Posted on 05/29/2006 11:43:01 AM PDT by Torie
GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race
Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
I look at it a bit more statistically. In a normal environment, you lose two thirds of the lean Dems, half the tossup, a third of the leans, and maybe 5%-10% of the likelies. So, per your list, minus 15-17 Pubbies, with a pickup of 3 Dem seats.
Your method of looking at it is probably better. My goal is to get all those lost seats up to the top of the list before election day. ;^)
PS. And I'm sure a lot will change between now and November. For instance, as of May 29 of 2004 the IL-08 district was still rated Likely or Safe GOP, depending on the pundit. IN-09 was rated Lean or Likely Dem.
Yep, this election is a toughie to predict. Real tough.
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."
Just a bit of a walk down memory lane for you, although maybe you are too young for that one.
I notice the link has an item on the CIA class of 1985 that mentions that Democrats are hyping a challenger to Mike Rogers of Michigan-08. Do you think it's total hype, or does it merit inclusion on the watch list?
Michigan's a weird state this year and may be swimming slightly against the tide, also, the district's not a good target for Democrats.
ping
Marcinkowski cannot beat Rogers if he's outspent 20-1, as was the case on March 31. That's why it hasn't made my Watch List.
This is really depressing news. If Busby wins, there could be national repercussions.
PS. If Marcinkowski shows some decent fundraising numbers in the next quarterly report, then I would put MI-08 on the Watch List at least. The same goes for the next-door MI-09 district, which probably has a bit more potential to become competitive, for that matter. There isn't too much else to keep an eye on that's not on the list already. Basically AZ-01, IL-15, KS-02, LA-07, MI-08, and MI-09 are the only others I can think of any kind of argument for, so they're basically all on my mental watch list, but all fall short right now. A flimsy argument could be made for NY-27 and SD-AL on the Dem side.
Yep, me and my family....we live in the 50th District.
That's a Watergate flashback, right?
Yep, this election is a toughie to predict. Real tough.
In one sense, I think it's quite clear: The GOP is in dire straits. Everyone just seems to be waiting to see what the Dems will come up with this time to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They've been doing that so well for so long that everyone's reluctant to bet against them. ;^)
If anyone would solidly point out her pre-primary record and her post-primary record....they'd win.
She's a Kerry liberal in RINO's clothing. She visually portrays herself as this sweet little thing that while baking cookies to take to her school class as a teacher, she cares about border security and the problems we're facing with the lobbyists ruling Washington. NOTHING IS SAID about her connection to MoveOn.org!!!!
I'm voting Bilbray for 6 months, and in the Republican Primary (which is on the SAME ballot--very confusing) I'm looking for a real conservative to vote for. Bill Hauf seems to be our only chance at getting one.
I'm politically mad as he11 and I want the good sense of Sensenbrenner for my Party from THIS day forward!
You are SO right!
His opponent is claiming to be against amnesty but for Mcains comprehensive bill..the ads are over the line, Bilbray is getting reamed as a lobbyist who missed votes on immigration when he was a rep before...Busby is doing a Bush on amnesty..lol...lots of money being spent here...the lobbyist thing is hurting Bilbray people are tired of paid reps...and I think they see him as just another pea in the pod...
Thanks. I should have guessed you'd already considered and disposed of the possibility for good reason. :)
Why would Kolbe's district be leaning Dem; I thought there were more registered Republicans in the district.
Yes, it will energize the Democrats fund-raising nationally and bring an avalanche of funds into other House and Senate races, which could help to tip the balance in toss-up races.
Well, that's because he is.
Why?
If the people of the 50th vote for Busby (a liberal), then they are at fault.
Bilbray may very well be another pea in the pod, but between the liberal Busby and the pea-in-the-pod Bilbray, they both combined for 59% of the vote.
Don't you think the voters of the 50th are off on this?
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