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Gold ready to crash?
Market Watch.com ^ | Jun 1, 2006 | Jesse Czelusta

Posted on 06/01/2006 8:10:31 AM PDT by Grampa Dave

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To: Christopher Lincoln
"If you lived on a deserted island you would have no use for money of any kind. But, luckily for you, you don't live on a deserted island."

Yes, however in the scenario stated the monetary system has collapsed. Money will be worthless as will gold. You may find someone to exchange food or necessities with you for your gold but I would say you would do much better investing in steel and lead from Sam Colt's outfit or from the manufactures like Ruger and Remington. Because you can have all the gold in the world but if the system has collapsed then there will be no law enforcement to protect you and your gold.

Any how if we collapse down to that level you may as well be on a deserted island in fact I would think your chances of survival in those first few months would be greatly increased by being isolated.

241 posted on 06/01/2006 8:33:20 PM PDT by Mad Dawgg ("`Eddies,' said Ford, `in the space-time continuum.' `Ah,' nodded Arthur, `is he? Is he?'")
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To: GregoryFul
ING vs Gold
242 posted on 06/01/2006 8:41:50 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Why are protectionists so bad at math?)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

Nice dodging of the issue there loser. I don't trust the government.

Then again, your aggregate of Americans (most present company excepted) put people like Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton in office along with managing to keep folks like Kennedy, Feinswine and Boxer et. al. in for decades.

If you want to stick your head in the sand, feel free...


243 posted on 06/01/2006 10:46:17 PM PDT by Axenolith (Got Au? Ag?)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
Each currency has it's own set of value and at this point in time, bucking World History, the non-gold or silver based U.S. dollar is the most sought form of currency on the planet.

For the time being it is. The average survival time post gold decoupling is 32 years for a currency and we are just coming on 33. You care to make a wager on it lasting out more than say, 7-10 more years?

244 posted on 06/01/2006 11:05:14 PM PDT by Axenolith (Got Au? Ag?)
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To: Axenolith
The average survival time post gold decoupling is 32 years for a currency and we are just coming on 33.

Interesting stat. Do you have any back up? Or was it just something you saw on a goldbug website?

245 posted on 06/02/2006 7:04:02 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Why are protectionists so bad at math?)
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To: redgolum
Great! More excuses to buy ammo, camping gear, and tools! BTW, the "unibomber style forest enclave" is known as my deer hunting shack. Suppose I have to upgrade that to.

No offense. I just had the image of an extreme hard core survivalist in my mind. Some of those folks are way out there. The basic concept is fine. I'll change the wording from " unibomber style forest enclave" to "well-stocked sylvan retreat" :)

246 posted on 06/02/2006 8:15:24 AM PDT by SupplySider
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To: Axenolith
The dollar has lost about 98.5% since the FEDs inception and it's accelerating.

A shocking and underappreciated fact.

My grandfather left my father a $100 a month annuity around 1920. A few years ago when my dad passed away, he was still getting that $100, but the inflation adjusted value would have been in the thousands. Too bad that annuity wasn't denominated in gold instead of dollars.

That bit of government theft, multipled millions of times, financed the welfare state and many a reelection campaign.

247 posted on 06/02/2006 8:31:53 AM PDT by SupplySider
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To: RBroadfoot
If you have faith in the US$ despite massive trade deficits, government deficits, and ballooning household debt levels, it's only natural that you think that gold prices will collapse.

I guess that depends on how you feel about the massive capital account surplus, government deficits that, as a percentage of GDP, are less than they were under Reagan and a household net worth (that's assets minus debt) that has more than doubled since 1995, and now stands at a record $52 trillion. It's hard to claim we're mired in debt with our net worth growing so rapidly.

suspect that foreigners will tire of keeping their trade balances in US Treasury securities

The fact that all this capital is flowing into the US is a crystal clear market signal that our economy is solid and is presently the best place to invest. Money flows to where it's treated best. What else are they going to do with their dollars? Where else will they invest? China? Japan? The EU? Those are not places I'd be investing but to each his own.

248 posted on 06/02/2006 10:49:49 AM PDT by Mase
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To: TEEHEE

Did you hear about this?
http://www.progressiveu.org/172935-how-low-will-the-dollar-go


249 posted on 06/03/2006 3:50:22 PM PDT by bjs1779
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To: SupplySider
That bit of government theft

Just a 'bit'. That's sad.

250 posted on 06/03/2006 3:54:56 PM PDT by bjs1779
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse
The impending crash of gold will be an excellent buying opportunity, allowing maximum profit when it goes to $10,000 an ounce!

IMHO gold will be close to $1000 oz by the end of this year and silver will be at $19 - $20 an oz.

251 posted on 06/03/2006 9:34:38 PM PDT by Sic Luceat Lux
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To: Blzbba
And the beauty of numismatics (rare silver/gold coins) is that YOU PAY NO TAXES when you cash in.

