Ag Secretary Says Bird Flu Easily Found

AP Photo: Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, left, accompanied by Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, during...

WASHINGTON - Scientists have a new test that can tell within four hours if a bird is possibly infected with bird flu — but it still will take about a week to know if that suspect case is really sick with the deadly Asian strain, Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said Tuesday.

Bird flu hasn't yet reached North America, but testing of migrating wild birds has begun in an attempt to catch it early if it does. There have been no worrisome discoveries yet, Johanns told The Associated Press.

Four hours also is how long it takes to get preliminary results in people infected with the H5N1 virus, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said in the joint interview. But if bird flu ever begins spreading easily among people, that's too long, he warned.

"If it occurs anywhere in the world, it's just a matter of weeks until it appears in the United States," Leavitt said, stressing U.S. preparations that include research into faster human tests for the disease as well as vaccines and treatments. Previously, officials have said that tests allowed them to tell within a day of testing whether a bird was possibly infected with bird flu.

Bird flu has killed at least 127 people worldwide since it began spreading in Asia in late 2003, and tens of millions of poultry and other birds have died of it or been destroyed to stem outbreaks. It is difficult for people to catch — most infections so far have been linked to close contact with infected birds or their droppings.

But experts fear the virus could mutate into a form easily spread between people, potentially sparking a worldwide outbreak.

It's considered likely that an infected bird eventually will wing its way to North America, perhaps mingling with native birds on breeding grounds in Alaska who then could bring H5N1 south to infect other birds.

An infected bird isn't a threat to the average American: "That will not be a crisis," Leavitt stressed.

Instead, Ag officials will work closely with farmers to protect poultry from getting sick, destroying entire flocks if the disease appears, quarantining farms and ensuring a disease-free perimeter of about six miles, Johanns said.

Indeed, the world got a scare last month when an Indonesian family apparently spread the virus to one another, killing at least six relatives and probably a seventh and sickening one more. There have been a handful of such in-family cases before, but this was the largest familial cluster ever counted. Genetic testing showed the virus hasn't mutated, and it didn't spread beyond blood relatives.

But Johanns and Leavitt said the situation illustrates the cultural difficulties in battling bird flu: how to educate impoverished families that the backyard chickens responsible for their livelihoods could sicken, even kill them.

In Cambodia, Leavitt said, a health minister told him it was "difficult to get farmers to think a few dead chickens are a serious problem" when 14,000 people there die of rabies in a given year.

Given such stark realities, what's the chance that health workers could contain a bird flu pandemic in its country of origin?

"We'll do all we can to help other nations," he said. But, "the chance of actually being there when the spark happens so you control it is very low."

Officials warn of scarce bird flu vaccine

By LAURAN NEERGAARD, AP Medical Writer

WASHINGTON - States will get to decide how to ration scarce vaccine if bird flu triggers a worldwide epidemic, the nation's health secretary said Tuesday — a decision that means where someone lives could determine their protection.

"Let's acknowledge the fact that for the first six months of any pandemic, we're not going to have a vaccine," Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told The Associated Press.

Once doses start being produced, "this is a battle that'll be fought in thousands of communities simultaneously. What's working in one community may not work as well in another," Leavitt said in a joint interview with Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns.

The U.S. is girding against the deadly H5N1 strain of bird influenza on two fronts: What to do if this virus one day mutates into a form easily spread among people and makes its way here via ill travelers — and, more immediately, what to do if it wings its way here in a migrating wild bird.

Testing of wild birds, a total of 100,000 by year's end, has begun in an attempt to catch the virus early if it does arrive that way — with some labs beginning to use a new test that can tell within just four hours if a bird is possibly infected, Johanns said.

The first announced test results could generate false alarms: Influenza is a common infection in birds, and Johanns cautioned that it still will take about a week to confirm whether a suspect bird really has the deadly Asian strain, so-called "highly pathogenic" H5N1 flu.

Johanns said there have been no worrisome discoveries in the testing to date. But it is considered likely that an infected bird could fly to North America as early as this year, perhaps mingling with native birds on breeding grounds in Alaska who in turn bring H5N1 south and infect other birds.

Even if that happens, an infected bird isn't a threat to the average American, but a signal to protect poultry in the area from infection.

"That will not be a crisis," stressed HHS' Leavitt.

For people, the bigger concern is watching H5N1 for signs that it's mutating to become more easily spread. Today, H5N1 is very difficult for people to catch: It has killed at least 127 people worldwide since it began spreading in Asia in late 2003, and on to Africa and Europe in the past year. At the same time, it is blamed for the death or slaughter of some 200 million birds.

The vast majority of the human casualties involved close contact with infected birds or their droppings. Only in a handful of cases have people apparently spread it to each other while caring for sick relatives, the latest an Indonesian family last month that sparked international concern because it was the largest cluster to date.

In case a human pandemic happens, the government is stockpiling both antiflu medication and a small amount of vaccine that might give some protection until inoculations that are a direct genetic match to the illness could be brewed. That will take six months — even longer to produce enough for everyone, Leavitt warned.

Who gets first doses? Vaccine factory employees and front-line health workers head the Bush administration's list. But scientists are fiercely debating who's next: school-age children who are flu's prime spreaders? The frail elderly who may be at highest risk of death? Police, firefighters, utility workers who would have to keep order and essential services running?

