Rice talks offer forces mullahs into corner

Times Online ^ | 6/4/06 | Sarah Baxter

[LibWhacker]

THE American secretary of state Condoleezza Rice has offered to sit down in person with Iranian officials if it will help Iran to suspend its nuclear enrichment work.

Holding out the prospect of the highest level face-to-face contact since the 1979 Islamic revolution which overthrew the Shah, she said: “I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the ministers meet at some point.”

Charles Kupchan, an expert on Iran at the Council on Foreign Relations, said: “It’s a big deal for the secretary of state to say we’ll talk to you. There has been a big changing of the guard in the administration and Condoleezza Rice has strengthened her hold.”

Rice’s tactic could help to isolate the mullahs. A senior administration official said: “If Iran rejects the package, it will be clear they are intent on acquiring a nuclear capability.”

Some neoconservatives believe this is a precondition for gathering support for toppling the regime and ultimately military strikes, should other tactics fail. Washington is pursuing a dual-track strategy of pushing Iran into a corner diplomatically while maintaining pressure for regime change.

The State Department is opening a listening post this summer inside its US embassy in Dubai to monitor events in Iran. America’s top State Department negotiator on Iran, Nicholas Burns, recently compared it to the Riga station in Latvia after the Bolshevik revolution, when America had no diplomatic contact with Moscow.

Recruiting for the Dubai “Regional Presence Office” began in March. According to a State Department document, the head of the Dubai station will be expected to “assist in locating pro-democracy groups inside and outside Iran” and “seek ways to use State Department funding to support Iranian political and civic operations”.

Other missions are being installed for Farsi speakers in Baku, Istanbul, Frankfurt and London to liaise with opposition groups.

The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, insists foreign pressure will not force Iran to give up its nuclear research. The Iranians are expecting Javier Solana, the European Union’s top foreign affairs official, to fly to Tehran this week to urge them to accept the offer of the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany of a package of incentives to halt its uranium enrichment programme.

Washington’s offer of direct talks has dismayed many Iranian dissidents. One opposition politician in Paris said: “We visited Washington and felt there was an agreement that the regime in Tehran must be stopped. Now we don’t know. Ahmadinejad will feel stronger and so will the regime.”

Dissidents are afraid Washington’s support for regime change is being traded for talks. Akbar Atri, an Iranian student leader in exile, said: “What the Islamic Republic wants from these negotiations is a promise of security. This means the United States and others would have to give up even verbal support for democrats in Iran.”

Michael Rubin, of the American Enterprise Institute think tank, also believes the offer of talks is a mistake, saying: “Some people, including those I’m normally allied with, believe we’ve got to show the world we’ve tried every means to negotiate with Iran, but Europe has an infinite ability to make us jump through more hoops.”

[patriot_wes]

"The American secretary of state Condoleezza Rice has offered to sit down in person with Iranian officials if it will help Iran to suspend its nuclear enrichment work."

So she sits down and gets lied to like Jimmy Carter and the North Koreans - Big Deal!

[LibLieSlayer]

The BIG DEAL is that she knows it, and will deal from strength in that knowledge.

Catuh believed them, because he was a dumb-a$$!

LLS

[OldFriend]

It was a brilliant tactic to offer direct talks. It puts the ball in the Iranian's court.

[JohnBovenmyer]

1. Hold talks somewhere we can guarantee Condi's safety.
2. Have her wear something that fits Freeper, not Mullah, fashion sense.
3. Televise the talks live here and into Iran.
4. Watch pretty infidel girl intimidate and make fools of bigoted blowhards.

Even our media couldn't ruin this. They might not admit it, but even those with certified Clinton kneepads would understand the dynamics and the young Iranians would love it.

[cmsgop]

Yes in this instance I agree, Lets see what happens

[RightWhale]

If Iran rejects the package, it will be clear they are intent on acquiring a nuclear capability

In other news, today the sun rose in the east and seems to be moving toward the west.

[OldFriend]

The first thing the kook did was insist that the package being offered was not acceptable.

Then Tony Snow pointed out that NO package had been offered.

Going to be hard to get the media to report the truth but we can continue to do so here and hope our media talkers can get off their soapbox long enough to discuss this issue.

[MikefromOhio]

Do you honestly think that Condi is naive as Carter was?

Come on now, have a little faith.

[nomorelurker]

As in the thin heels black leather boots she had on for the German trip some weeks ago? She could show up representing the US dressed that way and might just freak out the Mullahs enough.

[Nuc1]

More delay to let em git the bomb. I just don't get it.

[Joan Kerrey]

If Iran rejects the package, it will be clear they are intent on acquiring a nuclear capability

Haven't the Iranians said as much. This game of "talks" just makes diplomats think they're making a difference.

Jeez, how about just taking Iran's threats seriously? How many years has the west played this game. Islamofascist are just that. They will negotiate ONLY when they're weakened and then as a delay tactic. It's in the Koran...believe it.

[popdonnelly]

"Some neoconservatives believe this is a precondition for gathering support for toppling the regime and ultimately military strikes, should other tactics fail."

Support from who? Certainly not from other countries. We tried that with the "weapons of mass destruction" argument. In the end, the people we were trying to impress with that argument didn't support us anyway. Diplomatic gambits aimed at our supposed friends aren't going to work. If we have to get rid of the Iranian regime, just go ahead and do it, and stop fantasizing that the rest of the World is going to agree with us.

[MikefromOhio]

We don't want to fight another war if we don't have too.

You know it and I know it.

Now eventually I think we will have too, but we still have work to be done in Iraq.

[patriot_wes]

"Do you honestly think that Condi is naive as Carter was?"

Is she not brokering the partitioning of the land of Israel and accommodating the Palestinian terrorists in their efforts to destroy Zion?

[TXnMA]

We don't want to fight another war if we don't have too.

The big difference is that we could probably tip the balance in Iran with precision airstrikes only. We don't need to put boots on the ground in Iran. All we need to do is weaken Ahmajinedad and the Mullahs' centralized power sufficiently, and the Iranian people will overthrow them.

If that throws Iran into chaos for a decade -- so what? As long as they can't get their act together, they will be too busy to mess with us...

[MikefromOhio]

ummm right...whatever you say....

[MikefromOhio]

The big difference is that we could probably tip the balance in Iran with precision airstrikes only. We don't need to put boots on the ground in Iran. All we need to do is weaken Ahmajinedad and the Mullahs' centralized power sufficiently, and the Iranian people will overthrow them.

We hope. That sounds like wishful thinking to me and you KNOW that the military brass won't see it that way.

If that throws Iran into chaos for a decade -- so what? As long as they can't get their act together, they will be too busy to mess with us...

Or it might be like kicking over a hornet's nest.

[section9]

Precision airstrikes would rally the people to the regime.

People under attack by outsiders tend to rally to the flag, you know that.

The regime will be weakened, over time, by the example of a neighboring democracy. Or, tangentally, the regime may be compelled to start a war, gambling that it can provoke the U.S. into ineffectual pinprick attacks. Bush and Condi wouldn't miss the chance to take the entire regime down, instead. It will happen one of those two ways. I am betting that a regime of mellenialist fanatics will always feel compelled in the end to rush history by making the first hostile act.

Be Seeing You,

Chris