Agree.

252 posted on 06/03/2006 9:46:58 PM PDT by Sic Luceat Lux
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To: Toddsterpatriot
I'm tweaking the ignorant goldbugs.

Hmmm, let me see now Todd. Over the past five months I have purchased/taken delivery of - 3,000 ounces of Englehard .999 silver bars at $8.50 and another 2,000 ounces of Englehard .999 silver bars at $11.45. Then another 300 ounces of Englehard silver bars at $12.50 and lastly, another 500 ounces Englehard @ $14.75.

Todd, I still have all of my above silver bars -do the math please; how am I doing/ how ingnorant am I?

253 posted on 06/03/2006 9:59:16 PM PDT by Sic Luceat Lux
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To: Sic Luceat Lux
You are holding 5,800 ounces of silver, and you've spent $59,525. At the present close, it's worth $70,180, minus trading fees (which, if you're selling, can really sneak up on you--I've seen fees as high as 10% for completely closing out a position). So, your investment may be worth as little as $63,162. So, that's a range of $3,637 to $10,655 (assuming zero fees) in profit, minus capital gains taxes (since you can spend nearly $60K in five months on this, I'll assume you're in the 28% bracket). So, that means a maximum return of $7,671.60, or a minimum of $2,618.64.

That's a return on investment of anywhere from 4.4% to 12.8%, before inflation. That ranges from "not great" to "Pretty good."

Now, let's hypothetically take this to $20 an ounce. That $116,000, minus $11,600 in trading fees to $104,400, minus capital gains taxes to $75,168. Respectable return, there.

But if silver doesn't do what you expect it to do--the extremely high inventories on hand indicate that this is a speculative bubble--before you sell, then you wind up having spend $59,525 to get 5,800 ounces of a metal that needs frequent polishing...

254 posted on 06/04/2006 10:11:48 AM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse ( ~()):~)>)
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To: Sic Luceat Lux
IMHO gold will be close to $1000 oz by the end of this year and silver will be at $19 - $20 an oz.

Possible, in the case that the price of gold in Euros, Yen and Pounds remains about what it is today.

255 posted on 06/04/2006 10:16:17 AM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse; Beelzebubba; Cicero; M. Espinola; ndt; antaresequity; RightWhale; Travis McGee; ..
At the present close, it's worth $70,180, minus trading fees (which, if you're selling, can really sneak up on you--I've seen fees as high as 10% for completely closing out a position).

I'm sorry Pale Horse, but you'll have to redo all of your above figures.

Since I purchased all of my silver bars from a coin dealer, there were/are no trading fees. To clarify a bit more, let me use for this illustration -my first 3,000 ounce purchase (this past late January I believe it was).

That morning, I called my friendly coin dealer (who has been in business since 1978) and that particular day when I confirmed those three 1,000 ounce bars (.999 pure silver weighing approx. 65 lb each) -he said silver was at $8.35. He then said he would charge (fees, as you call them) fifteen (15 cents) over spot. So, $8.35 plus his .15 cents put the three 1,000 ounce silver bars at $8.50 even/per ounce. (no other fees and of course, no sales tax of any kind is required).

Now, I already knew the answer to my next question (roughly) -but since you don't know - I then asked him - how much under spot will you be quoting me when I want to sell these three bars. He said that typically he will quote .20 cents off/under spot.

And btw, I was in the numismatic business (coin dealer) for eleven years, so I am familiar with all of the above selling/buying of metals/coins.

[as we all now see Pale Horse, the fees -as you call them- are only about two percent (2%) - and not 20%]

Pale Horse, for the benefit of all readers, will you now kindly take the time to -redo your figures- and see what you come up with. Thanks.

256 posted on 06/04/2006 11:11:19 AM PDT by Sic Luceat Lux
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse
PaleHorse, here is an ongoing silver bullion thread and in it somewhere are different posts of mine -which describe how to purchase silver/gold from coin dealers:

"Silver shines but equities decline (Silver breaks $10/ounce! 22-year high!)"

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1588981/posts?q=1&&page=251

257 posted on 06/04/2006 11:31:58 AM PDT by Sic Luceat Lux
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse
That's a return on investment of anywhere from 4.4% to 12.8%, before inflation. That ranges from "not great" to "Pretty good."

Not to 'beat a dead horse' so to speak, but I just noticed your above. This "return"...if I sold all of my silver tomorrow (Monday) - would be for a time period of five (5) months - not one year. :)

258 posted on 06/04/2006 11:35:58 AM PDT by Sic Luceat Lux
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To: Doe Eyes

Yes, I see what you mean/bttt.


259 posted on 06/04/2006 11:37:04 AM PDT by Sic Luceat Lux
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To: Toddsterpatriot

It's pleasant Sunday afternoon; awaiting your reply?


260 posted on 06/04/2006 11:41:02 AM PDT by Sic Luceat Lux
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