environmental regulation. So the challenger who emerges from the right-wing mini-primary will probably be the nominee.
Interestingly, there is no tall mountain to climb for a challenger in the right-wing alternative-to-McCain derby. Allen is running a narrow first, with Romney slightly behind him. Frist will probably die early from diseases he caught running the Senate. Huckabee, a tremendous speaker with a clerical past and a galvanizing presence, could be a formidable late starter. But none of these candidates is getting many votes, and a good showing by anyone in a debate or a straw poll could begin a miniature landslide. My own bet is that Huckabee is the strongest of the field because of his platform skills. (Disclosure: hes a former client of mine.)
On the Democratic side, Hillary is under increasing fire for her failure to move to the left on the Iraq war. In a massive miscalculation, she aimed at winning the general election by backing the war before she got the nomination, which will be decided by antiwar Democratic primary voters. Her error opens the door for Al Gore, the figure who is the equivalent of Giulianis looming presence over the Republican primary.
If Gore runs, it will be a dogfight to the end between these two veterans of the Clinton administration. Gore, a virgin on the war and the certified owner of the climate/energy/gas price issue, would give Hillary a very tough contest.
If Gore runs, there is no room for anybody else. If Gore doesnt go for it, Sen. John Kerry and former Sen. John Edwards will assert their claims, but I think they will be easily pushed aside by Hillary. Both backed the war and are seen as losers in the wake of 2004s disaster.
But that does not mean Hillary will have a cakewalk even if Gore stays out. Voters are antsy about nominating Hillary, worried that she is a polarizing figure who cant win. That could open the way for a crop of new Democratic contenders like former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
But my bet is that if Gore doesnt run, Hillary wins the nomination.
As to the election, whoever wins the Democratic nomination in 2008 will get elected president unless:
(A) Either McCain, Giuliani or my old favorite Condoleezza Rice gets the GOP nomination, or
(B) McCain runs as an independent, a race he could win, thereby reshaping American politics forever.
Try liberal or backstabbing. It would be more accurate.
A party that prides itself on regularity and corporate grayness...
That's right! We pride ourselves on being boring! /sarcasm.
It's wonderful you don't give a rat's a$$ about others' opinions, but you should care about what happens to your country should it end up in the wrong hands. Do you really think there would be no difference between a Giuliani presidency and a, God help us, Clinton presidency?
Even democrats know Gore is a moron.. Morris must be one too..
Thanks for making my point
Read anything I have written on the subject over the past several months and you will see that he is plagiarizing each of my conclusions.
All I can say is its going to be a verrrrry interesting race. I'm looking forward to it.
Rudy did a lot for New York, but carries a lot of liberal baggage to make it in flyover country. Pro-Sodomite, anti-2nd-Amendment, and pro-abortion are the three positions I remember off the top of my head that really give conservatives heartburn about him.
LOL Oh that's nothing you should have been on one of my posts yesterday. The Quinnipiac poll saying Giuliani is the most popular politician. It was the same people saying the same old things. It was non-stop action packed! LOL
He is not pro-gay marriage.
I thought it was Condi vs. Hillary? He even wrote a book about it.
Dick Morris has no respect for the pro-life vote - he thinks it is immaterial. With Roberts and Alito we know how important it is to have a pro-life guy in the big chair.
He is ? Didn't find that anywhere on Fox site (or Bill's). I wonder if JFnK will indeed come clean or wriggle once again.
I guess he finally got the hint that CONDI IS NOT RUNNING. NEITHER IS JEB BUSH AND NEWT!
Didn't Quinnippiac have Golisano winning.
I don't remember if it did or not - I kinda forgot about that race. LOL Of course Quinnipiac is not one of the Best polls but all the pollsters either make some freepers happy and others angry. There is no poll that pleases everyone.
You can add pro-illegal alien to that.
AH, THE RACE BETWEEN THE GOOBER AND THE GOOD GUY........
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