Posted on 06/02/2006 5:26:27 AM PDT by Coop
With all the invective it has spewed at the antiwar Jack Murtha, why isn't the GOP helping Diana Irey, his opponent in November?
Pennsylvania congressional candidate Diana Irey meets with reporters at the National Press Club in Washington, May 24, 2006. (Event thread here)
Last winter, Karl Rove promised his fellow Republicans that their party would win the congressional midterm election on the issues of war and national security. Perhaps he will still be proved right. But six months later, the White House political strategist and his party have backed away from confronting the most outspoken and credible Democratic critic of the Iraq war.
Despite all the invective fired at Rep. John Murtha, he is cruising toward reelection in his blue-collar southwestern Pennsylvania district without a serious challenge. (The socially conservative, pro-labor Democrat hasn't even bothered to put up a functioning campaign Web site yet.)
(Excerpt) Read more at salon.com ...
BTTT
And so it begins. (grinning wryly) The "official" end of Mrs. Irey's "grace period". Welcome to the wide, wonderful world of Pennsylvania "hard ball politics". Believe me, it's "no holds barred" and there's no depths to which it may not plunge :(
"LOL! I really think Murtha and the Democrats believe this "cruising" nonsense, too."
Well of course they did (the Salon article indicates to me that someone *finally* noticed her ;) and why wouldn't they? After all, for the vast majority of his 32 years, the GOP didn't bother to run anybody at all against him.
From the Salon article:
"Whether or not he actually thought his candidate could defeat Murtha, he must at least have expected that Republicans and conservatives would give generously to Murtha's opponent. If so, he was badly mistaken."
Oh good grief, if Brabender is really so "experienced" then he oughta know the "rules of the game" by now. ;)
"Where is the PAC funding?"
Probably not coming, along with any *serious* support from the state GOP. And it's nothing "personal", just SOP around here. Starting to "get the picture" now? Since she's been in "politics" for some time now, I would like to hope that Mrs. Irey understands the way things work in PA (aka the "Mike Fisher syndrome") and is not holding her breath waiting for "the party" to help her out.
"Where are the prominent GOP politicians raising funds and raising her profile? "
I mean no offense Coop, but as far as people around here are concerned, this is a "local" race and most of those you mentioned would not "help" her. At best, the only "big names" I can think of that might help are Pat Toomey and Dick Thornburg? Big names might work in other areas, but around here, a grass-roots approach will work best.
Right now,the biggest things that Mrs. Irey has going for her are
1. Murtha's mouth- "cold blooded killers" doesn't fly well in a district heavily populated with military families(and no matter what branch of the service we're connected with we *all* feel like we've been slapped in the face)
2. exposure on the national talk show circuit - western PA is a "heavy" listening audience and this counteracts the "shutout" of the local media
3. the recent redrawing of the 12th. This is *not* the physical district that elected Murtha for 30 of his 32 years. Mrs. Irey has a proven track record on her side of the new 12th and while I'd need to see demographic data to analyse further, I have no reason to believe that Murtha is all that strong in her area.
Just telling it like it is from down on the ground folks. :)
But it's most assuredly not a local race. If it were, we wouldn't be having this cyberconversation. And Salon wouldn't have published this article.
"And to answer the likely question from folks who haven't been following this race closely -- John Kerry won PA's 12th district with a paltry 51% of the vote in 2004."
And as I recall, Bush carried it in 2000. It's not so much that Kerry barely won it, but that Bush lost it.
"Murtha's electoral success has come from his conservative leanings, which have all but disappeared over the past year or two."
Yup, more than a few tongues are wagging, wondering what's *really* behind all this. ;)
But the district was re-drawn between the elections, so a true comparison isn't available. But if Dubya did win it (I honestly can't recall), then Kerry winning the new district (which supposedly was made slightly more Pubbie) would certainly reinforce your point of Bush losing support from '00 to '04.
That is not the question.. the question is what is the best way to spend available money.
As a member of the RNC I can tell you that there is never enough money. Candidates have to get themselves into striking distance. As we move into the final stages of a campaign, the national and state parties will look at all races. Funds will be allocated for those races in which the Republican candidate has a reasonable chance to win.
Time after time I have heard sacreficial lambs in districts Gerrymandered to be 70/30 Democrat cry that they are not given any state or federal party money. The reason is they don't have a chance to win. Neither party will put money into a campaign that can't be won.