Leavitt said supplies will be divided among the states according to their population. It will be up to the states to decide who is first in line.

"You could make a case for many different segments of the community being a priority," Leavitt said Tuesday. "You could also see different situations in each state that would warrant those decisions being different."

"The federal government has a very important role, and we'll play it," in developing and stockpiling vaccines and drugs, he added. But, "when it comes down to managing the public health in a pandemic situation, it will be up to local public health authorities."

More sobering, Leavitt said there's only a very low chance that doctors could contain a human bird-flu outbreak and thus stop a pandemic at its source.

Asia is considered the likely hot zone, largely because there are so many impoverished families who live in close quarters with chickens — not just the back yard but sometimes inside the house — that they need to survive, and thus they won't willingly slaughter infected flocks.

Leavitt recalled how a health minister in Cambodia told him it was "difficult to get farmers in rural areas to think a few dead chickens are a serious problem" when 14,000 people there died of rabies last year.

The stark reality: "We'll do all we can to help other nations," Leavitt said. But if a bird flu outbreak "occurs anywhere in the world, it's just a matter of weeks before it will be in the United States."

"Let's acknowledge the fact that for the first six months of any pandemic, we're not going to have a vaccine," Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told The Associated Press.

That's the bottom line, and we now live in an age when a virus can be spread around the globe in about 20 hours or so.

There are two good outcomes: The virus never becomes easily communicated between humans, or if it does, it mutates to a form no more deadly than the average influenza virus.

All other scenarios are just variations on a nightmare theme. The current virus has more than a 50% mortality rate, and if it became highly communicable, that percentage would rise because you'd lose health providers and quickly exhaust all medical resources. That's the worst case, and it's unlikely to happen. But it's probably as possible as the scenario where this virus can't, for some reason, ever become communicable to any significant degree between humans. Which would be the best case.

We can't really go on the offense against this virus. It's already spread too far. We can fight defensive battles to protect domestic poultry, but that's a different battle. If it starts to spread between people the game changes. You can't cull entire flocks of people. You try to quarantine, but I have no faith whatsoever that it will work.

Instead, Ag officials will work closely with farmers to protect poultry from getting sick, destroying entire flocks if the disease appears, quarantining farms and ensuring a disease-free perimeter of about six miles, Johanns said.

Ah, nothing like a little ritual killing when all else fails. Voodoo Uber Alles? Good grief, what stupidity.

They are going to kill the poultry owned by farmers within a six mile circle if they find one bird that MIGHT have H5N1.

Well isn't that special.

But, [putting on Columbo voice, overcoat, and hat], there's just one thing I can't figure out. I mean, what are they going to do to the countless birds that NO ONE owns?

They're going to destroy the property of farmers -- their property that stays on their farms -- yet, they are going to do nothing about all the thousands (or hundreds of thousands?) of wild birds, that are free as the driven wind?

They'll be "ensuring a disease-free perimeter of about six miles"? LOL! Gimmeabreak! Are they going to send up "bird-seeking drones" to kill all wild birds? No? Then they will NOT be ""ensuring a disease-free perimeter of about six miles"! It's B.S., pure and simple.

Why aren't they going to do anything about the birds that are the actual carriers?

Because they can't do anything about them!

But, to ensure that "the great unwashed" think they're doing something, they will play out "The Slaughter of the Innocents, Poultry Style."

I wonder who's gonna PAY for the birds that are subjected to the ritual "feel-good"/"accomplish-nothing" sacrifice?

I took a gander (har har, a "gander") at some poultry-raiser boards. Guess what? People are planning on bucking the system. They are planning on what one of them called "a variation on 'shoot, shovel, and shut-up.'" If they find a sick bird, they are NOT going to "call it in" (and thus ensure the loss of their own flocks, and the flocks of every other farmer in a six mile perimeter). They are going to kill it, burn it, and bury the ashes -- and say nothing.

This stupidity is going to be very counterproductive!

When you tell someone that if he thinks he might have one sick bird, he should "call in the authorities", so that they can destroy his livelihood, and the livelihood of his neighbors for miles in every direction, just exactly what are they expecting people to do?

None of these people want to be known as "the sumbitch who wiped us all out because his chicken caught a cold."

Combine that with the fact that a lot of small operations have been working for years -- decades in some cases -- carefully building up breeds that cannot be "replaced" (other than by starting all over again from scratch), and you have a tremendous disincentive to "reporting."

The M.O. is nothing new (see "Slaughter of The Innocents"). Whenever government feels that unique combination of 1) helpless, and 2) on the spot, they're gonna do something that's generally pointless, destructive, and, "looks like we're doing something."

Watch for this stuff to NOT appear on the news.

(If this was how they decided to "fight the war on drugs", they'd put up posters saying "Think your kid is taking drugs? Call us and we'll check it out!" If they find an aspirin (a "white tablet of unknown origin"), they'll kill your kid, then they'll kill your other kids, then they'll kill every other kid in the neighborhood -- and then leave, thanking you for helping keep the community drug-free. Reminds me of a movie, called "Brazil.")

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