Replies

'HILLARY'S BIGGEST PROBLEM... SHE'S OLD NEWS'

"I think the reason somebody like Mark Warner is doing better, I think the reason they picked Tim Kaine, for example, to give the response to the State of the Union is because hillary's biggest problem isn't the scandals, it isn't her being a polarizing figure, which she is. I think it's that she's old news. I think the Democrats are looking for somebody new. They're looking for a new face. And that's what they think they need."
young, unidentified reporter on The Chris Matthews Show
VIDEO

The current Dem nominee wagering numbers from Intrade/Tradesports.

Clinton = 45.64 = $4.65
Warner = 20.722 = $2.07
Gore = 12.813 = $1.28
Edwards = 5.362 = $0.54

With Intrade/Tradesports, if your candidate wins (e.g. Hillary becomes President), you win $10.00 less your bet amount, i.e. $10.00 - $4.65 today = $5.35 (you can wager multiple contracts). If you lose, your wager expires at 0 ($0.00) the day after the election.

The numbers change every day, though this is a long-term wager so is stable for weeks and months at a time (Warner went through a "doubling" period last fall an has remained steady since then).

Then we have the slate of losers: Powell and Lieberman are not judged at all viable by the Intrade/Tradesports marketplace.

10:17:32PM IST

	Best to Sell	Best to Buy

Best to Sell

Best to Buy

Contract BQty Bid Offer AQty Last Vol Chge

61

86

45.7

39.0k

+0.1

22

3

20.7

11.9k

-1.2

8

3

5.2

7792

0

11

11

12.9

26.6k

-0.0

1

2

3.1

7869

0

13

1

2.5

6630

0

44

3

0.9

5559

0

98

483

1.5

6073

+0.1

98

21

1.2

7905

0

5

4

3.5

11.3k

0

85

26

0.4

5167

0

88

10

1.0

6334

0

8

60

0.5

5981

+0.1

1033

2

0.1

6711

0

387

222

0.1

4104

0

Trade

2008DEM.NOM.SCHWEITZER

416

0.2

0.3

10

0.2

3948

0

354

26

0.2

4261

0

60

26

0.2

4294

0

0

84

0.1

4356

0

201

200

0.3

4098

0

203

200

0.1

3838

0

333

15

0.1

4709

0

0

165

0.1

3508

0

0

655

0.1

2174

0

Trade

2008DEM.NOM.BLAGOJEVICH

0

-

0.1

949

0.1

106

0

Show Prices in Dollars

By the way, anyone can play around with the Tradesports numbers and charts here (without an account and without betting):

https://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=23190&eventSelect=23190&updateList=true&showExpired=false

Click on the names of nominees and another window will popup with interesting price charts going back more than a year, so you can see how each "candidate" has fared over time.

Over on the left menu, you can reach a similar chart for Republican candiates.

fyi