Party money will not be spent in races that are already won either. Sure thing candidates are expected to raise money and donate it to other candidates who will need money to win.
But it is a hard cold fact of life. Candidates in both parties have to prove themselves.. only then will they get support and money from the state and national parties.
It was in the context of the post I replied to.
And getting support to host fundraisers is a related, yet separate issue.
If the anger of the veterans living in his District is equal to the anger expressed by the veterans here on FR, I believe he's in more trouble than his people are letting on. We have to make sure that anger does not subside.
But it's most assuredly not a local race. If it were, we wouldn't be having this cyberconversation. And Salon wouldn't have published this article.
Agreed, but it's how many voters in the 12th view it and they are the ones that vote. :) There is the potential for "backlash" against what they view as excessive "outside interference" from either side.
Again, I'm merely playing "devil's advocate" and speaking from 30+ years of experience in the area. :) As I said before, it's early on for "campaigning" around here and Murtha's never had a credible "opponent" to deal with that I can recall, hence the attempt to discredit and dismiss Mrs. Irey early on, relegating her to "ho hum" status, as that's the only prior "experience" he's had.
I can't speak about the whole 12th, only my little corner of it and I'm grinning because I could go to work today and talk with 50 voters(and we take our voting seriously around here) and perhaps one would have heard of "Salon", much less FR. :) OTOH, I'm grinning because it's obvious that "someone" at least *suspects* that Mrs. Irey is a credible candidate and the Salon article is a fishing expedition to gauge "response" here and other online places? If so, it won't tell them much. :)
The next few months are going to be interesting, to say the least, especially if Haditha "backfires" on Murtha. ;)
From a political perspective, I think that's exactly what Murtha should do. Once he starts publicly acknowledging Ms. Irey (like Salon just did), we'll know she's really gaining ground.
You're right about the risk of outside interference, but of course that could work against both candidates. As of a few weeks ago Murtha had more out-of-state money (percentage wise and total) than Ms. Irey did.
Well, Mrs local PA Ranger, maybe if a few Veterans start standing on the corners of your beautiful little PA towns with signs appropriate to Murtha's latest pronouncements, it might help. That type of hands on politicing might raise some awareness of Mrs Irey's value vis a vis Murtha. What do you think?
One exception to that statement occured in the Florida governor's race in 2002. Terry McAuliffe sank millions into the Bill McBride campaign, after lots of maneuvering to knock Janet Reno out of the race. That was money that would have definitely been much better spent by the democrats elsewhere.
If McAuliffe and the rest of the party hadn't been so blinded by their hatred of all things George and Jeb Bush, they would have seen that McBride never had a prayer of beating Jeb Bush. McBride was a one-note guy whose songsheet came from the teacher's unions, and he was an awful candidate to boot. He closed to within about five points of Jeb Bush sometime in July or August 2002, thanks to non-stop media hype and Jeb bashing, and that was as close as he came. Then came that disastrous debate performance, and he sank like a stone, but even before that he had already peaked and was sliding.
All that money thrown at a lost cause may well be the main reason why McAuliffe is no longer DNC chair. Except that Howard Dean, from what I've read, also likes to throw party money and resources into hopeless causes. In Dean's case, though, I suspect he's doing it to bolster his position by buying off the state democrat parties.
Oh rest assured, I'm well aware that she's on her own. ;) That's why my "donation" will go *directly* to her campaign.
Unfortunately, the per capita income around here is barely over $25,000/yr, so that means a lot of small donations and probably lots of fundraisers. Yet another reason why it's so important for FR to get the good word out. :)
And now I'm off to earn some of that future "donation". :)
Well then, work twice as hard so you can give twice as much! ;-)
You know, all this benefit Irey's getting from FR exposure sort of puts the lie to your tagline. FReepers are lining up to send her money, not just talking about it.
"Well, Mrs local PA Ranger, maybe if a few Veterans start standing on the corners of your beautiful little PA towns with signs appropriate to Murtha's latest pronouncements, it might help. That type of hands on politicing might raise some awareness of Mrs Irey's value vis a vis Murtha. What do you think?"
I think it will help just fine, in the fall. This is *not* going to "blow over". Many are *personally* offended and will not forget, but between now and then, outside of "Flag Day" and the "4th of July", I can get as much traction out of "Murtha's folly" and other issues of local importance, such as continued population decline and job losses, while letting Murtha's mouth dig his own grave. :)
And now, I *really* do have to go. :)
LOL! You'll please forgive me if I disagree.
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